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The Evening CSIS: Civilian Deaths in Syria, Orlando Aftermath, Musical Charms & More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please send me an email at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)


** Constitutional Changes
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In the wake of last week’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, government officials are expected to propose changes in the country’s constitution that will give President Recep Tayyip Erdogan more control over the Turkish armed forces, according to Turkish officials, as the
Washington Post’s Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Souad Mekhennet report (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/turkish-government-to-propose-bringing-military-under-tighter-civilian-control/2016/07/19/c6289c90-4de0-11e6-a422-83ab49ed5e6a_story.html) from Ankara.

And, as the Post’s David Ignatius writes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/07/18/the-coup-attempt-dealt-a-new-blow-to-the-strained-u-s-turkish-relationship/) , relations between Washington and Ankara, already badly strained, appear to be headed for new difficulty.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s John Schaus and Scott Aughenbaugh had been conducting a survey of Turks’ views of the country’s future over the past week leading up to Friday night’s coup attempt. The survey is part of a broader CSIS study examining the long-term prospects of important regional states to serve as strong partners to the United States today and into the future. Nearly 59 percent of respondents to CSIS’s survey believed that the greatest security threat to Turkey in 2025 would be social/political fracturing. This was more than double the response received by the next most common response—terrorist attacks. More survey results are available here (https://www.csis.org/analysis/future-turkey-preliminary-survey-results) .

Plus, CFR’s interview on “Turkey’s Prospects After the Coup Attempt (http://www.cfr.org/turkey/turkeys-prospects-after-coup-attempt/p38144) ” with Brookings’ Kemal I Kirişc.


** Civilian Deaths in Syria
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At least 56 civilians were reported killed on Tuesday in airstrikes north of the besieged Islamic State-held city of Manbij in northern Syria. Residents said they believed the attack was carried out by aircraft from the US-led coalition, a monitoring group said, but the reports could not be independently verified because the area is inaccessible to independent media, as the Associated Press reports (http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-syria-airstrikes-20160719-snap-story.html) .

Dive Deeper: In early June, CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman wrote a useful commentary, “Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf: The Cost of an ISIS-Centric US Strategy (https://www.csis.org/analysis/iraq-syria-and-gulf-cost-isis-centric-us-strategy) .”


** South China Sea Concerns
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Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations, said he met with Adm. Wu Shengli, commander of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy, days after an international court ruled that many of China’s historical claims and island building offered no legal basis to controlling nearly all of the disputed waters of the South China Sea, as David Larter of the
Navy Times reports (http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2016/07/19/john-richardson-wu-shengli-south-china-sea-navy/87296756/) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) has launched an interactive map (https://amti.csis.org/arbitration-map/) of the China-Philippines Arbitration, as well as an analysis of the case (https://amti.csis.org/arbitration-ruling-analysis/) by CSIS’s Mike Green, Amy Searight, Bonnie Glaser, Greg Polling, and Murray Hiebert.

Plus, CSIS’s Bonnie Glaser recently posted a new China Power Podcast, “When a Rock is Just a Rock: Breaking Down the UN Ruling (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/dutton) .” Bonnie’s conversation is with Peter Dutton, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College. It’s easy listening on Soundcloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/dutton) .

And, another smart read (https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/will-there-now-be-peace-south-china-sea#sthash.3NzMix8a.dpuf) comes from Chatham House’s Bill Hayton who writes that China’s sense of entitlement has collided with international law and, for the time being, lost, and that the way is open for a new regional understanding.


**
Taking Stock of Orlando
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CSIS today posted a new episode of Bob Schieffer’s “About the News (https://itun.es/us/VYgadb.c) ” podcast in which we interview the Orlando Sentinel’s managing editor John Cutter about the Orlando terrorist attack, how the paper learned about it and covered it, and how they are coping with the decline of the newspaper business, providing checks on government, media innovation, and more.


** In That Number
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** 50%
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More than half of the 500,000 school-aged Syrian refugees in Lebanon are not enrolled in formal education.
Source: Human Rights Watch (https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/07/19/lebanon-250000-syrian-children-out-school) .


** Critical Quote
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** “We have a serious crisis in US-Turkish relations. The relationship was troubled even before the coup. The US-Turkey split over the YPG is potentially more divisive than the Iraq decision.”
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—CSIS’s Bulent Aliriza on US-Turkey relations. Source: Washington Post’s David Ignatius (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/07/18/the-coup-attempt-dealt-a-new-blow-to-the-strained-u-s-turkish-relationship/) .


