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[image: In this newsletter: Dodd-Frank One Year
LaterFinancial Shorts: International Capital Requirements; SEC and Proxy
RulesPolitical Shorts: Debt-Ceiling Speeches; Republican Primary Changes]


*Washington Update– July 28, 2011*
[image: In this newsletter: Dodd-Frank One Year LaterFinancial Shorts:
International Capital Requirements; SEC and Proxy RulesPolitical Shorts:
Debt-Ceiling Speeches; Republican Primary Changes] [image: In this
newsletter: Dodd-Frank One Year LaterFinancial Shorts: International Capital
Requirements; SEC and Proxy RulesPolitical Shorts: Debt-Ceiling Speeches;
Republican Primary Changes] [image: 1. Dodd-Frank One Year LaterThe
Dodd-Frank Act turned a year old last week, a milestone that was supposed to
be Day One of many new rules for Wall Street. Instead, the financial
regulatory overhaul is seriously behind schedule and facing signs that the
tightened regulatory measures could still be undone.According to a new
report by the law firm Davis Polk, this month the Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) and several other financial regulators missed some 100
rule-writing deadlines. While the agencies were supposed to complete roughly
160 regulations by now, 80 percent of them remain unfinished. Over all,
nearly 90 percent of all rules are incomplete. Regulators also failed to
complete seven studies, including review of short selling and foreclosures.
The SEC, which has the largest responsibility under Dodd-Frank, alone, has
missed 54 deadlines. The remaining delays are largely expected, as
regulators scramble to finalize new rules on shoestring budgets. The
Government Accountability Office estimated that it will cost regulators
$1.25 billion to enforce the law over the next two years.But as regulators
face a budget crunch amid the broadening mandates, Republican lawmakers are
threatening to cut regulatory spending even further. In June, a House
committee approved a plan to keep the SEC’s budget flat, and some lawmakers
are calling for outright cuts. Furthermore, there are currently two dozen
bills in Congress seeking to dismantle parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, and
Senate Republicans are refusing to consider nominations for posts at several
financial regulatory agencies, including President Obama’s recent pick for
the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Richard Cordray. A group of 44
Republican senators vowed they would not let any nomination come to a floor
vote unless significant changes were made in the structure, power and scope
of the new consumer agency. Critics note that uncertainty among companies
about the rules ahead is keeping a lot of capital on the sidelines. Several
crucial financial issues remain to be resolved, including what is known as
the Volcker Rule, a ban on banks trading for their own accounts. Rules
governing the trading and processing of derivatives, the complex financial
instruments that contributed to the difficulties of several banking and
insurance companies, have yet to be completed. Bankers say they remain
worried about whether tightened standards in this country will put them at a
disadvantage as they try to expand overseas. Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Ben Bernanke shared a similar concern, saying that “unless we have
international consistency, we will not have a level playing field, we’ll
have opportunities for regulatory arbitrage and the entire reform process
will not be effective.” Since Dodd-Frank was signed into law last year, the
unemployment rate has remained high. But there are some other indications
that investors, at least, have not been bothered by uncertainty or
regulation. The Dow Jones industrial average is up more than 20 percent from
a year ago, even after declining in the last few days. Indexes of
small-company stocks are up more than 30 percent from last year at this
time, and the market for initial public stock offerings, particularly for
technology stocks, has been strong. But there remain signs that the
tightened regulatory measures could still be undone, creating uncertainty
about whether the actions that have helped to stabilize Wall Street will be
in place when the next crisis hits. 2. Financial ShortsInternational Capital
RequirementsThe Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial
Stability Board released proposals announcing that 28 of the world’s biggest
and most interconnected banks would be required to hold more capital in
reserve than less important banks. Regulators did not identify the 28
systemically important financial institutions, saying that the list could
change if the proposals were modified or banks reorganized. The new rules
would also establish procedures for closing a sick bank without infecting
others. The 28 banks would be required to hold extra capital equal to as
much as 2.5 percent of their assets, in addition to the 7 percent that would
be required of all banks under the new rules, known as Basel III.These
proposals are intended to keep the failure of one or two large institutions
from causing a calamity. Formulating a solution for how to deal with banks
that are too big to fail and that would require a taxpayer bailout in an
emergency has been the main unfinished business for regulators trying to
limit the damage from another banking crisis. The proposals have been
