By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)
SENATE EXCLUSIVE I - CONTRAST AND HOMAGE: North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr will unveil the newest ad of his reelection campaign today, the first spot to draw an explicit contrast between Burr and Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall. Like Burr's previous ad - and like Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan's famed 2008 ads against Elizabeth Dole - this one features two older men, sitting in rocking chairs on a front porch talking about the election. Man One begins the commercial by saying, simply: "Six." Man Two responds: "Nope, a little before five." The first man answers: "No, six trillion dollars is what Elaine Marshall wants in new government spending." The duo - joined by a granddaughter - tees off on Marshall over debt, unemployment and cap and trade, before one man finally concludes: "Richard Burr's got it right." Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/bipotJ
SENATE EXCLUSIVE II - CONWAY THE SURVIVOR: Republican Rand Paul has just a three-point lead in the Kentucky Senate race, taking 45 percent of the vote to Democratic state Attorney General Jack Conway's 42 percent in a poll commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The DSCC survey, conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group, shows Paul with almost evenly split favorability numbers: 44 percent of voters said they had a favorable impression of him, compared with 40 percent who said their impression was unfavorable. For Conway, those numbers were more positive: 43 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable.
MORE - The poll is one of several recent surveys to show a close race in Kentucky. Both the DSCC and the NRSC, as well as the conservative group American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have invested heavily in the campaign. Democratic pollster Pete Brodnitz argues in a memo that "Conway is withstanding a barrage of misleading, negative attacks by special interests from outside Kentucky. This shows that Conway is well-positioned to win the Senate seat." Read the full memo here. http://politi.co/ageZSM
SENATE EXCLUSIVE II - BUCK'S BACKUP: Colorado Senate candidate Ken Buck is up today with a new, positive ad, featuring a woman named Betty Grauberger praising his work as a district attorney and calling Buck a "good man." The ad pitches Buck to a group of voters - senior citizens - whom Democrats have aggressively targeted with commercials warning that Buck wants to privatize Social Security. "Seniors are very vulnerable people," Grauberger, who's identified as a "senior activist," says in Buck's spot. "As a result of what Ken did, our people know what's going on." She continues: "Politicians are usually there for your vote. They do their politicking you never hear from 'em again. Ken is not that kind of person. ... He'll work for you, is what he'll do." Watch it here. http://bit.ly/aWgemr
As Mike Castle teases, Andrew Cuomo attacks and Jerry Brown keeps it close, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.
FRIDAY STANDINGS - ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW? We are below the 40-day mark, with the countdown clock at T minus 39 days until Nov. 2. Here's Morning Score's weekly take on how the top candidates and campaign actors should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago?
YES: (1) West Virginia Republicans, whose jobs get collectively easier every week that John Raese holds up as a strong top-of-the-ticket candidate for Senate; (2) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose first-rate turn as a surrogate for Meg Whitman shows that the man-up-and-call-me-fat act travels pretty well; (3) The city of Chicago, which appears headed for a mayoral battle of the titans between Tom Dart and Rahm Emanuel, among others - and a level of national political attention not felt since that rally in Grant Park.
NO: (1) Former Georgia Rep. Nathan Deal, who has done virtually nothing to move his troubled personal finances out of the spotlight in the Georgia governor's race, more than a week after the first stories broke; (2) Massachusetts state Treasurer Tim Cahill, who lost a key campaign adviser Thursday when Republican consultant John Weaver quit, deepening questions about Cahill's viability as an independent gubernatorial candidate; (3) The health care reform law, which got precious little support from Democrats on the campaign trail this week, even as the White House and DNC marked the six-month anniversary of its passage.
GOV RACE EXCLUSIVE - PRO-DAYTON DOUGH: The Democratic Governors Association has given $500,000 to WIN Minnesota, an independent political group that has put money into attacks against Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer. WIN Minnesota has donated to the Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a group that's heavily invested in running ads against Emmer. The DGA's contribution brings its total investment into the race to $1 million, and former Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton's campaign remains one of his party's top-tier pickup opportunities this cycle.
