Subject:

Thune theory

From:
"Alexander Snyder-Mackler" smacklera@gmail.com
To:
"BB" 261penn@gmail.com, "Hunter Biden" hbiden@rosemontseneca.com
Date:
2010-07-27 23:28
Attachments:
Scale back memo.doc
Beau,
Per our discussions last week, I put together the attached memo outlining what our version of John Thune's "shutdown" would look like. I must say though, for the record, that I am morally opposed to thinking this way and wrote this with one hand while holding my nose with the other. But in the interest of staying several steps ahead and prepared for anything, I did it. There is some information in here that is a bit sensitive and has not been discussed with the full group, so I wanted to run the theories by you and then we can discuss with the larger group if you feel comfortable.
A

CONFIDENTIAL

TO: Beau

FR: ASM

RE: Thune theory

 

As we progress towards September 1st, we have discussed the possibility of a fall without an opponent. Let me first state, unequivocally, that even entertaining this hypothetical is anathema to every bone in my body. But, in the interest of always looking ahead and being prepared, I’ve laid out the options for our campaign to scale back further after September 1st – if we don’t have an opponent.

 

What the campaign look like externally?

There is a fine line between scaling back a campaign (being sure not to be accused of running up the score) and appearing as if you’re taking re-election for granted and thus insulting the voters (which could potentially be as harmful as appearing to run up the score). I assume you would keep the core campaign activities in your regular schedule – some of which you do in off-years:

·      Door-knocking with local candidates

·      Parades, parish nights, festivals, etc.

·      Attending all debates

·      Speak at as many local events as you’re invited to, especially those involving your issues

We would have to balance our main goal of the campaign – continuing to establish you as your own brand – with an added objective of trimming down our external efforts. Additionally, this could reinforce the idea of you being above politics (themes already reinforced by both being AG and serving in Iraq).

Helping Democratic candidates: One potential danger is fulfilling the fear of Democrats (and hope of Republicans) that giving you a free pass would hurt Coons, Carney, and the whole Democratic ticket.  Our pivot point would have to be not that Beau is packing up and going home; rather, that he is focusing his personal time and campaign resources in a broader direction: helping the full ticket. That means door-knocking with candidates, headlining fundraisers, and probably writing checks to local campaigns (money we won’t be able to use in a federal campaign, anyway) if we have enough cash after the current fundraising push.

We could also make special efforts with the Coordinated Campaign, which the statewide candidates and party insiders would greatly appreciate. For example, we could offer our expansive Riverfront space as the staging location for all Wilmington city lit-drops and other weekend efforts. Also, we could go above and beyond in raising money for a cash-strapped Coordinated. Our commitment right now is $25K, which Dennis said would be fine (our ’08 commitment was $250K). If we could find a way to raise even $40K-$50K into the Coordinated, we would be heroes. The party can take contributions in large chunks ($20K-$30K) from most places.

 

What would the campaign look like internally?

Between consultants, staff, office expenses, and money already spent, there is limited wiggle room in a budget that currently accounts for just over $600K. There are a few places to cut (a poll being the biggest) that would get us closer to $550-$575K for the year. Mike D has also offered that we reduce his pay for September-November – “you can’t justify paying me that much if you don ’t have an opponent.” That would save about $30K. Also, this has us paying Dennis for September-November, a time when we may not be fundraising at all in this scenario (see below).

After that, though, the decisions get tougher. We have only three paid staff. Do we want billboards ($15K)? And none of this includes traditional paid media, though if we decide to scale back the whole campaign, that would have to mean no TV, radio, or even mail. The only expenditure I could envision would be limited online purchasing.

 

Events

Our current campaign plan calls for some bigger events in September/October. Assuming we want to hold these events no matter what (which is what I recommend), we should schedule them in August so they are set in stone before the final filing deadline. Some of the events include:

·      A labor rally upstate

·      A few Beef n Beers (perhaps one in each county)

·      One Women for Beau event

·      FOP BBQ

 

 

Fundraising:

Clearly scaling back the campaign would force us to halt any overt fundraising – not to mention it would make fundraising that much more difficult. This primarily means that we will have to plan to have almost all our fundraising done before September 1st.

Perhaps we could hold previously schedule events (most likely out-of-state, to reduce the possibility of contributors hearing about a scale-down) within the first couple of weeks of September. After that, it could be politically problematic to schedule fundraising events after saying you will scale down your campaign.

For his part, Thune has played the magnanimity card: By not fundraising actively in South Dakota for his own campaign, Thune said he hopes other Republican candidates will receive money that might have been harder to come by had Democrats fielded a candidate against him. “We don't have to do that now, so we're backing off in terms of fundraising so the other candidates can raise money out there,” he said.

 

Conclusion

If (knock on wood, cross your fingers) we end up without an opponent, we have options in place to tone down our campaign – but it requires some thinking and planning in the 6 weeks leading up to September 1st so we have the flexibility to make the proper changes on the fly.

Our biggest concern would be the balancing act of downgrading our campaign vs. appearing to take re-election for granted.

Needless to say, we must be – and remain – prepared for someone to jump into the race.




--

Alexander Snyder-Mackler
(302) 598-8678

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