By James Hohmann (jhohmann@politico.com; Twitter: @jameshohmann)
EXCLUSIVE - JEFF FLAKE ENDORSES ROMNEY
: Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake will announce his support later this morning for Mitt Romney. Flake, who has a record as a leading fiscal conservative in the House, is now running for the Senate and expected to win both the nomination and general election. Arizona has become way more important since officially moving its primary up to February 28, so this is a great get. From Flake's statement: "Mitt Romney has the experience and vision to get our country on the right path again. Whether it was his time as governor or as a successful businessman, Mitt Romney has shown that he has the economic knowledge to create the environment for businesses to start hiring again."
As the Texas "Miracle" takes a hit, Cain won't say who secretly advises him on the economy and Daniels says there's still room for another Republican to run for president, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.
THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: President Obama will be the central foil of this week, with his tax plan driving today's conversation and Ron Suskind's controversial book distracting the White House. Thursday brings another Republican debate, and the end of week brings straw polls in Florida and Michigan. With this in mind, we have these five questions for the week ahead:
(1) How many network morning shows will feature the Ron Suskind book today (and tomorrow)?
(2) How will the disheartened Democratic base react to the president's proposed millionaire's tax?
(3) What is Rick Perry doing right now to make sure his next debate - in Florida this week - is his best?
(4) What percentage of Michele Bachmann's public appearances will involve references to HPV?
(5) Which straw poll will matter more this weekend: Florida's Presidency 5 or Michigan's Mackinac Conference? (Bonus: Which one SHOULD matter more?)
"CLASS WARFARE" vs. "THE BUFFETT RULE"- OBAMA TO PROPOSE $1.5 TRILLION IN NEW TAXES TODAY: Republicans tell Score that President Obama's call for $1.5 trillion in new taxes is an opportunity to drive a wedge between the president and vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The National Republican Senatorial Committee will send out releases later this morning calling on all 2012 Senate Democrats, particularly those in red states, to take a position on the president's proposal. Obama's package to save $3-plus trillion over a decade will be dead on arrival in the current House, but that's not the point. The White House gambles this will shore up the liberal base in the short-term and that ultimately
they can win a general election battle over whether to raise taxes on millionaires.
John Harwood's analysis in the New York Times: "Polls show that most Americans side with Mr. Obama on higher taxes for the wealthy. But voters are dispirited about economic conditions and with Mr. Obama's leadership in general, and he has been ineffective in pressuring Congress to go along. Administration aides insist that two factors provide a new opening: rising anxiety about jobs and deficits, and lawmakers' own rock-bottom ratings. Mr. Obama has begun trying to replicate his 2008 success by abandoning closed-door negotiations for feisty, campaign-style language. But so far his aspirations for big shifts in tax policy share something in common with the income gap that underlies them:
evidence of a breakthrough remains elusive." http://nyti.ms/nB2SyZ
Here are six curtain-raisers detailing what the president will propose: http://wapo.st/oaI6kE ; http://politi.co/pnuXHc; http://lat.ms/ptwpcE ; http://abcn.ws/oiB6mb ; http://on.wsj.com/pI4OWs ; http://usat.ly/obnmK9 .
2012 TALKER - PERRY MUST CONVINCE GOP ELITES HE CAN CARRY THE SUBURBS IN A GENERAL: "Within Republican circles in the states that will decide the next president, the debate increasingly centers on who can win in a race that, for now, seems focused on two people. And in the minds of many, while Perry leads in most polls, he has to convince his party that he can be the better general election candidate," Jonathan Martin and Dan Hirschhorn write in a story leading POLITICO's home page this morning. Elected officials and professionals in Colorado, Virginia, Florida and Pennsylvania talk about how Perry could play in their states.