POPPING TODAY - NRCC COUNTS DOWN: The National Republican Congressional Committee has set the countdown clock for its "39 Day Campaign" - an online hub that NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions calls "a one-stop shop" for Republicans to engage with the fight for the House. "As of September the 24th, there are 39 days until Election Day," Sessions says in an introductory video. "That gives us 39 days to raise awareness, support and resources for Republican candidates and the NRCC." The site promises to highlight one Republican candidate each day (starting with John Spratt challenger Mick Mulvaney) and 39 "facts you can't ignore," (starting with "America lost 2.9 million" jobs after the stimulus passed.) The site urges activists to help raise $39,000 a day, with the ambitious branding: "39 days. 39 seats. $39k/day. 39 facts you can't ignore."
SENATE SNEAK PEEK - SAVE THE DATE: Illinois Senate candidate Mark Kirk will get a late financial assist from two of his party's rising stars in the upper chamber, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn and Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker. The pair will hold a fundraiser for Kirk on Oct. 14, at a home in Chicago.
COMING ATTRACTIONS - DEMS GET CINEMATIC - Gordon Gekko is back in the theaters this weekend with the release of the "Wall Street" sequel," and some Democrats are treating that as a campaign event unto itself. Pennsylvania Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is out with a new ad hawking "Wall Street bailout, starring Mike Kelly" - her Republican challenger. "Kelly supports Wall Street and its bailout," Dahlkemper's ad warns. "Now he wants a flat tax to end deductions for mortgages, retirement - even charity." The AFL-CIO is flyering Ohio work sites with a hit against GOP gubernatorial candidate John Kasich and Senate candidate Rob Portman, showing them on a "Wall Street"-like movie poster with the title: "Wall Street: All about the money." And Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak is out with a movie trailer-style hit on Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey that opens with a shot of Toomey speaking at a rally, with Michael Douglas's voice saying: "Someone reminded me I once said, 'Greed is good.'" See the Dahklemper ad here http://bit.ly/93J7Io ; the AFL-CIO's Ohio hit here http://politi.co/b7nRpi ; and watch Sestak's video here http://bit.ly/bYHtyK
BOOKMARK IT - MSNBC.com has relaunched its politics section, featuring a new Voter Confidence Index - "a combination of three questions commonly asked in national polls - the president's job approval rating, the direction of the country, and the so-called generic congressional ballot ... In the VCI, a positive (+) measurement is generally a good sign for the president's party while a negative number (-) is not." See the site here http://bit.ly/ciAErv and more on the VCI http://bit.ly/cy7jg5
DELAWARE SIREN - "Castle will test waters with poll" - From POLITICO's David Catanese: "Rep. Mike Castle is planning on polling a potential three-way Senate race to test his chances as a write-in candidate, a Delaware Republican tells POLITICO. Castle, who lost his GOP primary by a 6-point margin to tea party upstart Christine O'Donnell nine days ago, opened the door to a potential write-in bid Wednesday evening when he told reporters off the House floor it was still a possibility he was considering. The GOP source did not have specifics on when Castle's team would conduct the poll, but viewed it as a practical step even if the nine-term congressman was unlikely to re-enter the race. A spokeswoman for Castle, who put the chances of h im running as a write-in 'under 5 percent,' said her boss likely wouldn't settle on a final decision before next week." http://politi.co/a4r4ga
2012 TALKER - WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU? Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown will make a trip next month to the early presidential primary state of New Hampshire, to campaign for Republican gubernatorial candidate John Stephen. The Union Leader reports that Brown, whose state shares a media market with much of New Hampshire, will headline a fundr
aiser for Stephen on Oct. 8 at the Atkinson Resort and Country Club. http://bit.ly/alBXXA
PLUS - IN HER SIGHTS: Sarah Palin rolled out a new website Thursday to focus her supporters' attention on 20 congressional districts the GOP presidential won in 2008 that are represented by pro-health care reform Democrats. Palin has previously talked up the need to target those seats and the site, www.takebackthe20.com, has a more detailed list of races to watch, each of them marked on a map with crosshairs. "Join me in standing against those who stood with Obama and Pelosi in voting for this disastrous bill," Palin writes on the landing page. "Don't get demoralized. Get organized. It's time to take a stand."
