By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)
MONDAY STAKES: New Year's is a little more than three weeks away. For the last unresolved races of 2010, closure is nigh. Here's Morning Score's list of the politicians and political groups that have the most to gain or lose in the week ahead:
(1) Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's facing the first real test of his power within the Democratic caucus since last month's election, as time runs short in the lame-duck session and Democrats have to decide which 11th-hour proposals will actually get the time and attention to make them law; (2) Minnesota state Rep. Tom Emmer, who's mulling whether to keep contesting the Minnesota governor's race in court after losing a recount to former Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton, and has both his own political reputation and the image of the resurgent state Republican Party to consider; (3) Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus, the former Michael Steele ally who resigned as the RNC's general counsel on Sunday, and has to show he's strong enough to go all the way in the race for chairman if he wants this et-tu-Brute moment to pay off; (4) Nevada Sen. John Ensign, who's in a better-than-accustomed political position after getting off the hook with the Justice Department, and needs to turn this moment into a full-scale rebound in order to make himself viable for reelection in 2012; (5) The professional left -- led by groups like MoveOn and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee -- which appears headed for disappointment in the tax debate after the White House ignored liberal pressure and signaled this weekend that a compromise extension of all the Bush tax cuts is on the table.
As Tim Pawlenty defines his legacy, the tea party eyes KBH and Terry McAuliffe lets bygones be bygones, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.
HUCKABEE: WHY NOT ME? Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is "tired of being left out of the conversation and sounds increasingly like a candidate" for president, POLITICO's Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith report, and he "may be more likely to run than is widely presumed." Martin and Smith: "If Huckabee gets in, he will unquestionably be a force to be reckoned with in the fight for the nomination. ... 'I just don't understand how it is that a person can read these polls day after day and the narrative is constantly everybody but me,' he told POLITICO. 'Whether I do it or not, the fact is that if one looks at the overall body of information that's available, nobody would be in a better position to take it all the way to November.' ... Huckabee's daughter, Sarah, went even further. 'I certainly wouldn't count him out,' she said. 'There is as good a chance that he runs at this point as he doesn't.'" http://politi.co/h5sFI0
NO, SERIOUSLY GUYS, CONT'D: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich moved the will-he-or-won't-he needle ever so slightly in the positive direction Sunday, announcing on Fox News Sunday that he's "much more inclined to run than not run." He elaborated: "Everything we've done over the last year, talking to friends, thinking things through, has made us more inclined to believe that it's doable." http://bit.ly/ejVBAs
PAWLENTY LEANS FORWARD: Outgoing Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, gearing up for a presidential run, is going out of his way to swat down suggestions he's been a primarily defensive governor. He told POLITICO's James Hohmann: "My accomplishments I like to highlight go well beyond being a 'goalie' ... I'll put my record against the record of any governor in the country, both offensively and defensively. We've stopped a lot of dumb stuff that the Democrats wanted to do, but we also got a lot done." Hohmann: "[T]he switch goes beyond simple symbolism to the central question hanging over Pawlenty - of whether a mild-mannered Midwestern governor can stand out from a crowded field of more colorful personalities who will take the stage, from Sarah Palin to Newt Gingrich to Mike Huckabee. And that's where Pawlenty turns to his record as governor - policy as personality." http://politi.co/dNJiXO
THE RNC RACE - PRIEBUS HINTS: The RNC's former top lawyer told CNN's Mark Preston on Sunday that he "will be making a public statement about my potential candidacy shortly" - not confirming that he'll run for chairman, but doing little to discourage the assumption. "'I informed the chairman in a private letter that I was resigning and why I was resigning,' Priebus said in an interview Sunday, confirming that he told RNC Chairman Michael Steele of his decision to leave the post. ... Steele has yet to announce his intentions. The RNC, an organization made up of 168 members, will meet next month outside of Washington, and vote for its next chairman." http://bit.ly/g6iQak
YOU WILL KNOW THEIR NAMES - The Des Moines Register unveiled a must-read-in-full list of the 50 Republicans who will make or break the Iowa caucuses - the ones who will be getting the first phone calls as candidates launch the "the hunt for top talent, support and advice from party leaders and opinion shapers across the state." For your convenience, here's the full clip-'n'-save rundown...