http://bit.ly/omNlTN
TEXAS "MIRACLE" - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND POVERTY GROWING: Texas' unemployment rate increased to 8.5 percent last month. The Austin American-Statesman notes that this is its highest rate since June 1987: "Texas gained 8,100 private-sector jobs, but those jobs were wiped out by job losses in the public sector...In August alone, the state lost 11,500 jobs in local government, for a net loss of 9,400 government jobs. The Texas unemployment rate ranks 27th, tied with Colorado." http://bit.ly/nOPojP
Meanwhile, the Lone Star State's poverty rate grew faster than the national average in 2010. Per CNNMoney: "Texas ranks 6th in terms of people living in poverty. Some 18.4% of Texans were impoverished in 2010, up from 17.3% a year earlier, according to Census bureau data [released last week]." For context, the national average is 15.1%. http://cnnmon.ie/pcdNnU
WHERE HE COMES FROM - PERRY'S PAINT CREEK: Today's NYT has a feature about Perry's hometown of Paint Creek, Texas-"the tight-knit and traditionally Democratic community that first crowned him king no longer wholeheartedly embraces him even as Paint Creek anchors his origin story." [ http://nyti.ms/rd6eEM ] The Post has a story about just how different Perry's background is from Romney's. [ http://wapo.st/olTXyc]
THE BUZZ JUST WON'T DIE - GIGOT SAYS CHRISTIE IS "VERY CAREFULLY" CONSIDERING A RUN: Wall Street Journal editorial editor Paul Gigot said on "Fox News Sunday" yesterday that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may still be interested in running for president. 'I do think that he's considering it,' said Gigot, despite his repeated public insistence that he is not. "For all of that, I think that enough people have gone to him now and said, 'This field is weak and none of them may be able to beat the president. We think you can do it. Now is your moment!'" Two-minute video clip: http://bit.ly/q8xip1.
MITCH DANIELS - STILL ROOM FOR SOMEONE ELSE: Selling his new book, the Indiana governor who passed on a run said that the Romney vs. Perry debate on Social Security has not been helpful. "Somebody else could still enter and have a competitive chance," Daniels told The New York Times this weekend. Jeff Zeleny: "Mr. Daniels said the rise of Mr. Perry's candidacy suggested that it remained possible for another Republican candidate - he declined to say who - to still consider running for the party's nomination. 'He proved it wasn't too late - I don't think it's too late yet,' Mr. Daniels said, noting that he had 'tried to recruit three or four people.'"
http://nyti.ms/nfLZxt
FLORIDA - PERRY IS FRONTRUNNER FOR P5
: The latest St. Petersburg Times Florida Insider Poll, out yesterday, finds the Sunshine State's top political professionals split on whether Perry or Romney will win the state's primary next year. Two-thirds of the 100-plus participants see Romney as a better general election candidate. Looking ahead to the straw poll this weekend, expected to draw more than 3,500 activists: 56% of the insiders call it a credible indicator of a candidate's strength with Florida Republicans, and 80-plus percent predict Perry will win. More than 70 percent of Adam Smith's group say it is unwise for Bachmann and Romney to not speak to the delegates the day of the vote (part of their strategy to
downplay the significance). http://bit.ly/oEfsu5
RAISING EYEBROWS - CAIN REFUSES TO SAY WHO GIVES HIM ECONOMIC ADVICE
: Sunday brought another profoundly odd "Fox News Sunday" moment with Herman Cain. He announced that "some of the bes
t economists in this country" helped him create his 9-9-9 plan but refused to say who. "The chairman of my economic advisers is a gentleman by the name of Rich Lowery of Cleveland, Ohio. He worked with a couple of other people quite frankly that are well known that I'm not at liberty to mention their names," Cain said. "Why not?" host Chris Wallace asked. "Because they have their own independent businesses and I don't want to compromise their confidentiality at this point. When they tell me it is OK to mention their names publicly, I will mention it. But I - trust
me, it was a couple of people that you know very well." http://on.wsj.com/oXvE3f
LINDSEY GRAHAM - 2012 ELECTION IS GOP'S TO LOSE: 'President Obama has done everything he knows how to do to beat himself,' the South Carolina Republican said on CNN's 'State of the Union.' 'The reason people have little conference in President Obama's policies is they're just not working. Everything is worse.' http://politi.co/qESsMW
CALIFORNIA STRAW POLL - PAUL WINS: Texas Rep. Ron Paul won the straw poll at the California Republican state convention. Of 833 ballots cast, Paul won with 45 percent. Perry finished second with 29 percent, and Romney got 9 percent as a distant third. http://bit.ly/oMSTkK
PENNSYLVANIA STRAW POLL - SANTORUM WINS: He won a straw poll of his home state GOP's central committee with 36 percent on Friday night. http://politi.co/qI2ikr
WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: Bachmann tours Sukup Manufacturing factory in Sheffield, Iowa, at noon and OMJC Signals factory in Waterloo at 3 p.m. She'll host "employee roundtables" at both sites. Perry hosts a fundraiser at the San Carlos hotel in New York City. Cain speaks at a rally hosted by Tea Party Manatee at Mixon Fruit Farms in Bradenton, Fla., a meet-and-greet event hosted by the Belleaire Republican Women's Club and a 7 p.m. rally with Sarasota Republican Party. Santorum speaks at the Bedford Republican Breakfast at the Manchester, N.H., Country Club.
WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO: He announces the tax plan in the Rose Garden at 10:30 a.m. Then he flies to New York for a United Nations meeting and a 7:30 p.m. fundraiser.
COURTING TRUMP - MITT TO MEET DONALD-Trump tells Jonathan Capehart that Romney is visiting Trump Tower on Sept. 26. http://wapo.st/p5CYgm
HPV LATEST -
• BACHMANN KEEPS ATTACKING: Michele Bachmann linked Perry's vaccine mandate to Obama's federal support for the now-bankrupt and scandal-ridden Solyndra. Both, she suggested, were done as favors for cronies who had given money. 'It's wrong to abuse executive authority with unilateral action, and of course the governor of Texas admitted as much that he made a mistake,' Bachmann said Friday, per the Los Angeles Times. 'People don't want a president or a governor making decisions based on political connections. It's wrong.' http://lat.ms/qwY2Wp
• NIKKI HALEY SUPPORTED MANDATORY VACCINATION
: As a state representative, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley supported a bill that would have required HPV vaccinations. Per CNN: "Unlike the executive order for which Perry is taking heat, this legislative mandate did not include a provision for parents to opt out of inoculating their daughters. Within months, fierce opposition mounted, and legislative records back up accounts from sources who recall sponsors 'dropping like flies' before a unanimous vote killed the bill on April 18, 2007. More than a dozen legislators formally requested to be removed as sponsors from the bill, but the future governor of South Carolina was not one of them."
http://bit.ly/nMBY5H
• CORRECTION: Friday's Morning Score linked to an ABC item about a woman who died of cervical cancer. I wrongly said that the woman was an inspiration for Perry to sign the executive order mandating the HPV vaccine. In fact, the governor did not meet her until after a massive conservative backlash in Austin.
SNEAK PEEK - N.H. DEMS BLAST OVIDE AS HE ENTERS GOVERNOR'S RACE: Democrats will attack frontrunner Ovide Lamontagne today as he announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination to run for New Hampshire governor. A press release going out later from the state Democrats paints him as a perennial candidate (this is his fourth run for political office) totally in cahoots with the tea party. The initial Dem assault on Lamontagne will follow three lines: He opposes abortion, even in the case of rape and incest. In 1993, he called schools "glorified social service agencies." And he recently pushed right-to-work laws.
Separately, Union Leader State House bureau chief Tom Fahey looks at other Republicans and Democrats who may jump into the wide-open governor's race in the wake of John Lynch's announcement last week that he will not seek a fifth term: http://bit.ly/qjOtVW.
EMILY'S LIST - ENDORSING SUZANNE BONAMICI: EMILY's List will announce today that they are throwing their full support behind the Democratic state senator running to fill David Wu's open seat. "She knows what matters to her constituents and has fought tirelessly for reforms in education, environmental practices and health care," Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY's List, says in a forthcoming statement.
HOUSE - NRCC GOES UP AGAINST KISSELL: The National Republican Congressional Committee is going on the air today with a very small buy in North Carolina against Rep. Larry Kissell. Video: http://bit.ly/qoTm41
WISCONSIN GOVERNOR - WALKER SPEAKS ON FBI INVESTIGATION: "Governor Scott Walker says he's in the dark about the raid on the home of a top official in his administration," WKOW reports. "Walker says his office has not been told anything about the search. FBI agents combed through Cynthia Archer's home in Madison on Wednesday morning. Archer says she doesn't know why they searched her home and maintains she's done nothing wrong. Archer works for the Department of Children and Families and previously was an aide to Walker when he was Milwaukee County Executive." http://bit.ly/r8IDiE
IOWA STATE SENATE - SPECIAL ELECTION COULD DEPRIVE DEMS OF MAJORITY
: "Iowa Republicans will have a shot on Nov. 8 to knock Democrats from their one-seat senate majority due to Gov. Terry Branstad's appointment of a Democratic senator to the Iowa Utilities Board," the Des Moines Register reports. "If Republicans win, the 50-seat Senate in 2012 will be evenly split. That would give the GOP a far better chance to push ahead on a handful of issues that have been blocked in the Senate such as a proposal to amend the state constitution and eliminate marriage rights for same-sex couples, members of both parties agreed." There are more registered Republicans than Democrats in the district holding the special.
http://bit.ly/oXkRHh
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well, we'd probably have an argument over that gay thing." - Jay Leno's retort when Bachmann joked during a somewhat contentious Friday interview on his show that she might ask him to be vice president. http://nydn.us/p1kI4G
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