DON'T MISS - WHAT HAMBY SAW AT THE REVOLUTION - CNN's senior RNC Kremlinologist reports from the Michael Steele bus tour: "The road trip, which kicked off last week to much fanfare at RNC headquarters in Washington and concludes on Oct. 29 in Steele's home state of Maryland, features 143 stops in 117 cities across the continental United States. But crucially, according to a confidential itinerary of the tour provided to CNN by a Republican source, the bus will be spending almost half its time in congressional districts that are not in play this fall. ... One RNC member, speaking on the condition of anonymity, went so far as to dub the trip 'the Michael Steele re-election tour.' ... One Republican state party chair ... called the trip 'a colossal waste of time.' ... 'We cannot adequately fund our victory programs, and he's out there spending a hundred grand or more on a bus tour,' complained the chair." http://bit.ly/ciGiIf
VIETNAM SYNDROME IS BACK: California Rep. Loretta Sanchez, competing with Republican challenger Van Tran, warned in a television interview that "the Vietnamese and the Republicans are ... trying to take away this seat." Appearing on the Univision program "Al Punto," Sanchez warned that those groups want to "take away this seat from us and give it to this Van Tran, who's very anti-immigrant and vey anti-Hispanic." Tran is demanding an apology, calling the comments "offensive and wrong." http://bit.ly/aPm3Lk and http://bit.ly/9GzeDO
TEA PARTY ENEMY NO. 1: The conservative campaign group that brought you Sharron Angle, Joe Miller and Christine O'Donnell has named Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid its top takedown target for the general election. Tea Party Express head Amy Kremer told the Las Vegas Review-Journal: "This race is our No. 1 goal." And she took stock of her group's strong winning record this year: "It's been a blur. So we're really proud of the work we've done and of these candidates. We've done this one race at a time. It does keep getting bigger and bigger. But absolutely, any of these candidates can win these elections." http://bit.ly/b5zjNE
TODAY - From the White House guidance: "In the morning, the Vice President will travel to the Miami, Florida, area. At 12:00 PM, the Vice President will attend an event for Senatorial candidate Chris Coons. Afterwards, at 3:00 PM, the Vice President will deliver remarks at an event for the Florida Democratic Party with Florida's Democratic candidates."
SPEAKING OF FLORIDA - MASON-DIXON REPORTS: Florida CFO Alex Sink has a seven-point lead in the state's governor's race, edging Republican Rick Scott 47 percent to 40 percent. Mason-Dixon's latest poll shows that among likely voters, Scott has a net favorability rating of minus 17 percent (30 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable), while Sink's numbers are 21 points in the positive direction (44 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) - an amazing 38-point gap between the candidates. Still, this is a tighter race than Mason-Dixon showed in August, when a pre-primary matchup put Sink at 40 percent to Scott's 24 percent. http://bit.ly/aEggMo
ACROSS THE COUNTRY - FIELD CHECKS IN: The California governor's race remains locked in too-close-to-call territory, according to the authoritative Field Poll, while Sen. Barbara Boxer has opened up a six-point lead over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina. In the governor's race, Field has both Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown stuck at 41 percent. That race has been within the poll's margin of error since March, but the percentage of undecideds has actually increased since then, from 11 percent to 18 percent. In the Senate race, Boxer's lead has expanded slightly since July, when she was ahead of Fiorina, 47 percent to 44 percent. http://bit.ly/9j7yBu and http://bit.ly/aHD0IL
CUOMO GOES NEGATIVE: New York state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is up with a scorching ad against Republican challenger Carl Paladino, as a highly publicized Quinnipiac University poll fuels questions about Cuomo's position in the race. Cuomo's ad tears into Paladino for receiving questionable state tax breaks, calling him "a landlord and developer who has given politicians almost a half-million dollars and gets insider deals from Albany" and "a welfare king who got rich by milking New York taxpayers." It's not entirely clear what the state of play in this race is: Though both Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA pegged Cuomo's lead in the single digits, the New York-based Siena College poll put him up by 33 percentage points and a Marist survey due out today is expected to show another wide advantage. http://bit.ly/8ZhG79 and http://bit.ly/dp8Qby
HERE WE GO AGAIN: New York congressional candidate Doug Hoffman is pressing forward with his campaign on the Conservative Party's ballot line, despite losing the Republican primary to banker Matt Doheny. Hoffman, who's likely to undermine Doheny's campaign against Democratic Rep. Bill Owens, explained his decision in a statement: "I do not continue this race out of spite or because of self conceived virtues. I continue in this race because of the failings of my opponents to be truthful with the voters. ... I will give voters a choice between two fast talking lawyers and a small businessman who will speak the truth, work to create jobs and stand tall for conservative principles in Congress." http://bit.ly/cN4nJM
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We've got an illegal immigrant in the system right now, and it's a minor party candidate." - Colorado gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes, on American Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo. http://bit.ly/b6FPYz
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