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By Elena Schneider | 03/08/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Theodoric Meyer, Scott Bland and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

DELEGATE DAY - "Is Trump peaking? We'll find out Tuesday," by POLITICO's Patrick Reis: "Donald Trump will discover today whether his weekend struggles were a speed bump - or the first signs of larger troubles ahead. If the polls are to believed, Trump is in for a dominant day, with blowouts in Michigan and Mississippi to be complemented by another win in Idaho. If Trump falls short, and particularly if he falls short to Ted Cruz for the second time in four days, the businessman's delegate math (and the general momentum of the primary) gets more complicated." Read on for details on today's delegate rules and the state of play in Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab5887999426f7a2f62bbc0b9a1a786960026e48679187362e

FIRST IN SCORE - American Action Network backs Shimkus on TV ahead of Illinois primary: Just days since Congressional Leadership Fund swooped into TX-08 to help GOP Rep. Kevin Brady in his primary, the group's sister nonprofit, American Action Network, is making a $200,000 independent expenditure backing GOP Rep. John Shimkus in IL-15. The bulk of the spending is for a broadcast and cable buy covering five markets, but it includes a digital and GOTV phone call component as well. The spot calls Shimkus "a strong conservative voice" and portrays him as a fighter against Obamacare and Planned Parenthood and for gun rights.

- Shimkus faces Club for Growth-endorsed state Sen. Kyle McCarter in a March 15 Republican primary. Watch the ad here. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab405f72fabe74312512161810e8756a8ea9ce44acca4b9548

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

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FIRST IN SCORE - Poll: Most Missouri voters support filling Supreme Court vacancy: A new poll conducted for End Citizens United PAC, which backs Democrats who support campaign finance reform, finds that 61 percent of likely voters in Missouri support President Barack Obama and the Senate taking action to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by Justice Antonin Scalia's death; 35 percent support waiting for the next president to make the appointment. The poll was conducted by Normington Petts and Anzalone Liszt Grove last week and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It remains unclear, however, how voters' attitudes will shift once Obama nominates an actual person
to fill the vacancy. The PAC is currently running TV ads hitting GOP Sen. Roy Blunt over the Supreme Court vacancy.

REALIGNMENT - Kentucky state House specials could flip chamber to Republicans: "With a little luck and a big Republican turnout on Tuesday, the GOP could effectively gain control of the Kentucky House of Representatives after four special elections to fill seats vacated when members moved up to statewide office or accepted appointments from Gov. Matt Bevin," the Louisville Courier-Journal's Joseph Gerth reports. "... Democrats have registration advantages in three of the four districts, but voters don't always vote that way, particularly when federal issues are at play." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256abba1721e943a7e25a2338ea6219efd517b5d35fe805cccfda

THE BIGGEST ENDORSEMENT - President Barack Obama on Monday endorsed a primary challenger over a Democratic state legislator in Illinois, a highly unusual move for a sitting president. Obama also cut a TV ad backing Juliana Stratton, who is competing against Democratic state Rep. Ken Dunkin for a seat in Chicago. The president narrates the entire 30-second spot, lauding Stratton for spending her career "improving the juvenile justice system and protecting public safety." Stratton "will fight to get guns off our streets and fight for tougher penalties for violent offenders," Obama adds - a top priority in determining which Democrats he'll back. The president also cut a 60-second radio ad for
Stratton.

- Dunkin did not vote with Democrats on two crucial bills last year, angering his party. Neither ad mentions Dunkin, who represents a Chicago district that stretches from the affluent River North neighborhood to rougher stretch of the South Side not far from the Obamas' home. Stratton is hoping Obama's roots in the city will make the ad resonate with voters. "This is his home state. This is his home city," she told Campaign Pro. "It will mean a lot to the residents of the district."

- Key question for the next six months: Is Obama just dipping back into local politics for one race, or is this the start of a year of diving into primaries around the country - one final way to leave a mark on his party? As we note, it would be a rare move for a president, but it would not an unprecedented one. Franklin Roosevelt personally campaigned against a group of conservative, anti-New Deal Democratic incumbents in 1938, though his candidates were largely unsuccessful.

- Watch the TV ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256aba720d7c3a9d4e10f16c2b147bf1c9c0159b40e8897f1f656

- Listen to the radio ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab0b526a2344703e1bfd6510fa2c29695f01ce3844f6773f18

TV TIMEOUT - McGinty hits the airwaves: Pennsylvania Democrat Katie McGinty is up with her first TV ad, which you can see here. Her campaign says it plans to be on the air continuously through the late-April primary.

