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> I think this is a serious question that may accelerate the crisis.
> Jim DeMint if he wishes can place a hold on the CR and this could
> block consideration unless 60 Senators voted to proceed.
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> Can The GOP Really Wait Until Next Year To Shut Down The Government?
> 04 nov 2010
> posted by stan collender
> 
> Those who think the Republicans in the House and Senate have several
> months to get organized are seriously misreading the political tea
> leaves.
>
> Even though the smaller Senate GOP minority and House Republican
> majority won't officially be in place until January, the leadership
> will be facing a very difficult decision over federal spending in
> less than a month when the the current continuing resolution --
> which is funding all federal agencies and departments that operate
> with annual appropriations -- expires.
>
> That's the first point at which the GOP will have to face up to one
> of its most prominent campaign pledges: To significantly cut federal
> spending. The vote to extend the CR will be the first opportunity
> to face that challenge head on because it can be filibustered in the
> Senate. The Republicans there -- (Actually, all you need is one:
> Can you say Jim DeMint?) are in a position to prevent the current CR
> from being extended if the new version doesn't reduce spending to
> the level they want.
>
> It's certainly possible that the Senate GOP leadership will decide
> to punt in December. They could say that they want to wait until
> their colleagues in the House are in the majority so that they can
> work together to cut spending, or some other similar spin-like
> message. Instead of forcing the issue in December 2010, they would
> agree to extend the existing CR until early next year (or insist on
> some type of symbolic change) and then come back in January armed
> for budget bear.
>
> But there are four reasons why waiting isn't the best strategy.
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> First, from a strictly technical budget (and likely least important)
> perspective, waiting until next January or February will make it
> much more difficult to come up with the actual budget cuts that will
> be needed to achieve the lower spending levels the GOP says it
> wants. At that point there will only be eight or seven months left
> in fiscal 2011 and that will mean that the spending reductions will
> only be achievable by substantial reductions in personnel. Even
> under the best of circumstances, it will take most agencies and
> departments a month or so to identify the employees who will be let
> go and to then implement the changes. That means that the
> reductions will have to be much larger and the political difficulty
> in doing so much, much greater than will be the case if the process
> begins in December .
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> Second, the tea partiers insisted it would not be politics as usual
> in Washington if they were elected and this will be their first
> opportunity to show they meant it. Even though the just-elected
> senators will not yet be in office, they will be able to put
> pressure on the leadership to meet their demands in December. This
> especially will be the case because any member of the leadership
> (the chairman of the appropriations committee, for example) who
> tries to thwart the effort could be threatened with a challenge when
> the new Congress convenes in January if the threat comes down in
> December.
>
> Third, shutting down the government in December might be the best
> way to seal the deal with the party base that was all but guaranteed
> this type of confrontation during the campaign and will still be
> walking around with its chest puffed out in December. By contrast,
> not taking advantage of the opportunity might well begin to alienate
> some who would see it as a betrayal.
>
> Finally, December might well be the best time to push a Democratic
> Party that is disillusioned and depressed from the election and a
> White House that is reeling from the election results. It is not at
> all clear that congressional Democrats or the Obama administration
> will have a plan in place during the lame duck session to deal with
> the extreme political and communications challenge a shutdown will
> create. By contrast, a threatened shutdown in February would
> definitely provide the time to come up with a plan to deal with it.
>