** One to Watch
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(Photo Credit: Twitter.)

Ben Watson (@natsecwatson (https://twitter.com/natsecwatson) ) is the news editor at Defense One. Today Ben released a series of interactive articles (http://www.defenseone.com/topic/weapons-syrian-war/) tracking weapons usage in the Syrian conflict.


** Optics
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(Photo Credit: Dan Kitwood-WPA Pool/Getty Images.)

Prime Minister Theresa May (center, left) holds her first cabinet meeting at Downing Street today in London.


** Highly Recommended
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Via The
Economist, “The World Bank hires a famous contrarian: Paul Romer is the bank’s new chief economist (http://www.economist.com/news/21702339-paul-romer-banks-new-chief-economist-world-bank-hires-famous-contrarian) .”


** CSIS Today
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CSIS’s Russia and Eurasia Program hosted “Afghanistan and Central Asia: Shared Security or Divided Insecurity? (https://www.csis.org/events/afghanistan-and-central-asia) ”

CSIS’s Energy and National Security Program hosted a CEO Speaker Session with Scott Sheffield (https://www.csis.org/events/ceo-speaker-session-scott-sheffield) of Pioneer Natural Resources.


** CSIS Tomorrow
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Join CSIS’s Russia and Eurasia Program at 10:00 a.m. for “Russia’s New Nationalism (https://www.csis.org/events/russias-new-nationalism) .”

And join CSIS's Simon Chair in Political Economy tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. for “China and the G20 (https://www.csis.org/events/china-and-g20) ,” featuring keynote speaker Wally O. Adeyemo, deputy national security adviser for international economics at the White House. This event is part of CSIS’s Economic Statecraft Speaker Series.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Join the New America Foundation at 12:15 p.m. for “All Jihad is Local: What ISIS' Files Reveal About Their Fighters. (http://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events/all-jihad-local/) ”

And join the Brookings Institution at 1:30 p.m. for “Reinvigorating the Transatlantic Partnership to Tackle Evolving Threats (http://www.brookings.edu/events/2016/07/20-transatlantic-partnership-ledrian) ,” featuring Jean-Yves Le Drian, French minister of defense.


** CSIS On Demand
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Watch the latest Schieffer Series, “Breaking ISIL’s Brand (https://www.csis.org/events/schieffer-series-breaking-isils-brand) ,” featuring Richard Stengel, under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs, David Sanger of the
New York Times, and Farah Pandith of CFR.


** Sounds
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Listen to the latest National Defense Week podcast (http://www.nationaldefenseweek.com/podcasts/) for a discussion of the US Navy’s involvement in the Rim of the Pacific exercise.


** I Like It Like That
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Track Maven launched its “Fortune 500 Instagram Report (http://pages.trackmaven.com/rs/251-LXF-778/images/instagram-report-16.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=nurture&utm_campaign=instagram-report-6-16&utm_content=whitepaper&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWlRsaVl6WTVPRFl5T1RsaiIsInQiOiJCVmZpQ1F0MmJhOVJsOVQ1NEdKS2lLR0JSSnU3Q250MzlDZmx5WTBIeWR3ZVdcL2I5cFo0OWlwVHFUM0JWN3ArWnp2Nis1K00ybmdjaW5acGNuYWl0ZzJWd1wvK0FURm9GRzNibXZFSEJIalB3cEQ1YnRYRzFIWFRDVW4xeHFuU0NnIn0%3D) ,” an interesting download.


** Smiles
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“Music hath charms, and sometimes keeps one grounded in reality.”

Thanks to everyone who has written to me about our Irish Smiles. Last night a retired senior US military official emailed an unforgettable note containing the above quote.

A highly decorated US Army physician, the writer, a humble soul who I am certain wouldn’t want to be named publically, is an American hero. I was moved when I learned that he had listened to The Chieftains and The Corrs during Iraq combat tours in 2003 and 2006 for which he was awarded 3 bronze stars (1 Valor) and a Purple Heart.

Indeed, “music does hath charms, and sometimes keeps one grounded in reality.” I won’t forget that. Another Irish Smile proving this notion comes again from The Chieftains and friends. This time, our smile (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0R_tnu9G0TM) was recorded in Matt Molloy's Pub, Westport, County Mayo. I’ve been witness to music like this in similarly intimate settings in New Orleans. Ireland may be the only other place on earth that can conjure such soul that keeps one grounded in reality.


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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