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10/02/2018 08:00 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

MCCONNELL'S CONFIRMATION STRATEGY -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) plans to move to end debate on Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination by midweek, setting up a procedural vote as early as Friday and a potential floor vote Sunday. "But that timetable means the FBI investigation must be complete by Wednesday, and that's where the situation becomes dicey for McConnell," Bres and Burgess report. McConnell has narrowed his focus to win over at least two of the three Republicans who are on the fence: Sens. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

The FBI has been given a week to conduct its background investigation into sexual misconduct allegations. If the bureau fails to wrap up by tomorrow, though, McConnell and Senate GOP leaders will likely hold off on moving to end debate until an FBI report arrives. "That could delay the confirmation since Democrats are likely to use their procedural leverage to string out any Kavanaugh vote as long as they can," they add. "Senate Republicans believe that if the FBI investigation shows no new information, it will quickly lead to Kavanaugh's confirmation... But they also acknowledge there's some risk in handing off an investigation to the FBI." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3bc9dc1eef501b2cc703d5f9481d178b83096c16f00804c78b57aa6578ca24d2e58af138acd9e71d13d5483ec9e7878a

TRUMP INTERVENES -- President Donald Trump has widened the FBI's probe, giving the bureau the flexibility to interview anyone it deems necessary as long as the investigation concludes this week. "The broadening inquiry produced an unusual spectacle as friends and classmates from Judge Kavanaugh's past provided dueling portraits of the nominee in his younger days -- either a good-natured student incapable of the alleged behavior or a stumbling drunk who could easily have blacked out and forgotten inappropriate behavior at alcohol-soaked parties," The New York Times' Peter Baker and Michael S. Schmidt write.

The FBI has interviewed the four witnesses it was initially asked to question and reached out to others Monday. Senate Democrats sent the FBI a list of witnesses to interview, and Deborah Ramirez, who accuses Kavanaugh of exposing himself to her at a college party, provided the bureau a list of names. "The revised White House instructions amounted to a risky bet that the F.B.I. will not find anything new ... that could change the public view of the allegations," they note. "Republicans have resisted an open-ended investigation that could head in unpredictable directions, and the limited time frame could make it harder for the F.B.I. to resolve the conflicting accounts." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3bc9dc1eef501b2c2f7d74ffb90731d9cabd9e662b0cbb9e0c75e80209328b9566e6e9c0a42af933f138ff38a800958c

Related: "Trump says he's OK with the FBI interviewing Kavanaugh," by Burgess and Elana: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65f0029ec90e1c69db3b7ae19fa1b3f8a5757f4425a8009bc0aa27b63e35b492eb1eeebc6cf08334f6 and "Sen. Collins calls for FBI to investigate 3rd woman's accusation in broader Kavanaugh probe," from the Portland Press Herald's Scott Thistle: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3bc9dc1eef501b2c63fac76dfc3027e5034bc5e3df4bf663756f67fe7bc98353e3a8a31e8d79dd2483ff2a595aa26bdc

AD WARS -- The ACLU is putting more than $1 million into opposing Kavanaugh's confirmation with an ad buy targeting Sens. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). "Until recently, the group has not formally opposed Kavanaugh since his nomination and stopped its ad campaign targeting Murkowski and [Maine Sen. Susan] Collins once he was nominated," Burgess reports. "But the ACLU decided over the weekend to oppose Kavanaugh and launch an advocacy and advertising campaign against the high-court nominee following his testimony last week." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65758f6e51f9f8ccf7b151052929b5d47ac124badb38d0fe24d33d91bf6d4358320dc94747622d4f01

The conservative Judicial Crisis Network, meanwhile, is spending $400,000 to pressure Manchin and Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) into backing Kavanaugh. "The two moderate senators are the only undecided Democrats, and both are up for reelection next month," Burgess adds. Both backed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch last year. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65e370c0e340d0570e34a5748dd7a32dffeb35eb9e3fe309d076a5d5c16486c52b474d7edc36cfae68

Related reads: "'Kavanaugh has lied': Progressives push Dem senators to pursue perjury inquiry," per Elana: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65a611319e8e62b7e5efd331dcccebfe4959e86bba5a4c9ba370c6a7a12ced97bbf327a321b18ea6d7 and "Manchin Faces Heat From Both Sides on Kavanaugh," via National Journal's Zach C. Cohen: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65fa8055bbd76b00ab8ddeed16a2ad12748ef6124eab8bb35d0f07294f40a2b388733a650d1ffb9330

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Oct. 2.

** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: Access to abortion gives us dignity, freedom, hope. When opponents push abortion further out of reach, or criminalize it, they deny our humanity. With heightened threats from every branch of government, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible to everyone, everywhere. **

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The Hill's report on the NRCC canceling $1.2 million in ad buys for Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) was the winner.

President Trump says a red wave is coming on Election Day. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today!

DOUBLE LIFE -- At a private fundraiser last month, Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) joked about mimicking Freedom Caucus founder Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on Fox News and encouraged former White House adviser Sebastian Gorka to get involved in his campaign. "But in TV ads, Brat has touted his work on issues that transcend party lines," Rachael notes. "The two sides of Brat ... highlight the dissonant strategies House Republicans are deploying in their struggle to keep the House. As national Republicans implore endangered members to localize their races and tout bipartisan victories, hard-liners are urging them to embrace the president to get Trump voters to the polls." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65ac4df7cac824660e876ce51b515e74fda20dec3e5a8e3d287090e6a8bbbc4db85e1a1d7eb424385b

DEMS COULD DERAIL NEW NAFTA -- The Trump administration's new NAFTA deal wouldn't be dead on arrival in a Democratic House. But it would certainly face an uphill battle. "A flat-out rejection by either chamber would rob President Donald Trump -- at least for a while -- of what he would like to be a signature trade-policy accomplishment," Megan Cassella reports. "A bevy of factors are affecting lawmakers' thinking about how to vote on NAFTA, most of which have less to do with maintaining good relations with Canada and Mexico and more to do with navigating the politics of the Trump presidency or their own districts' economic needs."

