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10/05/2018 07:58 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

SENATE GOP CONFIDENT IN KAVANAUGH VOTE -- Senate Republicans are confident the chamber will advance Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's nomination this morning, setting up a possible confirmation vote Saturday. But three Republicans -- and a conservative red-state Democrat -- remain undecided. GOP leaders, however, are encouraged by early comments from undecided Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), who signaled satisfaction with the FBI report senators began reviewing Thursday. "Most Republicans view that FBI inquiry as essentially exonerating Kavanaugh of two women's allegations of sexual misconduct," Burgess and Elana write. "They don't want to get out ahead of
Collins, Flake and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), but believe the trio's main concerns about the nominee have now been addressed."

Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) expressed optimism that Kavanaugh will soon sit on the high court, noting that Republicans had honored undecided senators' requests to hear from Christine Blasey Ford and allow a supplemental background investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh. "We did that. It turned up no new information," Cornyn said. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) added that the probe "checked all the boxes and satisfied the concerns they had about talking to more people." "The three that matter? Well, I'm sensing we're in a good place," Thune said. "I feel pretty good about where we are."

But wait: There's a possibility Saturday's confirmation vote could drag into Sunday. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) supports Kavanaugh but will be walking his daughter down the aisle at her wedding Saturday. "McConnell could hold the vote open for hours for him to get back and confirm the judge," they note. But leaders won't know whether they'll need his vote until today's procedural vote to advance the nomination. If that gets at least 51 votes, Republicans would presumably have 50 votes to confirm Kavanaugh, leaving Vice President Mike Pence to break a tie. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10b71849b8eba0e5732b7bb091038ab5560608c08cb72cdc97b83a456f98192fb3c1a0f931c89a32e8

Related: "Key Republicans signal confidence in FBI report on Kavanaugh," by Elana, Burgess and Bres: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10c08607276ab182bdb062fd055715e90e7a5f41dd1ee4f67b2991811536550030972280435f4db921 and "Kavanaugh probe secrecy again leaves FBI exposed to politics," from Marianne Levine and Kyle: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10097d85b6667b68d2a117add7c86a1121abd64e2aeeb0d219c74261fb6e2975366c21ad57f80153cc

RED-STATE DEMS LEAVE MANCHIN ON AN ISLAND -- Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) each voted for Neil Gorsuch last year. Yet on Kavanaugh, Donnelly announced his opposition last week, and Heitkamp came out against Kavanaugh on Thursday, leaving Manchin as the sole Democrat who could vote for the president's second Supreme Court nominee. Heitkamp told WDAY her decision was not political. "If this were a political decision for me, I would be deciding this the other way," she said, explaining that "I can't get up in the morning and look at the life experience I have had and say yes to Judge Kavanaugh." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10349483307c957c0acc29567640b3187c50dab9e0ad0a269e2151e2c00ae3acf8d976e05730c357aa

Manchin will continue reviewing the FBI report this morning. He got about halfway through the material Thursday but told reporters that while he hasn't made up his mind yet, Heitkamp's decision won't influence him. "Heidi made her decision," Manchin said. "I'll make mine." "Republican officials have long believed that if they can get 50 of the 51 GOP senators needed to clinch Kavanaugh's confirmation, they have a chance of winning Manchin's support and putting a bipartisan label on the vote," The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan, Mike DeBonis and Seung Min Kim report. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea104d6a29953608c01a0a328eaf493e4a1e974570b69f3d023ea0e8acb793664f848fe452eacb9c93be

IN HIS OWN WORDS -- Kavanaugh conceded that he was "very emotional" and said things he shouldn't have said during last week's defiant testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee. He said he was testifying to defend his name, his family and his life of public service. "My hearing testimony was forceful and passionate," he wrote in a Wall Street Journal editorial. "That is because I forcefully and passionately denied the allegation against me." While his testimony sometimes "reflected my overwhelming frustration at being wrongly accused, without corroboration, of horrible conduct completely contrary to my record and character," his responses "also reflected my deep distress at the
unfairness of how this allegation has been handled."