OPERATIVES: Albrecht, Tim Terry Branstad's communications director ... Beach, Becky Fundraiser, event planner ... Boeyink, Jeff Terry Branstad's campaign manager, incoming chief of staff ... Grubbs, Steve Former Iowa Republican Party chairman ... Haus, Bob Political advertising and communication consultant ... Kearney, Darrell Polk County Republican Party finance director ... Kennedy, Brian Veteran caucus campaign adviser ... Ketzner, Jake Organizational director for Terry Branstad's 2010 campaign ... Kochel, David Consultant, former Iowa Republican Party executive director ... Larson, Chuck Jr. Former Iowa Republican Party chairman ... Laudner, Chuck Former Iowa Republican Party executive director ... Popma, Marlys Organizer, fundraiser ... Rogers, Will Polk County Republican co-chairman ... Ryan, Nick American Future Fund founder, former congressional and campaign aide ... Schlinger, Nicole Founder and president of Capitol Resources political fundraising ... Slifka, Karen Former George W. Bush and John McCain campaign ... Woolson, Eric Mike Huckabee's 2008 caucus campaign manager ... SUPER-OPERATIVES: Gross, Doug 2002 nominee for governor ... Lamberti, Jeff Business executive, former state legislator and congressional candidate ... Rastetter, Bruce Energy entrepreneur and top fundraiser to the past two GOP nominees for governor ... Roederer, David Longtime Terry Branstad adviser ... Schwarm, Richard Close Terry Branstad adviser, former Iowa Republican Party chairman ... ACTIVISTS: Caviness, Trudy Wapello County Republican chairwoman ... Davidson, Judy Scott County Republican chairwoman ... Ecklund, Gwen Crawford County Republican co-chairwoman ... Findley, Brenna Former congressional aide, attorney general candidate ... Fong, Christian Former primary candidate for governor ... Halvorson, Ricky Warren County Republican chairman ... Lundberg, Mark Sioux County Republican chairman ... Rhodes, Ryan Chairman of the Iowa Tea Party ... Taylor, Rob Dallas County Republican chairman ... OFFICIALS: Dix, Bill Incoming state senator ... Greiner, Sandy Incoming state senator ... Helland, Erik Grimes state representative ... Lukan, Steve Dubuque state representative ... Paulsen, Kraig Incoming Iowa House speaker ... Pearson, Kim Incoming state representative ... Scheffler, Steve Member of Republican National Committee ... Sorenson, Kent State representative, incoming state senator ... Strawn, Matt Iowa Republican Party chairman ... Upmeyer, Linda Incoming Iowa House majority leader ... ISSUE ADVOCATES: Durham, Debi Economic development executive ... Failor, Ed Jr. President of Iowans for Tax Relief ... Hurley, Chuck President of the Iowa Family Policy Center ... Lehman, Kim Republican National Committee member, abortion-rights opponent ... Vander Plaats, Bob Three-time candidate for governor, now president and CEO of The Family Leader ... MEDIA VOICES: Deace, Steve Evangelical conservative, WHO radio host ... Mikelson, Jan Conservative radio host, WHO in Des Moines ... Robinson, Craig Editor, TheIowaRepublican.com ... Read more: http://bit.ly/f2f1tG
STILL NOT A CANDIDATE - PERRY'S AGENDA: Texas Gov. Rick Perry is about to escalate his running fight against the federal government, the Houston Chronicle reports, and his "drive to gain more control of clean air regulations, Medicaid health coverage for the poor, immigration and border security will sharpen the national attention on Perry just as he becomes the new chairman of the Republican Governors Association. ... Topping Perry's anti-Washington agenda is a January showdown with the Environmental Protection Agency that will showcase Texas' defiance of federal requirements for states to control greenhouse gas emissions by issuing EPA-approved permits for large industrial facilities to build or expand. ... Perry denies his federalism fight is a steppingstone to a national campaign in 2012 - a claim greeted with skepticism by some outsiders like [Larry] Sabato, the University of Virginia scholar: 'The more prominent he is on states' rights topics, the more he will become a tea party favorite, and thus in position to run for president if he decides to do it.'" http://bit.ly/hXlNj9
ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS - ON THE HIT LIST: Tea party groups in the Lone Star State are vowing to take on Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison if she runs for reelection in 2012. From the Star-Telegram: "'She personifies everything that the Tea Party is fighting,' said Konni Burton, a member of the Northeast Tarrant Tea Party steering committee. ... 'If [she] runs for Senate again, I feel she will be met with the same results that she received when she ran for governor,' said Angela Cox, who heads the Johnson County Tea Party." http://bit.ly/fJSpJF
WRAPPING 2010 - "Ex-candidate faces couple of lawsuits" - The Las Vegas Review-Journal's Norm Clarke: "Fallout continues from Sue Lowden's stunning primary loss in her U.S. Senate bid. At least two lawsuits have been filed over unpaid debts, and it's not exactly chicken feed. A campaign document obtained by Vegas Confidential indicated her recent debt stands at more than $750,000, nearly six months after the primary. ... More than a dozen consultants are owed for their campaign services, according to the document." http://bit.ly/fvKp7B
TWEET OF THE WEEKEND - FORGETTING '09: @Terry_McAuliffe: "Congratulations to the new @vademocrats Chair Brian Moran!"
2014 WATCH - SMITH FLOATS SMITH: Former Florida state Sen. Rod Smith, the unsuccessful Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor on Alex Sink's ticket this year, is taking over the state Democratic Party, in a move the St. Petersburg Times's Adam Smith suggests may be a step toward challenging Republican Gov.-elect Rick Scott four years down the line: "[T]he former prosecutor and state senator from Alachua may regret it once he finds himself refereeing petty disputes among dysfunctional local parties. But for someone lacking a significant geographic base, winning over die-hard party activists could be just the ticket for, say, mounting a gubernatorial campaign." http://bit.ly/eALlpj
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "When you've given your all without attaining success, is any temptation more seductive than to quit?" - California congressional candidate David Harmer, who belatedly conceded to Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney over the weekend.
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