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By Scott Bland | 02/17/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

TURNOUT FOR WHAT - Get ready for more record Republican turnout on Saturday: We've already seen record turnout in the Iowa and New Hampshire GOP presidential contests. Don't look for the trend to stop in South Carolina. Republican primary voters already returned 25,172 absentee ballots through Tuesday, nearly as many as the 27,739 absentee voters who participated in the 2012 primary. Meanwhile, the state has already issued another 10,000 GOP absentee ballots that haven't been returned yet. State GOP chairman Matt Moore is on the record predicting turnout of at least 650,000, which would easily clear the mark of just over 600,000 set in 2012.

- We still have two weeks to go until the huge slate of March primaries begins, but this phenomenon doesn't appear to be isolated: Republicans in Tarrant County, Texas' third-largest county, "shattered" records on the first day of early voting there, the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram reported. 4,617 Republicans cast ballots for the March 1 primary on Tuesday - about 2,000 votes higher than the previous mark. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8ed2188da5a647866afbdde5483603df8f8fce4710e075eb79c8710b99ab13d7

TOP TARGETS - Parties outline top 2016 state legislative priorities: Defending state Houses in Colorado and Kentucky, state Senates in Minnesota and New Mexico, and both chambers in Oregon are priorities for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee in 2016 as the party looks to rebuild power in the states. Then, it's a focus on offense for the DLCC, per executive director Jessica Post. The DLCC is targeting 11 chambers as flip-able this fall: Houses in Michigan (where GOP Gov. Rick Snyder is embroiled in the Flint water crisis), Minnesota, and New Mexico; Senates in Colorado, Maine, New York and West Virginia; and both chambers in New Hampshire and Nevada. "We've got terrific
candidates," Post said. "Really impressed with the candidates who have come out of the woodwork" in these key states.

- The Republicans take a similar view of the map, just in reverse. "We've got plenty to defend, but also a number of opportunities to go on offense," Republican State Leadership Committee President Matt Walter said. In addition to some of the same chambers Post mentioned, Walter highlighted Washington's state House for possible GOP inroads, as well as the Iowa state Senate. Republicans are also hoping to direct time, effort, and money toward undoing Democratic supermajorities in states like Illinois and Massachusetts later this year, too.

OPTIONS OPEN - "GOP keeps door ajar on SCOTUS consideration," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Mitch McConnell's message to the White House after Antonin Scalia's death on Saturday seemed unequivocal: Don't even bother sending a Supreme Court nominee to Congress ... But on Tuesday, some Republicans were signaling they're open to at least holding hearings ... In an interview on Tuesday afternoon Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin bristled at the suggestion that his party would completely ignore a nomination: 'It's amazing how many words are being put in everybody's mouth.' ... Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of the Judiciary Committee, said on Tuesday that the rush to dismiss any pick
threatens to undermine GOP messaging. ... Indeed, Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) emphasized in his Monday statement backing McConnell that Obama is well within his rights to choose a nominee. This year Toomey has made willingness to fight for his state's lower level lifetime judicial appointees a major point of his reelection campaign, but that goodwill toward the Obama administration does not extend to the Supreme Court." politi.co/1omOLlj

Days until the South Carolina Republican primary and Nevada Democratic caucuses: 4. Days until the 2016 election: 266.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about land wars in Asia: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

Event Friday: POLITICO's Sixth Annual State Solutions Conference - POLITICO hosts one-on-one conversations with governors Phil Bryant (R-Miss.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Asa Hutchinson (R-Ark.), Jack Markell (D-Del.), Matt Mead (R-Wyo.), Jay Nixon (D-Mo.) and Peter Shumlin (D-Vt.) as the National Governors Association comes to town. Feb. 19, 11:30 a.m. - 901 K St. NW. RSVP: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8ed2188da5a6478645721edbe4ee6ee36f77cecba93bc04e6b5d6ce1a071a969

CAN'T CATCH ME - "Broadcasters tout poll showing TV still dominates campaign messaging," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8ed2188da5a64786055871a23e11a25ac4c864e7b850e53b45c228a5501a5349

FIRST IN SCORE - House Majority PAC staffs up for 2016: The leading House Democratic super PAC has made three new hires as the 2016 cycle heats up. Jeb Fain is the group's new communications director after serving in the DCCC press shop, while new research director Casey Nusselhauf joins from EMILY's List's WOMEN VOTE program. Courtney Ryan also joins the super PAC as a a senior member of the finance team after a stint as a regional candidate fundraising director at the DCCC.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