Trump himself admitted he's "not at all confident" Congress will approve the deal. "Anything you submit to Congress is trouble," he said. Democrats could oppose the agreement on procedural grounds if members felt the administration inadequately followed fast-track legislation throughout negotiations or that the administration didn't keep members sufficiently informed. "Some Democrats have complained since talks began last August that they felt as if they had been left out," she points out. But "[n]ot all Democrats have an interest in rejecting NAFTA, and some pro-free-traders will be keen to shepherd an agreement through." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b6521599a4ce2f44ab4a50092dd0f347e6bab64acf402e9744dac9c74e74cd7e4415fc6f7c7477f0fd7

CUMMINGS READY TO PROBE TRUMP -- As it appears increasingly likely that House Democrats will be in the majority next year, Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) is already worried about whether he'll get access to documents from the Trump administration as chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. "Cummings says he doesn't have a lot of patience, and he has even less trust," Edward-Isaac Dovere writes. But the Maryland Democrat says, "If I can get documents, it doesn't matter." That's a big if. As chairman, Cummings would have subpoena power and the ability to call hearings on whatever topics he wants. But norm-shattering Trump will still be president.

Former Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) is skeptical Democrats will get much out of the White House. Democrats, he said, would have been better off joining Republicans in demanding intelligence information the administration was trying to keep secret. "If [North Carolina Rep.] Mark Meadows and [Ohio Rep.] Jim Jordan can't get documents out of the White House, I don't know why Elijah Cummings and the Democrats think they'll do any better," Chaffetz said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65a3e8a7a61f743a2edd0ad9265f94963fa2b3ef0137662f35d4c57402a564a858f472d215625cebe7

BUSTOS VS. CICILLINE -- Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) announced her run for assistant Democratic leader, setting up a race against fellow Democratic Policy and Communications Committee co-chair David Cicilline (D-R.I.). As the No. 4 Democrat, Bustos wrote to colleagues, she would "focus on protecting a new Democratic majority beyond the 2020 cycle so we can deliver bold, forward-thinking and lasting change for the American people." As the only Midwesterner in Democratic leadership, Bustos added that she wants to "make sure the voice of Democrats from the heartland is heard." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b650b6537df9152232e6cc11f3d9acd404e19dbcbe41fe07af3f71a9a8cbc50bb73ddb1c465f27421fc

HUNTER LINKS OPPONENT TO 'RADICAL ISLAMISTS' -- Indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter's (R-Calif.) campaign is suggesting his opponent, Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, is part of an effort by Muslims to "infiltrate" the government. A new campaign ad warns that Campa-Najjar "is working to infiltrate Congress." It invokes "his family's ties to terrorism" and calls the Democrat "a risk we can't ignore." Campa-Najjar's grandfather was involved in the terrorist attacks on the 1972 Munich Olympics. But he has renounced his grandfather, who died 16 years before Campa-Najjar was born. "Campa-Najjar is a Christian who has passed government security clearances," Jeremy B. White reports. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b65619cbe58b8283f585b71102e5a2fc6a9746008b5b8ceb4cd2bdb02da7efd5fbdd1f78b998d3da0a5

BETO APOLOGIZES -- Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas), who is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), apologized for criticizing the Broadway musical "The Will Rogers Follies" as having actresses "whose only qualifications seem to be their phenomenally large breasts and tight buttocks." His critique came in 1991 as a 19-year-old writing a review in Columbia University's student newspaper. "I am ashamed of what I wrote and I apologize," O'Rourke said in a statement to POLITICO. "There is no excuse for making disrespectful and demeaning comments about women." Despite O'Rourke's criticism, the musical eventually won a half-dozen Tony Awards. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=030c1c91a2354b655fdab4266d530f827437a4b6829f02fd43aae3f8460976cfb6c0909b25b46178867302f5955d42eb

BACK IN THE GAME -- Former Rep. Trey Radel (R-Fla.) is launching a political consulting company, Cross Step Media. Radel, a former journalist who studied improv comedy, says he wants "to bring atypical, radically different messaging and branding ideas to politics and public affairs, using humor, emotion, and provocative campaigns."

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The Senate meets at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of the motion to invoke cloture on the motion to concur in the House amendment to the Senate amendment to the FAA reauthorization bill. No votes are scheduled at this time. The House is out.

AROUND THE HILL -- Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) will hold a briefing on evidence-based delivery of alternative treatments for chronic pain at 1 p.m. in 485 Russell.

Senate Republican and Democratic leaders will hold separate news conferences after their weekly policy lunches starting around 2 p.m. in the Ohio Clock Corridor.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- John Sullivan was first to correctly guess that July 4, 1826, is the last time the two longest lived former presidents were both alive. John Adams and Thomas Jefferson both died that day.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- On this day, this former president suffered a near fatal stroke that left him paralyzed on his left side and largely blind. What year was this, who was the president and how much longer did he live before passing away? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: A recent report by nonpartisan medical experts concludes that abortion is safe and effective health care. The report makes clear that quality abortion care is threatened by medically unnecessary regulations that target abortion providers, limited training opportunities, and a lack of public funding. These restrictions punish women and undermine care.

Now more than ever, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible without shame, stigma or barriers.

Learn more and join the fight at www.liesintolaws.org/abortion **

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