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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


MONDAY STAKES - President Barack Obama is back from Asia. The freshman House Republicans have arrived. And here's Morning Score's take on who has the most to gain or lose in the week ahead:


(1) North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler, whose budding leadership challenge to Nancy Pelosi could expand his political profile and land him a permanent spot in the D.C. media lineup, as long as he doesn't embarrass himself; (2) Former Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis, the first publicly declared challenger to RNC Chairman Michael Steele, whose opening week as a candidate will help determine whether he becomes a rallying point for anti-Steele sentiment or just the guy who made it safe for others to jump in; (3) West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, who will be sworn into the U.S. Senate as the newest members of the Democratic caucus, and immediately begin defining themselves through votes in the lame-duck session; (4) West Virginia Republicans, who will try to push for a quick special election to replace Manchin as governor, since state law is hazy on how long Democratic state Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin can serve as a placeholder; (5) The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which will have a harder time instilling confidence in donors every time a senator turns down the committee's chairmanship, as Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet did at the end of last week.


As Joe Miller banks on absentees, Joe Biden does the honors and six races remain too close to call, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


THE 2012 SCORE - PALIN'S PREMIERE - "'Mama Grizzly' fishes, climbs mountains, protects her young," says Entertainment Weekly: "The debut episode, entitled 'Mama Grizzly,' framed the former governor of Alaska the way it frames most of TLC's clan narratives, with careful editing for the maximum positive representation ... There was a subplot that's a subtext to Sarah Palin's Alaska, however: That darned ol' media and its inescapability. The hour spent more time that I'd have though it would with shots of, and Palin's comments on, the house that author Joe McGinniss has commandeered to keep close tabs on the Palins while writing an unauthorized book about them. ... Just as the early, pre-scandal days of Jon + Kate Plus 8 had an agenda (in that case, it was 'large families are super-great!'), so does Sarah Palin's Alaska, which turns out to be, 'large families are super-great, so why are we persecuted?' There's a needless air of embattled pride here that mars the otherwise-lovely surroundings." http://bit.ly/deoD6B


TIM PAWLENTY'S NEW HAMPSHIRE: The Minnesota governor penned an op-ed in the Union-Leader Sunday, calling for an end to the "open bar in Washington." "One of the key lessons from this year's historic elections is that Americans understand that nothing is truly free," Pawlenty writes. "[M]ost of us have attended weddings, some with open bars, and some with cash bars. ... Guests presented with options at a cash bar typically will pause and think about what they would like to consume, how much they would like to consume, and how much it will cost. ... Now consider an open bar. Guests tend to consume almost endlessly (we've all seen it), with no regard for cost, much less the volume of consumption. People at an open bar are more likely to embarrass themselves, not to mention bankrupt the father of the bride." http://bit.ly/d9AJGK


HALEY BARBOUR'S TIMETABLE: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is unlikely to announce a run for president before the end of the next state legislative session, his nephew and adviser Henry Barbour told the Clarion-Ledger. "If he were to decide to run (for president) most likely you wouldn't see a public announcement until the spring because of the session," said the younger Barbour, who also reiterated that the governor has no interest in running for RNC chairman. http://bit.ly/9JWMIA


THE DEM IDENTITY CRISIS ... reached front pages in South Carolina and Alabama over the weekend, as the front page of The State asked, "SC Democrats headed for extinction?" and the Birmingham News wondered, "After Election Day beatdown, are days numbered for Alabama's Democrats?" From The State: "S.C. counties where Democrats run strongest have fewer voters and are growing at a slower rate than Republican-leaning counties. ... Republicans rule the Upstate as well as populous Lexington County in the Midlands. Democrats need to pick up votes along the coast. But an analysis of general election results from 1998 to 2010 shows Democrats are losing ground along the coast." And the Birmingham News: "In the wake of a historic election that saw Democrats lose every single statewide race and lose control of the Legislature for the first time in 136 years, is the Alabama Democratic Party, like the dinosaur, extinct? ... ['The] truth is the Democratic Party in Alabama has been on life support since 1986 and on Tuesday, Nov. 2, the Republicans pulled the plug,' said Natalie Davis, a longtime professor of political science at Birmingham-Southern College." http://bit.ly/dx0Jsc and http://bit.ly/b4iCvj


ALASKA BULLETIN - Republican Senate candidate Joe Miller is depending on absentee ballots to help him overtake Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whose share of the vote held up on a fourth day of write-in ballot-counting Saturday. The Anchorage Daily News reports: "Miller won't spend a lot of time, energy and effort fighting over ballots in Alaska's still-undecided U.S. Senate race if the math doesn't add up in his favor, he said Saturday. But Miller said he won't make any announcements until after absentee ballots come in next week from military voters, a constituency that the Army veteran believes could go heavily for him. ... The count Saturday showed Murkowski with 74,449 votes, or 89.6 percent of the write-in vote undisputedly -- a trend that has largely held throughout the process. Another 7.9 percent was credited to her tally over challenges by Miller observers." http://bit.ly/d6uvHE


UNCALLED IN THE HOUSE: Kentucky Republican Andy Barr conceded defeat to Rep. Ben Chandler, trailing by 648 votes after a recanvass of the 6th Congressional District. Six seats remain up in the air: Democratic incumbents hold narrow leads in CA-11 and CA-20, while Republican challengers are slightly ahead in IL-08, NY-01, NY-20 and TX-27. In Kentucky, the Lexington Herald-Leader reported that Barr "would not answer questions about his political future, including whether he would challenge Chandler again in two years. The Lexington lawyer said he looks forward to returning to private practice. Barr, 36, also announced that he and his wife Carol are expecting a daughter in April." http://bit.ly/cHVeCM


TODAY -- From the White House guidance: "At 4:00 PM, the Vice President will swear in Senators-elect Chris Coons of Delaware and Joe Manchin of West Virginia at the United States Capitol. These swearings-in are open press."


