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12/19/2017 07:57 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

THE TAX VOTE COMETH - The House will vote today on the Republican tax bill, the first major rewrite of the tax code in more than 30 years. The plan is wildly unpopular with the public and will balloon the deficit by about $1.5 trillion. But Republicans say their bill will deliver economic growth and a much needed legislative victory after failing to repeal Obamacare earlier this year and give them a better chance of holding onto the House and Senate in the November midterms. After the House passes the bill today, it's expected to quickly move to the Senate where Vice President Mike Pence's tie-breaking vote likely isn't needed.

"I'm confident we'll pass it in about 10 hours after the House sends it to us, hopefully early tomorrow afternoon," Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn of Texas said Monday. "We'll pass it either tomorrow night or Wednesday morning."

By the numbers: Only 26 percent of Americans approve of the GOP tax plan in the latest Monmouth University poll, released Monday, and half of those surveyed say they think their taxes will go up. The results: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786acd2b79a2c89cc2059d0c6d4c2a48a394253d22f5590169ac47d22a0737029e5b7698b7781b9fc4e75

Corker kickback? Not quite: A suggestion that Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) suddenly supported the tax bill Friday after getting a special provision tucked into the plan was the talk of the town this weekend. But Corker and other Republicans forcefully pushed back against the idea, saying it wasn't true. And as Seung Min reports, to the people who Corker had been consulting on the tax bill in the last week, his "yes" vote wasn't a shocker. "I didn't walk out saying, 'Oh, he definitely switched.' But when he announced that, I was unsurprised," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the former CBO director who painstakingly went through varying analyses of the tax measure with Corker.

Collins is also on board: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) announced her support for the tax plan Monday, giving the proposal added momentum ahead of the Senate vote. "While it is no means perfect, on balance this reform bill will provide much needed tax relief," Collins said during a floor speech Monday afternoon. "It will benefit low- and middle-income families while spurring the creation of good jobs and greater economic growth." Seung Min: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac7c68f0d14f07dec7b12ad8b7949bb7dfc227f56bbc7acdf6f7faf9fe6db88faedafb5a46c236075f

BID FOR HARASSMENT DATA DENIED - Sen. Tim Kaine's (D-Va.) request for data on sexual harassment claims filed in the Senate has been denied by the secretive Capitol Hill office that processes those complaints. Kaine "sought details Dec. 6 on the taxpayer-funded settlements that the Office of Compliance approved for Senate employers," noting that he would make the broad outlines public, Elana reports. "The compliance office's Monday decision to decline his request is particularly notable given that the office provided the House Administration Committee details on taxpayer-funded settlements processed in that chamber one day after they were requested." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac5e92b8b86d467d9cdaa0eb8869bfedda3cd5c28f7f7adddcddd80dc03e0117e17ebe464fe536102b

MASSIVE DISASTER AID BILL UNVEILED - The House on Monday introduced a staggering $81 billion disaster aid package for hurricane-ravaged states, nearly double the White House's request of $44 billion. The bill, which is split among Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as states ravaged by wildfires, is "the largest single funding request for natural calamities in U.S. history," Sarah Ferris and Bres report. "If approved, Congress will have spent more than $130 billion on a spate of deadly hurricanes and wildfires this fall, outpacing the total amount of aid after both Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac68ff7d56f9b6258b3d8179eac93edc51f8c69ac7cd28aba03d0aee2c332ab1d9c7359af6574deb3d

The disaster aid could get tacked onto a short-term funding bill and is just one of several items Congress needs to address by the end of week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the Senate floor Monday. Other items on Congress' lengthy to-do list include funding for the children's health insurance program, passing legislation to stabilize Obamacare, renewing a federal surveillance program and keeping the government open.

BETTER FINISH UP THAT CHRISTMAS SHOPPING FOLKS. Or hit up the Senate gift shop. Thanks for reading Huddle on this Tuesday, Dec. 19, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Sen. Bob Corker's questions about a tax provision that looks to benefit the Tennessee Republican, via the Tennessean, was the winner to kick off the week.

HOUSE DEMS BATTLE FOR JUDICIARY - Reps. Jerry Nadler and Zoe Lofgren are facing off this week to see who will be the next top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee - and possibly lead impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump if Democrats take back the House. Several members said they think Nadler has a slight edge going into Wednesday's caucus election given his seniority - he's been on the committee for 25 years compared to Lofgren's 23. But both members are well liked and Lofgren has a significant fundraising advantage.

And while both members have given serious thought to what it would take to initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump - both stressed there would have to be support from Republicans and the public to be successful - they were also careful not to seem too eager about the possibility. "I'm not running as an impeachment candidate and I don't think Jerry Nadler is either," Lofgren told your Huddle host. More with Kyle: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac92a673ff978f7bf9635fb946ab88ca3ddbd51c661048bf37f43a618ff05fea7b9175e068d2bb8b3f

'TOXIC' ENVIRONMENT IN SHERMAN'S OFFICE - Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) is facing more questions about what he knew following the resignation of a longtime staffer and current member of the California legislature over sexual harassment allegations. "Sherman says none of his staff ever complained about... Matt Dababneh, who's been accused of sexual harassment while working in the congressman's district office," reports Emily Cadei this morning. But "eight former aides said the environment in Sherman's D.C. and California offices was so toxic, it was laughable to think junior staff would have felt comfortable raising concerns about harassment - or anything else." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac15b24c6a47cda63c2ee76cb11976aff9bee48716858f05a8fb9a07ec49a9f9ef8884990c8ef44441