He testified as a son, husband and dad, he said, with his parents, wife and daughters on his mind. Kavanaugh maintained that he has been "subjected to wrongful and sometimes vicious allegations" from his "ridiculously distorted" time in high school and college, and his wife and daughters "have faced vile and violent threats." Still, he would be a nonpartisan, pro-law justice if confirmed to the Supreme Court, he wrote. "Going forward, you can count on me to be the same kind of judge and person I have been for my entire 28-year legal career: hardworking, even-keeled, open-minded, independent and dedicated to the Constitution and the public good," he said. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea1014c3fa254a8597b2968f918d1f907658518a5791a76778c0990410f5f7b54e4545cfdde6ce12c59a

Related read: "Retired Supreme Court Justice: Kavanaugh does not belong on high court," per the Palm Beach Post's Lulu Ramadan: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10e8a4f52966888aff7b46d5bf02a355983a194f8ba920b493d98285a5190ec574b8913b741e4a2de0

HAPPY FRIDAY! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Oct. 5.

** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: Access to abortion gives us dignity, freedom, hope. When opponents push abortion further out of reach, or criminalize it, they deny our humanity. With heightened threats from every branch of government, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible to everyone, everywhere. **

THURSDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Burgess' report on the fired Democratic congressional intern who was arrested and charged after allegedly doxing Republican senators was the winner.

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TRUMP RIPS MINNESOTA DEMS -- President Donald Trump mocked former Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) at a political rally last night for quickly resigning over sexual misconduct allegations and dismissed his replacement, appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.). "Nobody knows who the hell she is," Trump said of Smith, adding that "she took a wacky guy's place." "Boy, did he fold up like a wet rag, huh?" the president continued. "He was gone so fast, OK?" Trump's rally for Minnesota Republicans was ultimately a 71-minute session on the media, North Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Democrats. At one point, GOP Senate candidate Karin Housley suggested the president say her name more and her
opponent's name less.

"In contrast to his attack on Mr. Franken, Mr. Trump was silent about allegations made by a former girlfriend against Representative Keith Ellison, Democrat of Minnesota, that he physically and emotionally abused her," The New York Times' Maggie Haberman and Emily Cochrane note. "Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Ellison as too liberal on immigration and health care, but noted that Mr. Ellison had seen the president's potential early on in the 2016 campaign and had said so on a Sunday morning talk show." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea1083a52b34b6bb4eb7c37a1f5ea405401692fa3e81c42fe79c49c9f6784efadd4f1e55136b4c8c64b5

Ellison, a deputy DNC chair, is considering leaving his post to focus on his race for state attorney general. Minnesota "has lost two state lawmakers and a popular U.S. senator amid sexual misconduct allegations," HuffPost's writes. "But of all the scandals, the biggest one looming over the midterm elections is a domestic abuse allegation against ... Ellison... Not only is it giving a jolt to the Republican side, but it's worrying some Democrats who would ordinarily vote for Ellison." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea103058bc09e43e48ec26f02e1e5d41a2990de4f3279ce47b9cc94352d29dd70a612c5c4372e76d1f05

Related read: "At Rochester rally, Trump makes a case for Minnesota Republicans in November," via the Star Tribune's Judy Keen, Kelly Smith and Stephen Montemayor: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10ff9957065906a982b3c7ace956c4957f2a2d8cc327132b58abbebb0bd6fb736053eb53fbbe538620

MEANWHILE, IN FLORIDA -- The president's political team wanted to hold a rally next week with GOP gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis and the Republican candidate who hopes to succeed DeSantis in the House, Michael Waltz, who "declined amid concerns about the risks of publicly stumping with Trump, and instead wanted the president to headline a private fundraiser in his central Florida-based district," Marc Caputo reports. In the end, both events fell through. "The episode provides a revealing glimpse into the midterm election homestretch, where many Republican House incumbents and candidates are scrambling to lock down their elections -- and to keep some distance from their party's
polarizing president," Caputo adds. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea1064dbb107295f31245cb9aeb1aa994edff3ed5ce7e59bdb4c42aaaefd68931e95126933637c558a90

FUNDRAISING BOOM -- Sixty Democratic congressional candidates hit the $1 million mark in third-quarter fundraising from July through September. Thirty of those candidates topped $2 million last quarter, and eight raked in more than $3 million in that span. "The fundraising success we're seeing with our candidates ... puts them in the strongest places they can [be in] as we put our entire strategy together to make sure they can win these seats across the country," DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) told reporters.

