By James Hohmann (jhohmann@politico.com; Twitter: @jameshohmann)
SNEAK PEEK - HISPANIC SUPPORT FOR OBAMA SOFTENS: President Obama is underperforming with Hispanics, according to a poll that will be released later today by Resurgent Republic.
• In Florida, Obama leads a generic Republican candidate 46 to 36 percent. 48% think the president deserves reelection. In 2008, Obama beat John McCain 57-42 among Sunshine State Hispanics.
• In New Mexico, Obama leads a generic Republican 58-28. 56% say he deserves reelection. He won Hispanics 69-30 there in 2008.
• The president's support is more durable in Colorado. He leads a generic Republican 59-27 (compared to his 61-38 performance against McCain).
Resurgent Republic, a 501(c)4 non-profit cofounded by GOP operative Ed Gillespie, conducted 1,200 interviews with Hispanic voters in Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico from Sept. 6-10 in conjunction with the Hispanic Leadership Network. Other interesting findings from the results:
• The sample split 37-37 over whether Obama's policies have made things better or worse for most Hispanic Americans.
• Majorities of Hispanics say Obama has been a weaker leader than they expected: 57-34 in FL; 54-40 in CO; 54-39 in NM.
• Hispanics still trust Democrats more by big margins on every big issue, from the economy to health care, immigration and national security. Democrats maintain a 51-14 party ID advantage in Colorado and 57-18 in New Mexico.
Full results will post on the Resurgent Republic website later this morning: http://bit.ly/npJsU3.
REALITY CHECK- OBAMA REASSURES NERVOUS DEMS: "The odds of me being reelected are much higher than the odds of me being elected in the first place," the president said at a D.C. fundraiser last night.
CABLE CATNIP - SCOTUS STAYS EXECUTION OF KILLER PERRY WAS READY TO LET DIE: "The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday issued a stay of execution for Houston killer Duane Buck in a case that drew arguments that his punishment might have been tainted by racial testimony," the Houston Chronicle reports from the execution site in Huntsville, Texas. "The high court stayed his execution pending a decision on whether to review his case. The decision came about 7:30 p.m. approximately 90 minutes after Buck was to have been executed. He was waiting in a holding cell next to the state's death chamber."
http://bit.ly/n61cbT
This delay will likely restart a conversation (on cable and elsewhere) about the 234 executions Rick Perry has authorized as governor, especially the 2004 death of Cameron Todd Willingham (who many believe was innocent). Remember that Perry's record does not necessarily hurt him with the Republican base.
As Perry pounces on a Romneycare study, Afghanistan politics flares up and Kucinich prepares for a primary with Kaptur, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.
"PONZI SCHEME" - HOW PERRY'S SOCIAL SECURITY POSITION ACTUALLY TURNS OFF GOP VOTERS: "Perry's statements on Social Security are more likely to harm his campaign indirectly by weakening his perceived viability than they are to turn off Republicans who disagree with his views," Gallup's Lydia Saad writes in an analysis posted this morning of results from a USA Today/Gallup poll. "In contrast to the 19% of Republicans who say they would personally be less likely to support Perry over his Social Security views, 37% believe those views would hurt his chances of being elected president if he were the GOP nominee."
http://bit.ly/oW3Xqc
TOP TALKER - NYT ON BACHMANN'S PATTERN OF "EXAGGERATION
" - The fallout continues from Bachmann's unsubstantiated story about the HPV vaccine causing mental retardation. "People close to the campaign, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Mrs. Bachmann is often influenced by the last person she speaks with on an issue rather than maintaining discipline in communicating a message," Trip Gabriel writes in today's New York Times. He draws a distinction between the Minnesota congresswoman's run-of-the-mill gaffes (mixing up Elvis' birthday with the day he died, calling Russia the Soviet Union), staff-caused mistakes (saying the shot heard round the world happened in N.H.) and "more serious political assertions that she is prone to utter
with conviction, only to have them turn out to be baseless."
