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By James Hohmann (
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GOP SURPRISE - WISCONSIN REPUBLICANS HOLDS SENATE - DEMS SNAG TWO SEATS; NEEDED THREE- Democrats claimed the scalps of two senators who supported Gov. Scott Walker's ambitious efforts to curtail collective bargaining rights for state employees, but Republicans won the larger war by maintaining control of the state Senate. Four of six Republicans facing recalls survived the night. The Democratic state chairman announced overnight that his party will not challenge the close election results, and the governor released a conciliatory statement. Two Democrats face recalls next week, but these will draw little attention because control of the chamber is no longer at stake. The results make a push
to recall Walker himself next year less likely but not out of the question.
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EXCLUSIVE - DCCC TO HIT BACK AT HOUSE REPUBLICANS TO DOWNGRADE - The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will blast upwards of 50 customized press releases today that blame individual House Republicans for the U.S. credit rating downgrade. Each will cite a Standard and Poor's document that criticized "the majority of Republicans in Congress [who] continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues." A sample from one attack: "The downgrade of America's credit rating and the expected higher interest rates that come with it are thanks to Representative Bob Dold (IL-10) recklessly protecting tax breaks for multi-millionaires and tax subsidies for Big Oil...The Dold-Boehner
downgrade of American credit could raise interest rates for consumers - raising costs of credit cards, car loans, and mortgages." This effort comes the day after the National Republican Congressional Committee began robo-calling voters in 10 Democratic districts to criticize them for not supporting a Balanced Budget Amendment and to blame them for the S&P action.

FIRST IN SCORE - SANTORUM GETS HUCKABEE (AT LEAST HIS GUITAR) - Rick Santorum's campaign will announce today that one of the performers at his Ames straw poll stage Saturday will be none other than Mike Huckabee, who's known, among other things, for occasionally rocking out on his Fox News show. Huckabee will play alongside Buddy Holly's 'The Crickets' at 11:30 that morning. From Santorum's statement: "If there is anyone who understands traditional family values and Iowa's great political heritage, it is Governor Huckabee. I know how much our supporters will enjoy visiting with him and dancing along to his well-known bass playing." (h/t Dan Hirschhorn)

NOT PLAYING FAVORITES -HUCK ALSO PLANS STOPS AT CAIN AND PAWLENTY TENTS - Santorum isn't the only Ames contestant who will enjoy a Huckabee cameo. Herman Cain's campaign announced yesterday that the 2008 Iowa caucus winner will play some music in his tent at noon (Cain is also set to make his second appearance on Huckabee's Fox show that night). It wasn't long after word broke of Cain's musical coup that Huck's daughter, Tim Pawlenty adviser Sarah Huckabee Sanders, took to Twitter to proclaim: 'My dad @govmikehuckabee will be playing with Sonicflood and the Nadas @timpawlenty's tent at the Ames Straw Poll on Sat! Very excited!'
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***As we await Huntsman's mystery announcement, Ryan looks to increase his visibility in Iowa ahead of Ames and Lugar says the economy is still strong, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

LIVE THIS MORNING - NEW DNC OPPO WEB SITE - The Democratic National Committee, continuing its "Extreme Aims" campaign rollout ahead of the Ames straw poll, is going live today with a new web site that they are describing as a "one-stop-shop for all things Republican in the 2012 election cycle." Each of nine candidates gets a profile page. These will become go-to repositories for embarrassing quotes and other research on the vulnerabilities in the record of each. Up right now are new web videos attacking Mitt Romney, Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann. From the DNC: "In short, we've created a site that over time will have everything you need to know about the GOP 2012 field and
their extreme aims for the country." Check out the site here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7d0844162b035f4bde1260db75a19d9d0e6e0b847f6b06a15e6084b3f0ff73b0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7d0844162b035f4bde1260db75a19d9d0e6e0b847f6b06a15e6084b3f0ff73b0 .