endorsed by central bankers and regulators from around the world who oversee
the two panels. After banks comment on the rules, they will be considered by
the Group of 20 nations at its meeting in Cannes, France, in November. The
rules would not take full effect until the start of 2019, but institutions
affected are likely to face market pressure to raise reserves earlier.SEC
and Proxy RulesA federal appeals court panel delivered a sharp rebuke to the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by throwing out its recently
approved regulation that would have made it easier for shareholders to oust
corporate directors. The panel rebuked the SEC for its failure to satisfy
the provisions of the Administrative Procedure Act, which requires
cost-benefit studies to justify a new government regulation, in its adoption
of the proposal.The SEC regulation would have required companies to include
in their proxy materials information about shareholder-nominated candidates
for election to a corporate board of directors. Under the rule, groups that
owned at least 3 percent of the voting power of a company’s stock for at
least three years could nominate candidates for a corporate board and have
them included in the company’s proxy materials, mailed to shareholders at
the company’s expense. Currently, outside groups mounting a proxy contest to
elect board candidates must pay for their distribution of materials.Past
efforts by the SEC to guarantee shareholders access to company proxy
statements have been challenged over whether the agency had the authority or
whether it was primarily a matter of state law. But the Dodd-Frank Act gave
the SEC explicit authority to write new proxy access rules. A second SEC
regulation, which allows shareholders to submit proposals for proxy access
at their companies, adopted at the same time, is unaffected by the court’s
decision.3. Political ShortsDueling Debt-Ceiling SpeechesDuring prime time
speeches on Monday night, both the President and House Speaker John Boehner
phrased their words in the language of compromise and reassurance. But at
the start of a critical week of legislative maneuvering, each delivered a
partisan message that cast blame on the other for a breakdown that threatens
the nation’s credit rating, its financial markets and the fragile economy.
By the time they finished, it was clear why Republicans and Democrats are no
closer to agreement.White House officials saw President Obama’s speech as an
opportunity to frame the debate on plans offered by House Speaker Boehner
and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to raise the federal debt ceiling, and
to drive home to a larger audience the consequences of a failure to meet
next Tuesday’s deadline and the importance of compromise. From their vantage
point, the President continues to hold the high ground in public opinion.
Many more Americans support an agreement that includes spending cuts and
some new taxes to one that cuts only spending. Monday’s speech was a way to
reinforce that message and to bring new pressure on Congress to find a
compromise.No one is quite certain how the next few days will play out, even
though time is running short. For now, both Boehner and Reid will attempt to
test their strength in their respective chambers. Boehner has seen some
rebellion among his most conservative members, a sign of the hold the Tea
Party movement continues to have on his party. That still is the biggest
obstacle he must overcome. The dueling speeches probably did little to sway
votes on Capitol Hill. Instead, the President and Speaker used their
respective platforms to try to shape public opinion and, to bring pressure
on lawmakers to make the kind of deal they each support.Republican Primary
ChangesThe 2012 presidential race is the first to fall under new rules from
the Republican National Committee, which had intended the contests to start
in February, a month later than in 2008. But at least half dozen states are
threatening to defy the rules and move up their primaries. The result is
that the first ballots are once again likely to be cast in January as Iowa,
New Hampshire and South Carolina move up the dates of their contests to
protect their franchises as the early voting states. At the same time, the
rush toward the front of the calendar by Florida, Michigan, Arizona,
Colorado, Georgia and Missouri is accompanied by another trend: several
states are pushing back their presidential primaries — or canceling them
entirely — because of tight state budgets. The outcome is a sharply
scaled-back set of contests in the weeks after the initial flurry — with
Super Tuesday in particular diminished in importance — followed by a stretch
of primaries lasting until summer.For all of the precision that presidential
campaigns require, the process of selecting a nominee is dictated by a
haphazard set of rules that vary by state. Some states conduct closed
primaries (registered Republicans only), and others have open primaries
(independents and Democrats can vote, too). Under Republican Party rules,
states are stripped of half their delegates to the nominating convention if
they jump ahead of the proposed guidelines, while states that adhere to them
get additional delegates.Another dynamic in the calendar fight has made this
round of behind-the-scenes competition among states even more chaotic.