--The ONLY example given of the latter (besides HPV) is Bachmann parroting the inaccurate report last year that Obama's India trip would cost taxpayers "$200 million a day" and include more than 870 "five-star hotel rooms." The story runs on A16 under the headline: "With Stakes for Bachmann Higher Now, Her Words Get in the Way." http://nyti.ms/q6kWJ6
NO APOLOGIES - BACHMANN WON'T ANSWER FOR HPV CLAIM: 'During the debate, I didn't make any statements that would indicate that I'm a doctor, I'm a scientist or that I'm making any conclusions about the drug one way or another,' Bachmann told reporters in San Rafael, Calif., who questioned her yesterday about the story she told suggesting that the vaccine had caused mental retardation. Per CBS: "Asked whether she would apologize for comments that outraged medical experts say will discourage parents from getting their children immunized, Bachmann said: 'Oh, I'm not going to answer that.'"
http://bit.ly/pCALFx
HPV- BACHMANN BLOWBACK DOES NOT FIX PERRY'S PROBLEM: The backlash to Bachmann's gaffe does not mean that Perry's executive order on Gardasil is significantly less of a liability for him.
• ABC told the story yesterday of the dying woman who influenced Perry's decision to sign the executive order mandating the vaccine: http://abcn.ws/qZ5M3p.
• But this did not assuage angry conservatives. Blogger Michelle Malkin responded to the ABC report with a frustrated post: "While the personal back story now being disseminated by Team Perry supporters may help explain why he did what he did, it does not in any way excuse it." http://bit.ly/n4A0Mz
• "Perry's record on the HPV vaccine is 'not going to play well,' said Bob Vander Plaats, an Iowa conservative leader, told the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/qV1luf
• Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council to NBC: "He's going to have to be a little clearer. He's going to have to say, 'That was a violation of the sacred relationship between parent and child.'' http://on.msnbc.com/qVHhb7
• The Union Leader editorial board says he still has questions to answer: "An opt-in is hardly a mandate, so does he now think girls should not be required to get the vaccine?" http://bit.ly/oXRjke
THAT MERCK LOBBYIST WHO PUSHED THE HPV MANDATE? - HE'S NOW RUNNING A SUPER PAC FOR PERRY
: Friday's Austin American-Statesman profiles former top Perry aide Mike Toomey, the Merck lobbyist during the Gardasil mandate flap who became an (unnamed) character in Monday's debate. He's now promoting Perry's candidacy from Austin with the Make Us Great Again super PAC. "That raises the question of how Toomey can put aside his friendship with Perry, as well as his ownership of a resort island on a New Hampshire lake with Perry campaign strategist Dave Carney, as his so-called super PAC tries to raise millions of dollars to elect his friend," the Statesman writes. "After all, Toomey has a track record in Texas with similar quasi-campaign operations that have landed him either
in court or in the middle of controversy." Neither Toomey nor the Perry campaign responded to questions from the paper. http://bit.ly/qKgCDs
ROMNEY'S HEALTH CARE PROBLEM - STUDY CLAIMS ROMNEYCARE COST 18,000+ JOBS: Suffolk University's Beacon Hill Institute, a conservative think tank, released a study yesterday blaming the health care law passed by Mitt Romney in 2006 for the loss of more than 18,000 jobs. The study found that, "on average, Romneycare cost the Bay State 18,313 jobs; drove up total health insurance costs in Massachusetts by $4.311 billion; slowed the growth of disposable income per person by $376; and reduced investment in Massachusetts by $25.06 million." The Boston Herald story: http://bit.ly/nZMvEy. The study:
http://bit.ly/o2pvfa.
Romney spokesperson Andrea Saul tells Score that the study is deeply flawed: "It is based on the assumption that Massachusetts healthcare reform caused the rate of healthcare cost increases to accelerate. In fact, healthcare cost increases have slowed since the passage of reform. This error therefore invalidates the study."