TV TIMEOUT - In NV-04, Democratic state Sen. Ruben Kihuen released his first digital ad Tuesday, highlighting his family story and his mother's Culinary Union membership with a speech he gave at a party event in January. Kihuen's first advertising comes as primary opponent Lucy Flores features in Bernie Sanders' statewide advertising. Flores has endorsed Sanders and narrates one of his ads straight-to-camera, giving her added exposure after her 2014 run for lieutenant governor (and a 2015 which saw her finish at the back of the Democratic pack in fundraising in the district). Kihuen's campaign is calling the Sanders ad an illegal contribution to Flores' campaign, per KTNV. bit.ly/1KoVTrX

- In IA-01, Democrat Monica Vernon has started reserving pre-primary TV time. Her campaign has started purchasing time on Cedar Rapids broadcast beginning May 10 and running through the primary in early June.

- And one bit of TV news that, now, is no longer campaign news: CNBC pundit Larry Kudlow announced Tuesday that he will not run for Senate in Connecticut, though he'd been musing publicly about challenging Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal for months. Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard has more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8ed2188da5a6478697e6dbae16ee6b9cef764821ba2ababf8a4cc9ab6eaa13ff

FIRST TAKE - "Louisiana Senate poll gives Kennedy early lead," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: The poll, from Southern Media and Opinion Research, is just the latest to show state Treasurer John Kennedy ahead; he is the best-known candidate, having spent years in statewide office. politico.pro/249vN2v

MOVING MONEY - Two Democrats pulled in endorsements Tuesday that could help move money their way. In NH-01, former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter won support from the League of Conservation Voters - which could help her in both the general and a primary against self-funding businessman Shawn O'Connor. And in California's Senate race, the Latino Victory Fund backed Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Catherine Cortez Masto's quest in Nevada to become the first Latina senator gets more attention, but LVF announced it will direct money Sanchez's way to help her toward that goal, too.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Bush, Rubio collide in scramble for Florida's early voters," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "Florida and Ohio, the two biggest winner-take-all prizes on the presidential primary calendar in March, aren't waiting until next month to vote. They're voting now - and with potentially profound consequences for the 2016 campaign. Struggling to survive until their home states' votes are tallied March 15, Ohio's John Kasich and Floridians Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are racing to bank tens of thousands of early ballots that are increasingly being cast well before primary day. 'With about half the vote in by Election Day, we're treating Feb. 15 to March 15 as one long
Election Day in Florida,' said Rubio's deputy campaign manager, Rich Beeson, who oversaw Mitt Romney's 2012 ground game as political director."

- "In Florida, nearly 850,000 Republican absentee ballots have so far been requested. Almost 43,000 Floridians have already voted, roughly 25,000 of them Republicans. Rich Heffley, a top Tallahassee GOP operative who played a major role in John McCain's big Florida win in 2008 and is now running Bush's early-vote efforts in the state, said the absentee program is a "critical part of our strategy.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8ed2188da5a6478638898c1ac7726b21a27aa8a05dfd7ec8f11aafb409047d36

- "For Ted Cruz, the 2013 shutdown was a defining moment," by the Washington Post's David A. Fahrenthold and Katie Zezima: "Cruz's gambit didn't work. Neither Senate Democrats nor Obama gave an inch on their cherished law. Instead, the government shut down for 16 days, and Republicans in Congress were blamed for it ... Today, the drama that surrounded the shutdown ... is the defining moment of a Senate tenure that has helped make Cruz the favorite Republican presidential candidate for many conservatives. To those supporters, the shutdown signaled the depth of Cruz's commitment to rein in government. But for many Republicans in Congress, this was the episode that soured them on Cruz. Many
suspect that he always knew his plan would fail but went ahead with it anyway - expecting that he would personally benefit from the exposure, even if his party lost a damaging fight. 'He knew that. He knew it. He knew it,' former senator Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) said. 'It wasn't about the shutdown. It wasn't about the Affordable Care Act. It was about launching Ted Cruz.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8ed2188da5a64786a5fda0fd76da87034e330457325ba9d525f98dc8091089b9

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Trump does it, believe me, you'd read about it. 'What's wrong with Trump?' So there'll be no barking." - Your 2016 Republican polling leader, Donald Trump. politi.co/1PPgaUj

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: The race for influence in the 2016 election cycle is gaining speed. Everyone is looking to reach as big of an audience as possible and get significant portions of that audience motivated and educated enough to vote and mobilize probable supporters. As the pace quickens, more will be trying to find an edge to influence voters their way. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions, Sinclair
Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is the bottom line - winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673. **

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