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By Elena Schneider | 02/23/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Scott Bland, Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

ROCKING THE VOTE - Hundreds of thousands of ballots already cast in GOP Super Tuesday race: Nevada Republicans vote today; South Carolina Democrats vote Saturday. But hundreds of thousands of Super Tuesday voters have already cast ballots too, long before March 1. In Texas, nearly 218,000 Republicans had already voted by Sunday - compared to about 152,500 at the equivalent time before the 2012 primary. Early voting ends today in Tennessee, which has already tallied over 185,000 votes in the GOP race. And Georgia announced over 63,000 votes cast at the end of last week, with more on the way after a sharp uptick in returns in the last few days.

- Question to watch on March 1: Just how many early votes did Jeb Bush bank before he dropped out of the presidential race on Feb. 20? And could it possibly be enough to swing the delegate chase in some places?

IF IT WERE ANYONE ELSE - "GOP wakes up to Trump nightmare," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: " ... With the controversial businessman the clear front-runner heading into Nevada and next week's Super Tuesday contests, there's an emerging consensus that the odds of dislodging him are growing longer by the day. Whispered fears that Trump could become the Republican nominee have given way to a din of resigned conventional wisdom - with top party officials and strategists openly wondering what the path to defeating him will be. ...The biggest hurdle confronting the mogul's four rivals is that they continue to divide support among themselves. While the field has winnowed, the compressed nature of
this year's Republican primary calendar means there is precious little time for the anti-Trump field to consolidate. Should Trump notch his third consecutive win on Tuesday, some foresee him steamrolling through Super Tuesday a week later, when a quarter of the party's delegates are awarded." politi.co/1T3AOX8

ONE-ON-ONE WITH CAMPAIGN PRO - The race to replace Sen. Marco Rubio, the anointed GOP establishment candidate, is on. In many ways, its characters reflect those in the presidential race (but with less dramatic flair, at least so far). There are two wealthy businessmen, Carlos Beruff and Todd Wilcox; a conservative firebrand, Rep. Ron DeSantis; and establishment leaders, Rep. David Jolly and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Lopez-Cantera, for his part, said he doesn't believe in lanes, but rather, he's "the guy who cares about Florida. The rest of the guys are the guys who care about Washington, D.C." Campaign Pro spoke with Lopez-Cantera about his campaign, policy issues and Donald Trump.

- On distinguishing himself in a crowded primary: "I have a record that actually shows accomplishments, that's the difference. I'm not a congressman who just got to Congress who's never accomplished anything and wants a promotion."

- On drawing inspiration from Marco Rubio's Senate race: "His strategy in 2009 and 2010 worked, and I'm pursuing a similar strategy, which is to focus on people who vote in Florida and putting 10,000 miles on the car a month and getting in front of and talking to as many of them as we can. It's working."

- On a possible Gov. Rick Scott endorsement: "I know that he will not."

- Read more from Lopez-Cantera's interview here: politico.pro/1oEPvTV.

Days until the South Carolina Democratic primary: 4. Days until the 2016 election: 258.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about hugs from a 106-year-old woman: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

AIR WAR - Duckworth airing TV ad ahead of primary: Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth's Senate campaign will start airing TV ads today ahead of the Illinois primary. The spot outlines Duckworth's biography, including her family's struggles during her childhood and her injuries in the Iraq War. "Tammy will work to make student loans affordable, and retirements secure," the narrator says in the only mention of policy in the 30-second ad. The spot does not mention Duckworth's Democratic rival, Andrea Zopp, against whom Duckworth is heavily favored. The ads are running on broadcast and cable stations in the Rockford, Champaign, Peoria and Paducah, Ky., markets. The Duckworth campaign declined to
confirm how much it's spending on the ads or whether they'll air in Chicago, too.

- Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d391949d92960c5ae32b08593acdc52b42ee914a21d269202f

MAKING THE LEAP - GOP Rep. Dan Webster will jump to Florida's Republican-heavy 11th District, currently represented by retiring Rep. Richard Nugent, in the 2016 elections. Redistricting made Webster's current 10th District prohibitively Democratic-leaning. More than 60 percent of voters in Webster's redrawn district voted for President Obama in the 2012 election. But the 11th is safely Republican, so much so that Webster may face competition for the GOP nod despite being a sitting member of Congress. More here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d330ceaabb2fd6f01f4f5ee86a79a443359b868725f8e29cbc

** A message from Katz Radio Group: Katz Radio Group is your one-stop media partner. Timing is everything in an election. Let Katz Radio Group give you the reach and speed you need to effectively deliver your message. Katz Radio Group delivers every station, in every market, on every platform, with one call.
Contact: Patrick.McGee@katzradiogroup.com **

POLLING REPORT - Internal: Throne-Holst leads Calone in NY-01 Democratic primary: Former Southampton Town Superviser Anna Throne-Holst leads her rival Dave Calone in the Democratic primary in New York's 1st District, according to an internal poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove. Thirty-six percent of likely primary voters support Throne-Holst and 25 percent support Calone, with a plurality, 39 percent, still undecided. The results reflect the gap in name identification between the candidate - 40 percent of likely voters are familiar with Throne-Holst, and 29 percent are familiar with Calone. The poll was conducted earlier this month and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2
percentage points. GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin, a freshman, holds the eastern Long Island swing seat.