PERRY POUNCES - PUTS STUDY INTO STUMP SPEECH: Perry, kicking off a swing across Iowa, touted the Beacon Hill study by name last night. "I think it's very important that we put someone as our nominee that does not blur the lines between President Obama and the Republican Party," he said in Jefferson, Iowa. "If it cost Massachusetts 18,000 jobs, think about what ObamaCare is going to do to this country." http://bit.ly/obk9cY
ENDORSEMENT WATCH - TOM RIDGE TO BACK HUNTSMAN: The Union Leader scoops that Jon Huntsman will announce the endorsement of former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Gov. Tom Ridge at an event today at St. Anselm College. The former Pennsylvania governor will attend a press conference with Huntsman at the college's New Hampshire Institute for Politics. http://bit.ly/pILZda
AFGHANISTAN HEDGING - OPPONENTS SEIZE ON PERRY EFFORTS TO CLAIM A MIDDLE GROUND
: To hawks listening closely, Perry sounded like he semi-endorsed Jon Huntsman's call for a quick withdrawal from Afghanistan during Monday night's debate. A senior Perry foreign policy advisor sought to limit the potential damage in a Thursday interview with Foreign Policy Magazine. But his quotes make it clear that the Texas governor is still trying to figure out how best to message on his support for the war effort, popular with many in the base but deeply unpopular with independents. "He would lean toward wanting to bring our troops home, but he understands that we have vital strategic interests in Afghanistan and that a precipitous withdrawal is not what he's recommending,"
the advisor said. 'He has a clear sense of the mission and wanting to win it, but not just by throwing the kitchen sink at it." The unnamed source refused to say how many troops Perry thinks should be withdrawn and at what pace. http://bit.ly/q3aaeQ
Romney pounced with a statement on "RICK'S REVERSAL ON AFGHANISTAN": "In Comments Published Today, The Perry Campaign Said Governor Perry Does Not Recommend Withdrawing Our Armed Forces From Afghanistan...However, Governor Perry - On Two Separate Occasions Within The Last Week - Said He Wanted To Withdraw Our Forces From Afghanistan." They linked to his debate comment and the interview he gave Time Magazine, in which he said: "I think we need to try to move our men and women home as soon as we can, not just in Afghanistan, but in Iraq as well."
PERRY'S SECRECY - ADMITS HIDING $800,000+ IN GOVERNOR'S MANSION SPENDING: In a confidential settlement reached last week with the Texas Ethics Commission, Perry's campaign admitted that it violated disclosure laws by hiding the details of more than $800,000 spent on amenities at the Governor's Mansion, including flowers, food and drink - even cable bills that included hundreds of dollars worth of charges for movies and events. Ken Vogel and Ben Smith looked at Perry's record as one of the most secretive governors in the country, including his office's unusual email deletion policy: http://politi.co/ovtfgF
. The complaint against Perry: http://politi.co/op3nJT. The confidential settlement: http://politi.co/nVIwhf.
MORE POLLING -
• BLOOMBERG NEWS (popped overnight): 64% of Americans hold a favorable view of Hillary Clinton. 34% say the U.S. would be better off now if she beat Obama in 2008, including 44% of tea partiers. http://bloom.bg/r2SKKx
• CNN/ORC (released yesterday): 49% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they support the tea party movement or are active members. 51% say that they have no feelings either way or that they oppose the movement. http://bit.ly/oazdF2
• CALIFORNIA FIELD (presidential numbers posted yesterday): Romney leads Perry 28-20 among Golden State Republicans. Obama leads both by double digits in a general election matchup: 51-38 against Romney, 54-35 against Perry. http://bit.ly/phX42t
THE OTHER ARIZONA SHERIFF - ROMNEY COURTS BABEU: The headlines yesterday were about Bachmann meeting with Sheriff Joe, but less noticed by the national press was that Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu spent the day with Romney at both his Tucson and Sun Lakes events. The two met briefly in private after the latter. Babeu, currently the National Sheriff of the Year, is talking to the other candidates, but he's much further down the road with Romney. The sheriff is particularly impressed by Romney's promises to end the SB 1070 lawsuit against Arizona and seriously deal with the border security problem.
WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO
: Perry continues his Iowa swing, hosting an 8 a.m. Jasper County meet and greet at Uncle Nancy's Coffee shop. Then he speaks at the Iowa Credit Union Convention at the Polk County Convention Complex in Des Moines at noon, tours the Atlantic Bottling Company at 2 p.m. and hosts a meet-and-greet at Tish's Restaurant in Council Bluffs at 5:30 p.m. Romney is in California to host an 8:30 a.m. breakfast reception at the home of Jenny Craig in Del Mar. Also in California, Bachmann hosts a 'Join Team Bachmann!' Orange County Rally in Costa Mesa at 9 a.m. and then speaks to the California GOP convention at 7:30 p.m. Cain has a 9:30 a.m. rally at the Aiken County Historical Museum in South
Carolina, a 1 p.m. meet-and-greet in Simpsonville and a 4:30 p.m. rally at Winthrop University in Rock Hill. Ron Paul will speak to the Liberty Political Action Conference at the Grand Sierra Resort and Casino in Reno at 7 p.m. [As always, all times are local.]
WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO: At 10:45 a.m., the president will travel to Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology in Alexandria, Virginia. Hell visit a classroom, give a speech and sign the America Invents Act into law.
COMING LATER TODAY - NH DEMS PUSH GOP CANDIDATES ON OBAMA JOBS BILL: "While the major GOP contenders were out of state debating before Tea Party audiences and attending campaign fundraisers, the New Hampshire Democratic Party compiled messages for the candidates from the state's editorial pages," says a message going out later this morning. Included on a graphic designed to look like a while-you-were-out message slip are excerpts from editorials in the Concord Monitor, Valley News, Keene Sentinel and Laconia Citizen stressing the need for action. http://bit.ly/nmKVl0
HATE THE SIN; LOVE THE SINNER - CANDIDATES BASH STIMULUS, THEN CAMPAIGN PLACES THAT BENEFITTED FROM IT: The Associated Press moved a story over the wire last night on Republican contenders campaigning at businesses that benefited from the 2009 stimulus "with an awkward frequency... Romney himself made at least two campaign appearances this summer with stimulus beneficiaries. There are a half dozen such examples involving several candidates, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, among them." Perry has "not used stimulus beneficiaries as campaign props," the story says, but Texas has taken Recovery Act money.
http://bit.ly/oshs79
OHIO HOUSE - KUCINICH VS KAPTUR PRIMARY BATTLE LIKELY
: Dennis Kucinich won't move out of Ohio, and it looks like he is almost certain to face off against fellow Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a new district they've both been drawn into by Republicans in Columbus. The two met after the release of the new map, and neither has drawn a sword yet. POLITICO's Dan Hirschhorn previews what everyone expects will be a hard-fought primary: "Kaptur starts with a [4-1] financial advantage...but party insiders are split over who to peg as the early front-runner. Some give Kucinich that nod, in part, because...his base in the Cleveland media market covers more of the district. Others...say Kucinich's presence on the national stage as a sometime
presidential candidate, his excursions into issues far outside the district...and his very public search for a new district have all damaged him back home." http://politi.co/pDDDMn
CALENDAR UPDATE- MICHIGAN MOVIN
G TOWARD FEB. 28 PRIMARY: "The Republican-led Senate approved a bill to follow through on the plan by a 25-12, mostly party line vote Thursday. The measure next goes to the Republican-led House," according to the AP. http://bit.ly/q8PbLQ
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'Look, Utah will never get another chairman on the Senate finance committee.' - Orrin Hatch, making the case for why Republicans should nominate him for another term http://bit.ly/n46kj5
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