Republicans have long operated under a winner-takes-all system. This time,
most Republican delegates will be awarded proportionally for all primaries
and caucuses taking place before April 1, which means finishing second can
be nearly as fruitful as winning. If the campaign narrows to a head-to-head
match between two candidates next year, it has the potential to become a
Republican version of the extended 2008 Democratic delegate fight between
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton that was not resolved until all
states had voted.] [image: 1. Dodd-Frank One Year LaterThe Dodd-Frank
Act turned a year old last week, a milestone that was supposed to be Day One
of many new rules for Wall Street. Instead, the financial regulatory
overhaul is seriously behind schedule and facing signs that the tightened
regulatory measures could still be undone.According to a new report by the
law firm Davis Polk, this month the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
and several other financial regulators missed some 100 rule-writing
deadlines. While the agencies were supposed to complete roughly 160
regulations by now, 80 percent of them remain unfinished. Over all, nearly
90 percent of all rules are incomplete. Regulators also failed to complete
seven studies, including review of short selling and foreclosures. The SEC,
which has the largest responsibility under Dodd-Frank, alone, has missed 54
deadlines. The remaining delays are largely expected, as regulators scramble
to finalize new rules on shoestring budgets. The Government Accountability
Office estimated that it will cost regulators $1.25 billion to enforce the
law over the next two years.But as regulators face a budget crunch amid the
broadening mandates, Republican lawmakers are threatening to cut regulatory
spending even further. In June, a House committee approved a plan to keep
the SEC’s budget flat, and some lawmakers are calling for outright cuts.
Furthermore, there are currently two dozen bills in Congress seeking to
dismantle parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, and Senate Republicans are refusing
to consider nominations for posts at several financial regulatory agencies,
including President Obama’s recent pick for the new Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau, Richard Cordray. A group of 44 Republican senators vowed
they would not let any nomination come to a floor vote unless significant
changes were made in the structure, power and scope of the new consumer
agency. Critics note that uncertainty among companies about the rules ahead
is keeping a lot of capital on the sidelines. Several crucial financial
issues remain to be resolved, including what is known as the Volcker Rule, a
ban on banks trading for their own accounts. Rules governing the trading and
processing of derivatives, the complex financial instruments that
contributed to the difficulties of several banking and insurance companies,
have yet to be completed. Bankers say they remain worried about whether
tightened standards in this country will put them at a disadvantage as they
try to expand overseas. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke shared
a similar concern, saying that “unless we have international consistency, we
will not have a level playing field, we’ll have opportunities for regulatory
arbitrage and the entire reform process will not be effective.” Since
Dodd-Frank was signed into law last year, the unemployment rate has remained
high. But there are some other indications that investors, at least, have
not been bothered by uncertainty or regulation. The Dow Jones industrial
average is up more than 20 percent from a year ago, even after declining in
the last few days. Indexes of small-company stocks are up more than 30
percent from last year at this time, and the market for initial public stock
offerings, particularly for technology stocks, has been strong. But there
remain signs that the tightened regulatory measures could still be undone,
creating uncertainty about whether the actions that have helped to stabilize
Wall Street will be in place when the next crisis hits. 2. Financial
ShortsInternational Capital RequirementsThe Basel Committee on Banking
Supervision and the Financial Stability Board released proposals announcing
that 28 of the world’s biggest and most interconnected banks would be
required to hold more capital in reserve than less important banks.
Regulators did not identify the 28 systemically important financial
institutions, saying that the list could change if the proposals were
modified or banks reorganized. The new rules would also establish procedures
for closing a sick bank without infecting others. The 28 banks would be
required to hold extra capital equal to as much as 2.5 percent of their
assets, in addition to the 7 percent that would be required of all banks
under the new rules, known as Basel III.These proposals are intended to keep
the failure of one or two large institutions from causing a calamity.
