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I meant to have you on original but hit send to quickly after a call.

Michael

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Michael Andrews <mandrews@ips.edu>
> Date: August 30, 2010 10:34:19 AM EDT
> To: Thad Brown <thad@ips.edu>, Curt Hastings <curt@ips.edu>
> Subject: Fwd: Re; Australian Election Status
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
>> From: "Rowe, Trevor" <Trevor.Rowe@rothschild.com>
>> Date: August 29, 2010 9:39:36 PM EDT
>> To: <mandrews@ips.edu>
>> Subject: Re; Australian Election Status
>>
>>
>> Dear Michael,
>>
>> The expected final count in the House of Representatives is 72
>> seats for ALP, 72 seats Coalition, 1 WA National Party member who
>> is planning to sit on the cross benches, 1 Green and 4 Independents
>> (Figure 1). Assuming that the WA National supports the Coalition
>> and the Green supports the ALP, then either Party only requires 3
>> of the Independents to form Government. The Independents, while
>> appearing notionally conservative, support the national broadband
>> network (NBN) so their decision on which Party they will support
>> forming government remains uncertain and may not be resolved until
>> next week.
>>
>>
>> The minerals resource rent tax could be passed under an ALP
>> government as it is likely that 2 of the Gang 3 plus the new
>> independent and the Greens likely would support it. But under a
>> Coalition government the tax would not proceed.The NBN is likely to
>> proceed regardless of which Party forms government because the
>> Coalition most likely will need to compromise to gain the support
>> of the Independents. It is too early to know how the major Parties
>> will accommodate the Independents’ “new paradigm” on food security,
>> foreign investment, water, and other policies that bear on regional
>> development.
>>
>> While the rhetoric of the Independents and the Green is the
>> formation of a stable government, the reality is that a minority
>> government requires 3 of the 4 Independents to vote with it on
>> every single Parliamentary Bill. The markets face a more uncertain
>> political backdrop. The markets will look through this uncertainty
>> provided key macro policy commitments remain in place, including
>> returning the budget to surplus by FY13.
>>
>> Best wishes
>> Trevor
>>
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>