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By James Arkin | 09/28/2018 10:00 AM EDT


The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today.

ALL EYES ON THE MODERATES - The Senate Judiciary hearing featuring testimony from Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused him of sexual assault, captivated Washington and the nation on Thursday. The panel is meeting again this morning and could vote to move Kavanaugh's nomination to the Senate floor, where a procedural vote is planned for Saturday. That would set up a confirmation vote as early as Tuesday.

Red-state Democratic senators remained publicly undecided, as POLITICO's Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan report: "In addition to [West Virginia Democrat Joe] Manchin, Democratic Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota are viewed as potential votes for Kavanaugh. All are up for reelection in red states. Senators and aides expect that Donnelly, Manchin, [Alaska Republican Lisa] Murkowski and [Maine Republican Susan] Collins will all vote the same way, though which way that is remains unclear. Democrats believe Heitkamp could vote no. But her opponent in her Senate race, Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), said he expects her to support the nominee despite Ford's
allegations."

Meanwhile, two Republican Senate candidates running against Democrats, Matt Rosendale of Montana and Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin, put out statements reiterating their support for Kavanaugh.

But the future of his Supreme Court nomination, and the impact the allegations against him will have on the midterms, remain unclear.

Good Friday morning. Your usual host Zach Montellaro remains at large, but this is my final day filling in for him. I hope you've enjoyed this week as much as I have. Shoot me tips, notes, jokes or just say hello: jarkin@politico.com / @JamesArkin.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ZachMontellaro, @ec_schneider, and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 39.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country! Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today! Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.

HUNTER GATHERING SUPPORT - Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, who was indicted in August for allegedly misusing campaign funds, holds a lead in a new Monmouth University poll, per Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "...the indictment has not turned the voters of California's 50th Congressional District - a Republican-heavy slice of San Diego County - against Hunter, at least not yet, according to the poll. One in 10 respondents who think Hunter is 'probably guilty of the charges' are still willing to support his reelection bid. Just under 40 percent of voters believe Hunter is either definitely or probably guilty of these charges."

FIRST IN SCORE - Republican super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with two new ads today in Iowa's 3rd District - both say Democrat Cindy Axne would support increasing the Estate Tax. The first new ad attacks Axne by comparing her to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and saying she would "turn Iowa backward" on taxes. The second new ad features a farmer saying, "If Cindy Axne has her way, we could lose everything."

- New York Republican Rep. John Katko's campaign released two new ads. The first is an attack ad featuring a nurse practitioner criticizing Democrat Dana Balter for supporting a "government takeover of health care." The second ad features Katko talking about protecting freshwater lakes and calling himself a "moderate in the hyperpartisan Congress" looking for solutions.

- Speaking of ads: It was another day full of ad releases in the major House, Senate and governor's campaigns around the country. A couple of trends that stick out: Military pushback from Democrats against GOP attacks, and Republican invocations of Pelosi. In NJ-03, Democrat Andy Kim's latest spot features a retired Marine colonel touting Kim's experience and calling attacks on his resume "not just wrong, it's offensive." In WV-03, Democrat Richard Ojeda brings the military experience himself, saying in an ad that his patriotism has been questioned and that Republican Carol Miller "has enjoyed a life of privilege under the very freedoms that I have fought for."

- On the GOP side, Rep. Fred Upton calls Democratic opponent Matt Longjohn "perfect for Pelosi, too extreme for Southwest Michigan" in his new spot, while FL-07 Republican Mike Miller hits Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy for "vot[ing] with liberal Nancy Pelosi."

KOCHS ENGAGE - Three different groups in the Koch network released new ad campaigns in three races in recent days. In the Tennessee Senate race, Americans for Prosperity Action released two new digital ads attacking former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen on health care. In the Nevada gubernatorial race, Freedom Partners Action Fund released a digital ad attacking Democrat Steve Sisolak arguing he practices "crony politics at its worst." In the Montana Senate race, Concerned Veterans for America Action released a digital ad attacking Sen. Jon Tester, accusing him of insufficiently supporting veterans.

** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers.
aarp.org/vote **

TWIN CITY TURNAROUND - Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen won in 2016 by double digits despite Hillary Clinton winning his district. This year's campaign is a different story, thanks to President Donald Trump. Via Roll Call's Simone Pathe: "Two years ago, the bombastic New York real estate mogul was just a candidate who many people in this well-educated, suburban Twin Cities district thought was going to lose. Now, he's the president of the United States. For Paulsen, who's never faced re-election with a Republican in the White House before, that could be enough to turn off his district's infamous ticket-splitting voters."

LONELY ONLY IN W.VA. - Sen. Joe Manchin is a lonely Democrat running for reelection in the deep-red state. GQ's Jason Zengerle profiles the race: "'I mean, we do get along,' Manchin said of the president, almost as much to himself as to me. 'We get along. And there's things he's done that I like and support, okay? And there's things I would love to help him with and make him better.' Soon Manchin stopped speaking to me - or himself - and began addressing Trump. '"Mr. President, these Democrats are not all that bad - just because we have a D by our name,"' Manchin said. '"It seems like you're the president of the Republicans. I want you to be the president of all of us. You're my president."'

Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Lupe Valdez will face off in their first debate Friday, MySanAntonio.com reports.

CODA - QUOTE(S) OF THE DAY: "One hundred percent." - Christine Blasey Ford on whether she was certain in her allegation against Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

"Hundred percent certain" - Kavanaugh, when asked if he had any doubts the accusation was untrue.

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington.
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **

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