Formulating a solution for how to deal with banks that are too big to fail
and that would require a taxpayer bailout in an emergency has been the main
unfinished business for regulators trying to limit the damage from another
banking crisis. The proposals have been endorsed by central bankers and
regulators from around the world who oversee the two panels. After banks
comment on the rules, they will be considered by the Group of 20 nations at
its meeting in Cannes, France, in November. The rules would not take full
effect until the start of 2019, but institutions affected are likely to face
market pressure to raise reserves earlier.SEC and Proxy RulesA federal
appeals court panel delivered a sharp rebuke to the Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) by throwing out its recently approved regulation that would
have made it easier for shareholders to oust corporate directors. The panel
rebuked the SEC for its failure to satisfy the provisions of the
Administrative Procedure Act, which requires cost-benefit studies to justify
a new government regulation, in its adoption of the proposal.The SEC
regulation would have required companies to include in their proxy materials
information about shareholder-nominated candidates for election to a
corporate board of directors. Under the rule, groups that owned at least 3
percent of the voting power of a company’s stock for at least three years
could nominate candidates for a corporate board and have them included in
the company’s proxy materials, mailed to shareholders at the company’s
expense. Currently, outside groups mounting a proxy contest to elect board
candidates must pay for their distribution of materials.Past efforts by the
SEC to guarantee shareholders access to company proxy statements have been
challenged over whether the agency had the authority or whether it was
primarily a matter of state law. But the Dodd-Frank Act gave the SEC
explicit authority to write new proxy access rules. A second SEC regulation,
which allows shareholders to submit proposals for proxy access at their
companies, adopted at the same time, is unaffected by the court’s
decision.3. Political ShortsDueling Debt-Ceiling SpeechesDuring prime time
speeches on Monday night, both the President and House Speaker John Boehner
phrased their words in the language of compromise and reassurance. But at
the start of a critical week of legislative maneuvering, each delivered a
partisan message that cast blame on the other for a breakdown that threatens
the nation’s credit rating, its financial markets and the fragile economy.
By the time they finished, it was clear why Republicans and Democrats are no
closer to agreement.White House officials saw President Obama’s speech as an
opportunity to frame the debate on plans offered by House Speaker Boehner
and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to raise the federal debt ceiling, and
to drive home to a larger audience the consequences of a failure to meet
next Tuesday’s deadline and the importance of compromise. From their vantage
point, the President continues to hold the high ground in public opinion.
Many more Americans support an agreement that includes spending cuts and
some new taxes to one that cuts only spending. Monday’s speech was a way to
reinforce that message and to bring new pressure on Congress to find a
compromise.No one is quite certain how the next few days will play out, even
though time is running short. For now, both Boehner and Reid will attempt to
test their strength in their respective chambers. Boehner has seen some
rebellion among his most conservative members, a sign of the hold the Tea
Party movement continues to have on his party. That still is the biggest
obstacle he must overcome. The dueling speeches probably did little to sway
votes on Capitol Hill. Instead, the President and Speaker used their
respective platforms to try to shape public opinion and, to bring pressure
on lawmakers to make the kind of deal they each support.Republican Primary
ChangesThe 2012 presidential race is the first to fall under new rules from
the Republican National Committee, which had intended the contests to start
in February, a month later than in 2008. But at least half dozen states are
threatening to defy the rules and move up their primaries. The result is
that the first ballots are once again likely to be cast in January as Iowa,
New Hampshire and South Carolina move up the dates of their contests to
protect their franchises as the early voting states. At the same time, the
rush toward the front of the calendar by Florida, Michigan, Arizona,
Colorado, Georgia and Missouri is accompanied by another trend: several
states are pushing back their presidential primaries — or canceling them
entirely — because of tight state budgets. The outcome is a sharply
scaled-back set of contests in the weeks after the initial flurry — with
Super Tuesday in particular diminished in importance — followed by a stretch
of primaries lasting until summer.For all of the precision that presidential
campaigns require, the process of selecting a nominee is dictated by a
haphazard set of rules that vary by state. Some states conduct closed
primaries (registered Republicans only), and others have open primaries
(independents and Democrats can vote, too). Under Republican Party rules,
states are stripped of half their delegates to the nominating convention if
they jump ahead of the proposed guidelines, while states that adhere to them
get additional delegates.Another dynamic in the calendar fight has made this
round of behind-the-scenes competition among states even more chaotic.