- GOP Rep. Dave Joyce is getting more help fending off a tea party challenger ahead of the Ohio primary next week. Defending Main Street, a super PAC backing establishment Republicans in Congress, is going up with a TV ad today backing Joyce. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab0fb03f5d936e21dde41281c2bbb051387b7b867b52f0e62a

- The NRSC is moving a digital ad attacking former Gov. Ted Strickland as a "man-child" to cable airwaves. The committee made a small buy ahead of the state's March 15 primary, in which Strickland is expected to easily defeat Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld for the Democratic nomination to face GOP Sen. Rob Portman in the fall. Watch the ad here.

PRE-PRIMARY NUMBERS IN N.C. - Roy Cooper, North Carolina's likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee, raised $1.1 million since the start of 2016, with $5.7 million in cash on hand, according to a statement from the campaign. GOP Gov. Pat McCrory's campaign has not released his numbers yet, the Raleigh News and Observer reported.. Cooper has consistently led McCrory in fundraising in the last year. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab9c594be7cd3fd377f56e550d6eb6aa365b292c909f9faf9b

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Cruz forces Rubio to defend turf," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo, Shane Goldmacher, and Katie Glueck: "Ted Cruz is threatening to make one of the biggest gambles of the 2016 season: diving into Florida to knock off Marco Rubio. ... The aim: pull enough voters away from Rubio to ensure Donald Trump wins the state's 99 delegates and deny the Florida senator any pick-up opportunity elsewhere by forcing him to defend his turf. Doing that gives Trump a bigger lead in delegates, but it means Cruz has calculated he can catch up. ... But the strategy is risky. Cruz doesn't want Trump to get too strong." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab1836065f9cec4035d104687aa49e9585e778c23eaff0fb8b

- "Michael Bloomberg will not enter presidential race," by The New York Times' Maggie Haberman and Alexander Burns: "Michael R. Bloomberg, who for months quietly laid the groundwork to run for president as an independent, will not enter the 2016 campaign, he said Monday, citing his fear that a three-way race could lead to the election of a candidate he thinks would endanger the country: Donald J. Trump. ...The decision by Mr. Bloomberg, who served three terms as the mayor of New York, ends months of intensive preparation for a candidacy. Convinced that a restive electorate was crying out for nonpartisan, technocratic government, he instructed his closest aides to set up the machinery for a
long-shot billion-dollar campaign that would have subjected his image to a scorching political test.They covertly assembled several dozen strategists and staff members, conducted polling in 22 states, drafted a website, produced television ads and set up campaign offices in Texas and North Carolina, where the process of gathering petitions to put Mr. Bloomberg's name on the ballot would have begun in days." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab1e5802c516e0cbced4970030fd66f5aab28af4e3ab9f0eab

- "Why Bloomberg pulled the plug," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "His decision not to run was a reality check in an election cycle that's become a reality show: if a viable candidate with $40 billion and nothing but his ego and reputation to lose can't find a path in one of the most tumultuous election cycles ever, a real third-party presidential campaign might be an impossibility." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab12476431f04aadbeda86d939832ac60d7c217bf7ae408627

- "Mitt Romney records phone message for Marco Rubio's campaign," by The New York Times' Jonathan Martin: "Offering [Rubio] a much-needed boost, if not an outright endorsement, Mitt Romney has recorded get-out-the-vote calls for Mr. Rubio's presidential campaign that are being sent to voters in the four states voting on Tuesday. Mr. Romney indicates, at the beginning and end of the message, that he is calling on behalf of Mr. Rubio but only urges voters to cast ballots for 'a candidate who can defeat Hillary Clinton and who can make us proud' ... The explicit point of the message from Mr. Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee, is less about helping Mr. Rubio than it is about sowing doubts
regarding Donald J. Trump. 'If we Republicans were to choose Donald Trump as our nominee, I believe that the prospects for a safe and prosperous future would be greatly diminished - and I'm convinced Donald Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton,' Mr. Romney says in the call." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab8490102d73ed49d696c0a971ffdf1ad4301eb79242952d57

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Despite the fact that the story right now is panic in the streets, throw the baby out the window and hope the firefighter catches her ... hope springs eternal." - AEI president Arthur Brooks, on the "stop-Trump movement," via the Washington Post. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dd72e3fe5fe256ab18d49047dcdc74e7e33c59c6ceb169a535a992d923d9f784

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