FIRST AD FOR BURR - North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr is up with the first television ad of his reelection bid, highlighting his experience as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. ... The 30-second ad will go up on broadcast stations in Raleigh and Greensboro, backed by a $100,000 buy, Burr's campaign confirmed. Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d308a721e1210f61a7978459c1f19209be6ccf8ab134e8663d

- RERUN - Some of Burr's b-roll might look familiar to eagle-eyed North Carolina campaign watchers. Several of the clips in Burr's 2016 ad were also used in his 2010 campaign ad. "As Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator Burr has a very limited amount of time and needs to remain focused on protecting our country from terrorism. That is why we used footage from 2010," said Alex Johnson, spokesman for the Burr campaign. Watch the 2010 ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d3fe79a5e9098285b8dde461d64b91f6e704433c2153811cb0

MORE NORTH CAROLINA REDISTRICTING DRAMA - The plaintiffs who sued for a new North Carolina congressional maps filed a motion with a federal district court today, saying they have "deep concerns" about the replacement congressional map passed last week by Republican state legislators. The "preliminary analysis of the plan suggests that it is no more appropriate than the version struck down by the Court," the motion reads.

- DEAD HEAT IN GOVERNOR'S RACE - Democrat Roy Cooper and Gov. Pat McCrory are still locked in a tight race for the North Carolina governor's mansion, according to a new Elon University poll. Cooper picked up 42 percent of the likely voters surveyed, while McCrory got 40 percent. Another 16 percent are still undecided, while 3 percent listed neither or someone else. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d3894f9936e6c1734c9dbea6cadec5630d29f1af872666307b

BREAKING RANKS - "Sen. Kirk: Obama should nominate Supreme Court replacement," by POLITICO's Nick Gass: "Republican Sen. Mark Kirk broke with Senate leadership and his party's presidential candidates on Monday, announcing that President Barack Obama should nominate a qualified successor to fill the Supreme Court vacancy. ...The announcement signifies a departure from the path set forth by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who within hours of Justice Antonin Scalia's death on Feb. 13, declared that the Senate would not consider any presidential nominees until after the November election." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d3c8322c9e5b437161e857231d6773a5fdfb0fe251f7f555f6

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PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "The Nevada wild card," by POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger in Las Vegas: "...Variables that will crystallize the state of the race heading into next week's Super Tuesday contests - the size of Trump's expected win and the race for second place between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz - remain wild cards here as Republicans head out to caucus on Tuesday. Nevada's caucus electorate is tiny: Campaigns are expecting a turnout of roughly 40,000 - less than a quarter of Iowa's turnout in a state of about the same size. Its transient population is difficult to track, a problem compounded by the lack of any complete statewide list of 2012 caucus-goers. And its limited track record of
caucuses - they began in 2008 - provides little in the way of historical benchmarks." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d33dbd8a0db8692fdfdbfa0252fc3b320d24cfbbd6750f1e08

- "GOP to Kasich: Get out," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney in Fairfax, Va.: "The Republican establishment has a message for John Kasich: Get out, and get out of Marco Rubio's way. A string of elected officials, GOP insiders and prominent donors officially threw their support behind Rubio on Monday, calling him their last chance to take down Donald Trump. Their statements had another common theme. Some explicitly called for Kasich to quit, while others sent the same message by saying the Ohio governor's ongoing presence is holding Rubio back." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d3e0fb72e9e328fdd54e30f54e3778b4ac7b3b48bad6618d4f

- "Sheldon Adelson and the missing $100 million," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Isaac Arnsdorf: "It's one of the biggest mysteries in Republican circles: Why has Sheldon Adelson \u2015 who spent upwards of $100 million during the last presidential campaign \u2015 suddenly stopped pouring huge sums of money into politics? The conventional wisdom \u2015 that he's planning to spend millions of dollars to support Marco Rubio, but is waiting to see how he fares in a few more primaries \u2015 does not explain the severity of Adelson's political spending freeze, which is further-reaching than previously known. ... [But] Time is running short, they say, for major donors to fund an assault to try to slow the
momentum of GOP front-runner Donald Trump. ... 'I don't see any involvement until there is a nominee,' the adviser told POLITICO." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d378d8211f0276d57604af73d93128a740654974ceff03dd26

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "'They needed a scapegoat,' said one unaligned GOP strategist," of Rick Tyler's firing from the Cruz campaign, POLITICO reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49db72837c6b25d3b68277a8dbc06f62ed8a804ae6b78c8d7594e15b0c6b8f42

** A message from Katz Radio Group: Are You Being Heard?

An In-Time Insight brought to you by Stacey Schulman, EVP Strategy, Analytics & Research for Katz Radio Group

Super Tuesday is right around the corner, and a full third of Opportunity Voters in Colorado, Texas and Virginia spend more time with Radio daily, making them twice as likely to HEAR your ad on Radio than SEE it on TV. How do we know that?

Katz Radio Group is developing In-Time Insights during the Primary Season with its "The Local Vote 2016" research initiative. Katz commissioned Nielsen to survey a representative sample of registered voters across 10 states in the weeks leading up to the Presidential primaries. Voter sentiments are then linked back to these respondents' local Scarborough data, demographic profiles and media consumption patterns.

In our first wave of data we learned that between 31 and 33% of voters in Colorado, Texas and Virginia have yet to decide on a candidate (undecided) or are not sure if they are voting (turnout targets). Together, we're calling these folks "The Opportunity Vote".
Want to know more?: Stacey.Schulman@katzmediagroup.com **

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