Republicans have long operated under a winner-takes-all system. This time,
most Republican delegates will be awarded proportionally for all primaries
and caucuses taking place before April 1, which means finishing second can
be nearly as fruitful as winning. If the campaign narrows to a head-to-head
match between two candidates next year, it has the potential to become a
Republican version of the extended 2008 Democratic delegate fight between
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton that was not resolved until all
states had voted.] [image: 1. Dodd-Frank One Year LaterThe Dodd-Frank
Act turned a year old last week, a milestone that was supposed to be Day One
of many new rules for Wall Street. Instead, the financial regulatory
overhaul is seriously behind schedule and facing signs that the tightened
regulatory measures could still be undone.According to a new report by the
law firm Davis Polk, this month the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
and several other financial regulators missed some 100 rule-writing
deadlines. While the agencies were supposed to complete roughly 160
regulations by now, 80 percent of them remain unfinished. Over all, nearly
90 percent of all rules are incomplete. Regulators also failed to complete
seven studies, including review of short selling and foreclosures. The SEC,
which has the largest responsibility under Dodd-Frank, alone, has missed 54
deadlines. The remaining delays are largely expected, as regulators scramble
to finalize new rules on shoestring budgets. The Government Accountability
Office estimated that it will cost regulators $1.25 billion to enforce the
law over the next two years.But as regulators face a budget crunch amid the
broadening mandates, Republican lawmakers are threatening to cut regulatory
spending even further. In June, a House committee approved a plan to keep
the SEC’s budget flat, and some lawmakers are calling for outright cuts.
Furthermore, there are currently two dozen bills in Congress seeking to
dismantle parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, and Senate Republicans are refusing
to consider nominations for posts at several financial regulatory agencies,
including President Obama’s recent pick for the new Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau, Richard Cordray. A group of 44 Republican senators vowed
they would not let any nomination come to a floor vote unless significant
changes were made in the structure, power and scope of the new consumer
agency. Critics note that uncertainty among companies about the rules ahead
is keeping a lot of capital on the sidelines. Several crucial financial
issues remain to be resolved, including what is known as the Volcker Rule, a
ban on banks trading for their own accounts. Rules governing the trading and
processing of derivatives, the complex financial instruments that
contributed to the difficulties of several banking and insurance companies,
have yet to be completed. Bankers say they remain worried about whether
tightened standards in this country will put them at a disadvantage as they
try to expand overseas. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke shared
a similar concern, saying that “unless we have international consistency, we
will not have a level playing field, we’ll have opportunities for regulatory
arbitrage and the entire reform process will not be effective.” Since
Dodd-Frank was signed into law last year, the unemployment rate has remained
high. But there are some other indications that investors, at least, have
not been bothered by uncertainty or regulation. The Dow Jones industrial
average is up more than 20 percent from a year ago, even after declining in
the last few days. Indexes of small-company stocks are up more than 30
percent from last year at this time, and the market for initial public stock
offerings, particularly for technology stocks, has been strong. But there
remain signs that the tightened regulatory measures could still be undone,
creating uncertainty about whether the actions that have helped to stabilize
Wall Street will be in place when the next crisis hits. 2. Financial
ShortsInternational Capital RequirementsThe Basel Committee on Banking
Supervision and the Financial Stability Board released proposals announcing
that 28 of the world’s biggest and most interconnected banks would be
required to hold more capital in reserve than less important banks.
Regulators did not identify the 28 systemically important financial
institutions, saying that the list could change if the proposals were
modified or banks reorganized. The new rules would also establish procedures
for closing a sick bank without infecting others. The 28 banks would be
required to hold extra capital equal to as much as 2.5 percent of their
assets, in addition to the 7 percent that would be required of all banks
under the new rules, known as Basel III.These proposals are intended to keep
the failure of one or two large institutions from causing a calamity.