THE MANCHIN PODCAST IS OUT - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) made waves yesterday after saying he thinks Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) was unfairly pushed out by Democrats and should reconsider resigning. Now the full Manchin interview, recorded for Edward-Isaac Dovere's Off Message podcast, is out. "I was an easy pickup. Very easy pickup," Manchin said of the White House's inability to poach votes from red-state Democrats. "And a couple, two, three other Democrats would have been easy pickups, if they had just made an effort." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786aced1bf8cda7c7f6940a0e1a7d79b22c2bc9ef4e9afdb04da0453d495edd30034217439efaa8354726

Side note: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) met with Franken's replacement, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Tina Smith, in the Capitol on Monday, Manu Raju reports.


TRUMP JUDICIAL NOMINEE WITHDRAWS - A third Trump judicial nominee has failed to make it past the vetting process. Matthew Petersen withdrew his name from consideration Monday after a video went viral last week of Petersen failing to answer basic legal questions posed by Republican Sen. John Kennedy, HuffPost's Jen Bendery reports. The White House gave up on two of its other judicial nominees last week after questions about qualifications and controversial statements.

Still, the Senate has confirmed 12 of Trump's circuit court judges this year, "more than any president has gotten in their first year since the courts were created in 1891," Bendery reports. "That's in addition to putting Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court and getting six district court nominees confirmed." Jen with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac27d3c8d51aa07137f9ac13d4f990659c7c40a176aa3137434609513f9ea187ff867e90af285f4588

Quote du jour: "Just because you've seen 'My Cousin Vinny' doesn't qualify you to be a federal judge," Kennedy said on Monday. And don't miss this report from Sam Stein on how Kennedy and other Republicans are pushing back as Trump's top lawyer tries to stack the bench: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac643c2db05c4ade49a75a70b17cfaf15e7f6afa3feb4e482318290becfb37fd19229bbde30e5349fa

GARRETT'S EX-IM NOM LIKELY BLOCKED - Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is expected to vote against Export-Import Bank nominee Scott Garrett in the Senate Banking Committee this morning, likely blocking Garrett's nomination. "With the panel's Republican-to-Democrat ratio 12-11 and all Democrats expected to vote 'no,' Republicans could only afford one defection and Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., is already on the record saying he plans to oppose Garrett on Tuesday," Emma Dumain reports for McClatchy. Garrett was a staunch opponent of Ex-Im while a member of the House and his nomination to lead the bank has been rife with controversy. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac35390bc4dc42bfee692ff3c8f2a982a336c276a6b55e8292ec2b2f85aa14abbb2a3d324b928c982b

SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON - White House lawyers likely won't be receiving the good news they're hoping for when they meet with special counsel Robert Mueller's office later this week. "People with knowledge of the investigation said it could last at least another year," Devlin Barrett, Josh Dawsey and Carol D. Leonnig report. White House lawyers, meanwhile, have been telling Trump they expect the investigation to wrap up early next year. "The dynamic threatens to intensify the already inflamed political atmosphere enveloping the investigation into Russia's meddling in the 2016 election. Even as White House lawyers have pledged to cooperate with Mueller, Trump and his allies have accused
the Justice Department and FBI of bias and overreach." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786acf33487a298669ee6c83a51acc6a0a2e2a7331feb391806f8ec36f1fbf4e5bad669fb156f8e20012e

TODAY IN CONGRESS - The House gavels in at 9 a.m. with first votes at 11:30 a.m., second votes around 1 p.m. (the expected tax bill vote) and last votes around 4:30 p.m. Today's agenda: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f0006418c63727dffe0fe322f3559cbae62c55313764cb03d713f35c18dfadc36b5eab55d03af3b3d1486b43a03faca The Senate meets at 10 a.m. with a roll call vote at 12:10 p.m. on Jennifer Newstead, nominee to be legal adviser for the State Department.

AROUND THE HILL - Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), GOP Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.) take questions from reporters at 10 a.m. in HC-8.

House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) holds his weekly press conference at 10:15 a.m. in HVC Studio A. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) holds his weekly pen and pad at 11 a.m. in H-144.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will hold a press conference on the GOP tax bill at 11:30 a.m. in the Rayburn Room (H-207).

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Four current senators are among the 15 oldest lawmakers to ever serve in the upper chamber. Sen. Patrick Leahy, 77, has served for more than 42 years; Sen. Orrin Hatch, 83, has served 40 years; Sen. Thad Cochran, 80, has been in the chamber 38 years; and Sen. Chuck Grassley, 84, has served for 36 years. The full list of longest serving senators: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3ffcea5448b786ac212c5dd91b4540506462070b949862138aa0be23e1db8182eda12d3f593ba4c2a97710357c089d3d

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Bruce Mehlman with today's question: Speaker Paul Ryan hails from Wisconsin. His predecessor was an Ohioan. In the 228-year history of the U.S., how many different states have House speakers come from and which state can claim the most? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: hcaygle@politico.com.

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