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> From: "Stephen Mckew" <mckewsjr@bigpond.com>
> Date: August 23, 2010 11:37:14 PM EDT
> To: "Michael Andrews" <mandrews@ips.edu>
> Subject: Re: Australian Election
>
> Hi Michael,
>
> It has been an interesting couple of days. At this point the most
> likely outcome appears to be 73 Labor 73 Coalition 1 Green and 3
> Independents for a total of 150. This outcome however requires the
> Coalition to win the final 4 very tight seats.
>
> If the Coalition does not win all the tight seats they will not have
> enough seats to form Government even with the 3 Independents as the
> Green has declared he will support a Gillard Government.
>
> At this stage I think it is 65%-35% that the ALP will form a
> minority Government but as postal votes do not close till 3
> September we may not know who will win the very tight seats till
> then so it may still at least 10 days before we know the outcome.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Stephen
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Michael Andrews"
> <mandrews@ips.edu>
> To: "Stephen Mckew" <mckewsjr@bigpond.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, August 24, 2010 12:17 AM
> Subject: Australian Election
>
>
>> Stephen,
>>
>> I think you recent comment to me pretty well nailed the election
>> that Labor would stumble across line or a hung parliament. I
>> watched some of the live coverage and was fascinated by the close
>> election quite reminiscent of the recent UK election. Are the
>> independents and the green member more likely to back coalition or
>> labor. I suspect the best deal would bring in the independents. It
>> should be an interesting 10 days or so.
>>
>> Let me know what you think will happen.
>>
>> Michael
>
>