Formulating a solution for how to deal with banks that are too big to fail
and that would require a taxpayer bailout in an emergency has been the main
unfinished business for regulators trying to limit the damage from another
banking crisis. The proposals have been endorsed by central bankers and
regulators from around the world who oversee the two panels. After banks
comment on the rules, they will be considered by the Group of 20 nations at
its meeting in Cannes, France, in November. The rules would not take full
effect until the start of 2019, but institutions affected are likely to face
market pressure to raise reserves earlier.SEC and Proxy RulesA federal
appeals court panel delivered a sharp rebuke to the Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) by throwing out its recently approved regulation that would
have made it easier for shareholders to oust corporate directors. The panel
rebuked the SEC for its failure to satisfy the provisions of the
Administrative Procedure Act, which requires cost-benefit studies to justify
a new government regulation, in its adoption of the proposal.The SEC
regulation would have required companies to include in their proxy materials
information about shareholder-nominated candidates for election to a
corporate board of directors. Under the rule, groups that owned at least 3
percent of the voting power of a company’s stock for at least three years
could nominate candidates for a corporate board and have them included in
the company’s proxy materials, mailed to shareholders at the company’s
expense. Currently, outside groups mounting a proxy contest to elect board
candidates must pay for their distribution of materials.Past efforts by the
SEC to guarantee shareholders access to company proxy statements have been
challenged over whether the agency had the authority or whether it was
primarily a matter of state law. But the Dodd-Frank Act gave the SEC
explicit authority to write new proxy access rules. A second SEC regulation,
which allows shareholders to submit proposals for proxy access at their
companies, adopted at the same time, is unaffected by the court’s
decision.3. Political ShortsDueling Debt-Ceiling SpeechesDuring prime time
speeches on Monday night, both the President and House Speaker John Boehner
phrased their words in the language of compromise and reassurance. But at
the start of a critical week of legislative maneuvering, each delivered a
partisan message that cast blame on the other for a breakdown that threatens
the nation’s credit rating, its financial markets and the fragile economy.
By the time they finished, it was clear why Republicans and Democrats are no
closer to agreement.White House officials saw President Obama’s speech as an
opportunity to frame the debate on plans offered by House Speaker Boehner
and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to raise the federal debt ceiling, and
to drive home to a larger audience the consequences of a failure to meet
next Tuesday’s deadline and the importance of compromise. From their vantage
point, the President continues to hold the high ground in public opinion.
Many more Americans support an agreement that includes spending cuts and
some new taxes to one that cuts only spending. Monday’s speech was a way to
reinforce that message and to bring new pressure on Congress to find a
compromise.No one is quite certain how the next few days will play out, even
though time is running short. For now, both Boehner and Reid will attempt to
test their strength in their respective chambers. Boehner has seen some
rebellion among his most conservative members, a sign of the hold the Tea
Party movement continues to have on his party. That still is the biggest
obstacle he must overcome. The dueling speeches probably did little to sway
votes on Capitol Hill. Instead, the President and Speaker used their
respective platforms to try to shape public opinion and, to bring pressure
on lawmakers to make the kind of deal they each support.Republican Primary
ChangesThe 2012 presidential race is the first to fall under new rules from
the Republican National Committee, which had intended the contests to start
in February, a month later than in 2008. But at least half dozen states are
threatening to defy the rules and move up their primaries. The result is
that the first ballots are once again likely to be cast in January as Iowa,
New Hampshire and South Carolina move up the dates of their contests to
protect their franchises as the early voting states. At the same time, the
rush toward the front of the calendar by Florida, Michigan, Arizona,
Colorado, Georgia and Missouri is accompanied by another trend: several
states are pushing back their presidential primaries — or canceling them
entirely — because of tight state budgets. The outcome is a sharply
scaled-back set of contests in the weeks after the initial flurry — with
Super Tuesday in particular diminished in importance — followed by a stretch
of primaries lasting until summer.For all of the precision that presidential
campaigns require, the process of selecting a nominee is dictated by a
haphazard set of rules that vary by state. Some states conduct closed
primaries (registered Republicans only), and others have open primaries
(independents and Democrats can vote, too). Under Republican Party rules,
states are stripped of half their delegates to the nominating convention if
they jump ahead of the proposed guidelines, while states that adhere to them
get additional delegates.Another dynamic in the calendar fight has made this
round of behind-the-scenes competition among states even more chaotic.
Republicans have long operated under a winner-takes-all system. This time,
most Republican delegates will be awarded proportionally for all primaries
and caucuses taking place before April 1, which means finishing second can
be nearly as fruitful as winning. If the campaign narrows to a head-to-head
match between two candidates next year, it has the potential to become a
Republican version of the extended 2008 Democratic delegate fight between
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton that was not resolved until all
states had voted.