STAY CLASSY, SAN DIEGO: Texas Gov. Rick Perry is poised to become chairman of the Republican Governors Association at the group's conference in San Diego this week. It's a return engagement for Perry, who ran the RGA in 2008. POLITICO's Jonathan Martin scooped: "His appointment to helm the RGA heading into 2011 - when three states will hold governors' races - amounts to the first concrete evidence that the Texan is serious when he says he has no interest in pursuing the White House. It would be nearly impossible to raise money for the committee and help direct the gubernatorial contests in Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucky while running for president. Perry's move does, though, jibe with his oft-stated intent to serve as a leader of state-level opposition against President Barack Obama and the federal government." http://politi.co/ccMMO6 THE RNC RACE - HOMETOWN FAVE: Saul Anuzis picked up symbolic home-state support in his campaign for RNC chair, winning the endorsements of Michigan Gov.-elect Rick Snyder and state Attorney General-elect Bill Schuette. Snyder spokesman Bill Nowling e-mailed Score: "The Governor-elect thinks Saul will do a great job and be an excellent spokesman and leader for the party heading into a presidential cycle. He supports him completely." It's worth saying early and often: the only votes that matter in the race at the 168 members of the RNC. But support from governors, members of Congress and other elected officials can help show that a candidate is serious.


MORE - TESTING THE WATERS: Pennsylvania GOP Chairman Rob Gleason is among the candidates scoping out the RNC race, POLITICO's Andy Barr reports, and he's "talked to a handful of RNC insiders - including former New Jersey committeeman David Norcross - about a potential run, and is touting last Tuesday's huge Republican gains in Pennsylvania as a chief selling point. ... The Pennsylvania chairman has also spoken to Karl Rove - who along with fellow former George W. Bush political hand Ed Gillespie is looking for a challenger to sitting RNC chairman Michael Steele - about a potential run." http://politi.co/cN1EvX


IN CHICAGO - IT'S ON - Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, Rap. Danny Davis and state Sen. James Meeks formally announced their campaigns for mayor this weekend, with Davis calling himself the "grassroots" candidate in the race and Emanuel unveiling a television ad vowing to fight "second-tier" status for the city. "Chicago is a great city with great people, and I want my children to feel as passionate about the city as I did growing up," Emanuel says in his ad, pledging to "make the tough decisions that are necessary." Watch the ad here: http://bit.ly/cRINMX and read about the Davis launch here: http://bit.ly/aCU0hL and the Meeks kickoff here: http://bit.ly/9ufKcQ


PLUS - THAT WAS FAST: Defeated Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias quashed speculation that he might enter the mayor's race, saying through spokeswoman Kathleen Strand that he "didn't get into public service just to run for office ... and his plans are to faithfully serve out the remainder of his term as Treasurer and then pursue other opportunities." http://bit.ly/c5mC46


ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES - SHAKEUP IN NEVADA: The Las Vegas Review-Journal has booted its editor and publisher, ousting two of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's fiercest opponents in the media just weeks after Reid won a new term on Nov. 2. From the Las Vegas Sun: "The moves bring an abrupt end to the [Sherman] Frederick-[Thomas]Mitchell era. Their 18-year tenure as publisher and editor spanned an eventful period in the city's history, including rapid growth, salacious public corruption, newfound political prominence and crushing recession. ... Speculation was rampant inside Stephens Media and in valley media circles that the moves, which were paired with several others on the business side of the operation, came in part as the result of the recent election results. Both Frederick and Mitchell made no secret of their journalistic focus on ousting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid from office, a fact noted in the national media for months."


2012 BEGINS - IN CONNECTICUT: Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon may run again for Senate after losing this year to Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. In an interview with the AP, McMahon "said she plans to meet with her consultants and analyze the campaign. ... She said she also wants to gauge reaction to some of her ads and mailers. McMahon would not say whether she plans to run again in 2012, when Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., is up for re-election. When asked about her future plans, McMahon said she is 'considering a couple of different directions' and will make a decision after Jan. 1. She reiterated, however, that she's not returning to World Wrestling Entertainment, where she was the company's CEO until last fall." http://bit.ly/aHcKW9


MUSICAL CHAIRS: The New York Post is baying for the blood of state GOP Chairman Ed Cox, noting that Republicans lost every statewide election despite a political environment that allowed the party to pick up as many as seven House seats. "For any influence that New York might have in a newly Republican House, thank the National Republican Congressional Committee, which supported and promoted some exceptional candidates," the paper wrote. "In contrast, the state GOP - as run by Chairman Ed Cox - proved to be pathetically ineffectual. ... [A] person of integrity - seeing the embarrassing result of his fumbling - would step aside and give someone else the opportunity to rebuild the New York state Republican Party." http://bit.ly/9S4bDW


CODA - TWEET OF THE DAY: "No one & I mean NO ONE in DC knows what to do w/ 100 newly elected members of Congress, last two classes were something like 13 & 8 newbees" -@auctnr1, a.k.a. Billy Long, the congressman-elect for Missouri's 7th Congressional District

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