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By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman and Eli Okun

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BRETT KAVANAUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE HEADED TO THE SENATE FLOOR ...

SEN. JEFF FLAKE (R-ARIZ.) announced this morning that he would support Kavanaugh's nomination. The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote at 1:30 p.m. Several Democrats walked out of the committee room during CHAIRMAN CHUCK GRASSLEY'S (R-IOWA) opening statement.

-- FLAKE'S STATEMENT: "I wish that I could express the confidence that some of my colleagues have conveyed about what either did or did not happen in the early 1980s, but I left the hearing yesterday with as much doubt as certainty. What I do know is that our system of justice affords a presumption of innocence to the accused, absent corroborating evidence. That is what binds us to the rule of law."

FLAKE was confronted in an elevator by a woman who said she was sexually assaulted. The video

WHAT EVERYONE IS WATCHING: FLAKE declined to speak, and then went into a side room with DELAWARE DEMOCRATIC SEN. CHRIS COONS and MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR. SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-CALIF.), ranking member of the committee, later joined Flake and Coons, CNN's Manu Raju tweeted.

THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN seemed visibly upset during the duration of the hearing today, after his interaction with the woman in the elevator. It is unclear if Flake will come back and speak before the committee vote.

WHIP SHEET ...

-- FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE AT HOME ... If Flake's yes vote holds, Kavanaugh now needs the vote of one of the following for his nomination to go through: Collins, SEN. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-ALASKA), SEN. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.VA.) or SEN. HEIDI HEITKAMP (D-N.D.).

-- BLOOMBERG'S SAHIL KAPUR spoke to SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-MAINE): "SUSAN COLLINS just told me she hasn't made up her mind yet on Brett Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. She declined to comment on the hearing yesterday."

-- THE GUARDIAN'S SABRINA SIDDIQUI (@SabrinaSiddiqui): "Speaking to press in West Virginia, Joe Manchin says he is still undecided on Kavanaugh, per @Bencjacobs."

FORUM NEWS SERVICE'S JOHN HAGEMAN (@jhageman_): "Just off the phone with Sen. Heitkamp, who remains undecided on Kavanaugh. She's still dissecting the hearing from yesterday and expressed disappointment there wasn't an FBI investigation into sexual assault claims."

-- DEMOCRATIC SENS. JOE DONNELLY (IND.) and JON TESTER (MONT.) will vote against Kavanaugh. Donnelly's statement: "I have deep reservations about Judge Kavanaugh's nomination to this lifetime position and, as I stated, we have been unable to get all the information necessary regarding this nomination, despite my best efforts."

KEY MOMENTS IN THE COMMITTEE HEARING ...

-- SEN. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-CONN.) made a motion to subpoena Mark Judge. It was defeated along party lines.

-- SENS. KAMALA HARRIS (D-CALIF.) and CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.) both declined to vote to proceed to committee business. Several Democrats went outside to hold a news conference.

-- SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.): "Joe [Biden] was right a lot ... He's a decent guy. If he runs for president he'll be hard to beat. .. I just like the old guy." On Kavanaugh: "Would you have picked him? No. But you lost the election. And that has consequences." On identity politics: "I know I'm a single, white man from South Carolina and I've been told to shut up, but I will not shut up, if that's OK."

Happy Friday afternoon. SPOTTED: Donald Trump Jr. and Tucker Carlson having dinner last night at BLT Prime at the Trump hotel.

THE POLITICO LEDEALL ... ELANA SCHOR and BURGESS EVERETT: "Kavanaugh closer to Supreme Court with Flake support"

THE NEW YORKER'S RONAN FARROW and JANE MAYER: "Emails Show That Republican Senate Staff Stymied a Kavanaugh Accuser's Effort to Give Testimony": "Throughout Thursday's Senate hearing on Christine Blasey Ford's sexual-misconduct allegation against Brett Kavanaugh, Republicans on the Judiciary Committee claimed that they had tried in vain to secure more information about other accusations made about the judge. ...

"But a fuller copy of the e-mail correspondence between [Deborah] Ramirez's legal team and Republican and Democratic Senate staffers shows that a Republican aide declined to proceed with telephone calls and instead repeatedly demanded that Ramirez produce additional evidence in written form. Only then could any conversation about her testimony proceed. The exchange culminated in a breakdown of communication between the two sides, as Republican and Democratic staffers traded accusations of stonewalling." The New Yorker

ELANA SCHOR: "Dem women raise specter of Anita Hill in symbolic Kavanaugh protest"

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WHAT OBAMA IS UP TO ... AFP/KOLDING, DENMARK: "Obama warns against 'racial,' 'nationalistic' politics": "Former U.S. president Barack Obama warned Friday against rising nationalism as he painted a grim picture of American and global politics on a visit to Denmark. ... He expressed concern over a lack of citizen engagement in public life and underlined the importance in the United States, Europe, and in other countries 'to affirm the ideals of our constitution.'" AFP

AFTERNOON READ ... BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK'S MAX ABELSON and FELIX GILLETTE: "Insider Trading's Odd Couple: The Goldman Banker and the NFL Linebacker"

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... "House intel panel to release transcripts of now-defunct Russia probe," by Kyle Cheney: "The House Intelligence Committee voted Friday to publicly release transcripts of 53 witness interviews - amounting to thousands of pages - in the panel's now-defunct Russia investigation.

"The measure passed unanimously, though not until Republicans swatted down efforts by Democrats to release a handful of additional transcripts - including those of Reps. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.)." POLITICO

-- "Big donor to Trump campaign made overture to top Russian official, boasting of connections," by NBC's Richard Engel, Kate Benyon-Tinker, Charlotte Gardiner and Kennett Werner: "A Russian-born American businessman who gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to support Donald Trump's run for president in 2016 offered to brief a high-ranking Russian official during the final months of the campaign, according to a series of emails reviewed by NBC News.

