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The Death of a Moderate: How O'Donnell wonThe HotlineSeptember 15, 2010 10:37 AMBy James A. BarnesHow did Christine O'Donnell go from being a weak third place finisher in the '06 Delaware Republican Senate primary to slaying the party's top vote getter, Rep. Mike Castle, and becoming the GOP 2010 Senate nominee today? An analysis of the returns from the state's 41 election districts shows that O'Donnell did it by winning working class towns and suburbs, the fastest growing parts of the state, and Delaware's reliably conservative turf in Kent and Sussex Counties. Castle did well in Wilmington and the old-line GOP suburbs outside of Wilmington as well as in Newark, home to the University of Delaware. But these areas that were once the base for moderate Republicans on the East Coast, like Castle, had a relatively lower turnout in the primary compared their percentage of registered Republicans in the state.Castle won Wilmington handily, 76% to 24% over O'Donnell, but outside of District 4, where Castle lives the GOP vote in Wilmington is insignificant and last night it comprised only 3.7% of the statewide GOP primary turnout. In the traditionally Republican suburbs outside of Wilmington known as the Brandywine Hundred, Castle also rolled up a healthy 63% majority. But those election districts -- 6, 7, 10 and 11 -- only made up 12.4% of the primary vote. At the same time, those four districts contain 14.8% of the state's registered Republicans. (Delaware is a closed primary state, independents who have contributed mightily to Castle's success in general elections in the state cannot vote in party tprimaries.) In Greenville, another wealthy suburb, Castle rolled up a huge 73% win. Overall, Castle captured Newark, which hugs the state's border with Maryland, with 62% of the vote. But in Newark's working class district, O'Donnell won with 55% of the vote.Castle also comfortably carried the middle class Wilmington suburbs in the Pike Creek corridor portion the state, 60% to 40%, but in the close-in working class towns of Elsmere and Newport, O'Donnell battled Castle to a draw winning Newport with 51% while losing Elsmere with 49%. To the south, in New Castle and Christiana, where working class Republicans reside, O'Donnell won again with 51 percent of the vote. In Bear and Glasgow, which is a combination of working class and middle class suburbs and represented a true battleground in this primary, O'Donnell won with 57% of the vote.Further South in Middletown, Odessa, Townsend and Smyrna, the fastest growing part of the state where many of the area's Republicans are relative newcomers to the state and thus less likely to have a long history of voting for Castle, O'Donnell won decisively with 60% of the vote. O'Donnell's margin here offset her loss in the middle class Wilmington suburbs of Pike Creek and then some.Then in the conservative portions of the state, Kent and Sussex Counties, O'Donnell overwhelmed Castle. She won Kent, minus Smyrna, with 64% of the vote. In eastern Sussex County, which includes popular beach towns of Rehoboth and Lewes, O'Donnell posted a 62% victory. And in western Sussex, probably the most conservative territory in the state, she captured a whopping 70% of the vote. Her 2,916 vote margin there almost completely negated the 2,927 vote advantage that Castle built up in Wilmington and the well-off Brandywine Hundred suburbs, combined.The upper class suburbs like the ones around Wilmington used to be able to provide the margin of victory for moderate Republicans in primaries. But as the GOP has moved in a more conservative direction nationally in the last two-to-three decades, many of those moderate suburban voters have switched their party registration to independent or Democratic. And there are just not enough GOP votes left in that territory to provide a safe haven for moderate Republicans, even an icon like Mike Castle
------Original Message------
From: Beau Biden
To: Joe Rogalsky
Cc: Ted Kaufman
Cc: Mike Donilon
Cc: Alex Snyder-Mackler
Subject: Re: Interview request from Randall Chase of the Associated Press
Sent: Sep 15, 2010 11:18 AM

Done


On Sep 15, 2010, at 10:08 AM, Joe Rogalsky <joerogalsky@gmail.com> wrote:

> Team --
>
> Randall Chase of the AP called me this morning to ask to talk to Beau about the results of last night's Republican primary, specifically whether he is second-guessing his decision not to run for the Senate.
>
> I think this would be a good reporter call for Beau to return because last night I spent a lot time with various reporters and bloggers - on background - knocking down the rumor that Beau is "kicking himself" for not running this year since Castle lost, etc.
>
> In talking to those folks, I made it clear that 1) Beau made his decision because of the Bradley case, it had nothing to do with Castle and that 2) Beau has worked very hard for Coons, thinks Chris will make a great Senator and is going to work hard over the next seven weeks to help Chris win.
>
> While it may be annoying, I think it would be good for Beau to knock this down in an interview once and be done with it, but am interested in what you all think.
>
> Joe


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