"House Democrats' widespread fundraising success reflects a super-charged base in 2018, which has sent a flood of donations from big and small donors alike to candidates across the country," Elena Schneider and Rachael Bade report. "ActBlue, a Democratic fundraising platform, raised $100 million for candidates and organizations in August, the group's largest one-month total ever. The gush of online money also allowed Democrats to jump on the TV airwaves in August, allowing some to define themselves ahead of a deluge of Republican outside spending." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10a218d2a08d9188ae07e7fa71470d63ee4a5f7ce27d49e341cd9829b94c1cb93077a596bb11508b26

KAVANAUGH LOOMS OVER NEVADA SENATE RACE -- Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), the Democratic nominee running against the Senate's most vulnerable Republican in Dean Heller, "is in an extraordinary, and tricky, situation" with Kavanaugh on the verge of being confirmed to the Supreme Court. "[S]he initially had a powerful weapon: The G.O.P.-led confirmation hearings ... and Mr. Heller's gaffe that the sexual assault allegations against the nominee would just be a 'hiccup' in his rise to the Supreme Court," The New York Times' Sydney Ember reports. "But Ms. Rosen ... is now among the Democrats nationwide facing new energy from Republican voters who are defending Judge Kavanaugh and his patron,
President Trump."

Rosen, a freshman lawmaker and former synagogue president, is still a political newcomer -- in a political moment that Ember notes "requires deft skills on the campaign trail." But Rosen is "neither cagey nor glossy nor particularly electrifying." Nor is she Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) or soon-to-be Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). "Perhaps more significantly, Nevada is Nevada," Ember adds, noting the state narrowly went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but isn't really red or blue. "[I]t may be receptive to a fiery takedown of Mr. Heller over Judge Kavanaugh. Or it may not be. ... [I]t is far from clear how the bitter nomination battle will affect the Heller-Rosen race." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea109d02008d76de7e10d5e86823e8fbaad371d3ad02eec25ec9f3cfdf7b4577bef67be823a815842399

Related: "G.O.P. Hopes Anger Over Treatment of Kavanaugh Propels Voters to the Polls," by The New York Times' Jeremy W. Peters and Maggie Haberman: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea1018163fefc616e253972ba8b8b41d053325ea71343444aa6a47d31a410e666296395773e598c71470 and "Kavanaugh bump? GOP fights for new energy as vote nears," from The Associated Press' Steve Peoples: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=68d68231e1fcea10d801871a022a7ffd6b5f46621190a94bce3f604e31c88f256288c4eb79b90dce1044403e1f7b0d2b

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The Senate meets at 9:30 a.m. to resume consideration of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. At approximately 10:30 a.m., the chamber will hold a procedural vote on Kavanaugh's nomination. A final confirmation vote is possible Saturday. The House is out.

THURSDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Kevin Petroccione was first to correctly guess that Benjamin Wade came within one vote of becoming president of the United States when he served as president pro tempore of the Senate. Wade would have become acting president had the Senate convicted Andrew Johnson after the House voted to impeach him. Conviction on an article of impeachment fell one vote shy of the two-thirds majority required, 35-19.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Kevin: Who was the last Supreme Court justice to be confirmed unanimously, who nominated him, who did he replace and what was the final vote tally? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: A recent report by nonpartisan medical experts concludes that abortion is safe and effective health care. The report makes clear that quality abortion care is threatened by medically unnecessary regulations that target abortion providers, limited training opportunities, and a lack of public funding. These restrictions punish women and undermine care.

Now more than ever, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible without shame, stigma or barriers.

Learn more and join the fight at www.liesintolaws.org/abortion **

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