"The businessman, Simon Kukes, a Houston-based oil executive, sent an email to the official in Moscow in July 2016, boasting of his connections to the Trump campaign." NBC

THE LATEST ON ROSENSTEIN -- KYLE CHENEY, "Rosenstein agrees to meet with lawmakers over allegations he wanted to secretly record Trump": A "DOJ source said Rosenstein had agreed to the briefing prior to any subpoena threats being leveled by GOP leaders.

"It's unclear, though, whether the interview will be part of a formal House GOP investigation into allegations of misconduct by FBI and Justice Department officials in 2016 and 2017." POLITICO

TRADE WARS -- "Nafta Isn't Dead Yet, Despite Missed Deadline," by WSJ's Jacob M. Schlesinger: "President Trump has concluded that trade talks with Canada have reached an impasse, giving up on the self-imposed Sept. 30 deadline for completing a full rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement. As a result, the administration plans to publish as soon as Friday the draft of a Mexico-only deal that would replace the quarter-century-old trilateral bloc.

"Does that mean the imminent breakup of the continentwide free-trade zone? Probably not, according to people familiar with the process. A more likely result is some fudging of the deadline and procedures, and more talks with Ottawa over the coming weeks, and possibly months. ... The most important factor to watch: whether Congress or the White House loses patience with Canada if talks drag into next year." WSJ

2018 WATCH -- "Murphy spearheads fundraising push to elect pro-gun control Democrats," by Isaac Dovere: "Chris Murphy is out to fight the gun lobby with a money bomb. And he's lining up some of the biggest names in Democratic politics to try to make the impact as big as possible. ...

"Murphy is calling his effort NR8, identifying seven Democrats running for House seats and Jacky Rosen ... The goal is to raise $1 million in one day, scheduled for next Friday, Oct. 5, then split the cash between the candidates. It won't be a PAC-just a pass-through for the money, and a combined list won't be assembled for any future use." POLITICO

WAR REPORT -- "Trump Administration Split Over Response to Deaths of Yemeni Children," by WSJ's Dion Nissenbaum: "Competing factions within the administration are at odds over the best way to prevent more of the errant airstrikes by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that have killed thousands of civilians in Yemen. ...

"[S]ome officials at the State Department have urged the administration to scale back its military support. Meanwhile, others at the White House National Security Council want to see the U.S. provide more intelligence and advice when the Saudi-led coalition is carrying out risky strikes ... There is widespread agreement in the Trump administration that the coalition needs to do more to halt the civilian deaths." WSJ

MEGATRENDS -- "Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100," by WaPo's Juliet Eilperin, Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney: "Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the Trump administration made a startling assumption: On its current course, the planet will warm a disastrous 7 degrees by the end of this century.

"A rise of 7 degrees Fahrenheit ... would be catastrophic, according to scientists. Many coral reefs would dissolve in increasingly acidic oceans. Parts of Manhattan and Miami would be underwater without costly coastal defenses. Extreme heat waves would routinely smother large parts of the globe. But the administration did not offer this dire forecast ... as part of an argument to combat climate change. Just the opposite: The analysis assumes the planet's fate is already sealed." WaPo

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Fight over fetal tissue splits HHS, anti-abortion allies," by Dan Diamond: "Anti-abortion groups - normally staunch allies of the Trump administration - have turned their fire on the health department, accusing the agency of being complicit in abortions by refusing to end research projects using fetal tissue. ... Conservative lawmakers supporting that demand privately warned officials earlier this month that the agency's FY 2019 funding bill could stall without concessions." POLITICO

UP NEXT ... "Government may gain new power to track, shoot down drones," by AP's David Koenig: "An aviation bill Congress is rushing to approve contains a little-noticed section that would give authorities the power to track, intercept and destroy drones they consider a security threat, without needing a judge's approval.

"Supporters say law enforcement needs this power to protect Americans from terrorists who are learning how to use drones as deadly weapons. ... Critics say the provision would give the government unchecked power to decide when drones are a threat." AP

K STREET FILES -- "Cryptocurrency Coalition to Pay DC Lobbyists in Digital Coins," by Bloomberg's Robert Schmidt: "A group of financial technology companies is banding together to lobby lawmakers and regulators on cryptocurrencies -- and they plan to pay their Washington advocates partly in digital coins. The firms, all based in the San Francisco area, include digital money transfer company Ripple and several startups. ... [T]hey've started a coalition and are retaining the Klein/Johnson Group." Bloomberg

TV TONIGHT ... Bob Costa sits down with WaPo's Seung Min Kim, NYT's Mark Landler, NBC's Geoff Bennett and Time's Molly Ball on PBS' "Washington Week" at 8 p.m.

TRANSITIONS -- Mary Christina Riley is now special adviser for legislation and outreach in the Office of Legislation and Congressional Affairs at the Department of Education. She previously was senior legislative assistant for Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.). ... Matt Simeon will be senior adviser to the CEO/executive director at the National Governors Association. He was most recently VP for advocacy communications at the National Restaurant Association.

ENGAGED -- HILLARY ALUMNI -- Georgette Spanjich, VP at Plurus Strategies and a Hillary 2016 alum, got engaged to Charlie Kerr, an analyst for the U.S. Air Force and a DIA alum. He proposed as the couple celebrated her 30th birthday at the Salamander Resort and Spa last Friday. Pic ... Another pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Casey Douglas, director at APCO Worldwide, and Clay Douglas, an attorney at Eversheds Sutherland, welcomed James Malcolm Douglas. Pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Ryan Moorman of NGP VAN (h/t Kyle Tharp).


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