NEXT UP: ARIZONA- SB1070 AUTHOR COULD BE RECALLED IN NOVEMBER - With voting in Wisconsin over, national Democrats and progressive groups can turn their attention to a recall campaign in Arizona. State Senate President Russell Pearce, the author of last year's controversial SB 1070 immigration law, faces a November 8 recall. No sitting senator has ever been recalled in Arizona, and a Democratic source acknowledges that even a successful recall would probably not flip the seat into Democratic hands. But the source says knocking off an ally of Republican Gov. Jan Brewer would energize Democratic and Hispanic activists heading into a presidential election in a state the president's reelection
campaign hopes might become competitive. 'Russell Pearce is nationally recognized as Exhibit A of what's wrong with Arizona's Republican-led state government," said Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Andrei Cherny. "He is, by far, the most powerful politician in the state - and for him to now face a fellow conservative Republican in a recall campaign shows just how out of step the GOP leadership in the state has become.'

"MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT"? - MYSTERY SHROUDS HUNTSMANS' FLORIDA PRESSER - Jon Huntsman's campaign announced yesterday afternoon that the candidate will make "a major announcement" at 11:15 a.m. Wednesday at Scotty's Landing in Coconut Grove, Florida. The likely guess is that it is a high-profile endorsement. Two Sunshine State sources tell Jonathan Martin that "it's not Jeb [Bush] himself [the most coveted endorsement in the state] - but that the former governor's son, Jebbie, has indicated to Republicans that he's backing Huntsman." The junior Bush went to events with Huntsman on his announcement tour so that wouldn't be a shocker. It could also be someone else entirely. With the way they hyped
it, the bar is pretty high for them to surprise or offer up someone good. Otherwise it could be an embarrassment for a campaign struggling to get traction.
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GRAND STRATEGY - JEB' WSJ OP-ED ON HOW TO GROW THE ECONOMY - Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, may not be endorsing Huntsman. But he is still talked about as a potential presidential candidate, maybe in 2016, and he does make some news in an op-ed that appears in today's Wall Street Journal. Along with former Federal Reserve governor and current Hoover Institution fellow Kevin Warsh, he offers several proposals as part of a broader framework he says could help this country grow out of the economic mess: "Clearly, U.S. economic policy is sorely lacking an effective grand strategy... We should resist the temptation to wrangle with the green eyeshade folks who question our prospects.
Instead, we must take actions that demonstrate our resolve and resiliency. We must restore our faith in growth economics and reform our policies accordingly." Read his piece:
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f16a4cd46d79618fb71bf5659c6a5552216dab8969f6f59294610d889855dd14 .

PERRY GOES TO IOWA SUNDAY-'Americans for Rick Perry' volunteers in their Texas burnt orange shirts who had driven up from the Lone Star State were out in force yesterday to encourage Iowans to write in Rick Perry's name on the straw poll ballot. But the man himself is coming Sunday. After making clear he's running in South Carolina and going to a house party in New Hampshire, Perry will wrap up this weekend with a Sunday afternoon speech to the Black Hawk County Republicans' Lincoln Day Dinner in Waterloo. Ironically, it is the same Electric Park ballroom where Bachmann gave a big speech on the eve of her official announcement. The Des Moines Register notes that other speakers include Sen.
Chuck Grassley and state GOP chair Matt Strawn.
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AN INSULTED IOWAN - COULD PERRY'S SATURDAY GAMBIT BACKFIRE? -Craig Robinson of TheIowaRepublican.com calls Perry's decision to rain on Ames' parade with the timing of his announcement a disrespectful and arrogant "slap in the face." He warns that it will offend the party activists who take the process and the straw poll, a major fundraiser for the state party, seriously. "Stealing some of the media attention away from the Straw Poll and the candidates that are participating on Saturday may seem like a savvy thing to do, but it comes at a high price," Robinson wrote on his blog yesterday. "Perry is acting as if he is the 800-pound gorilla that is about to enter the race, but he's
not...Ironically, Perry has done a better job of insulting Iowa Republicans than Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman have done by just [avoiding] the state."
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EXPECATIONS SETTING - "FOR PAWLENTY, IT'S AMES OR BUST" - Three days before the straw poll, Alex Burns and Maggie Haberman look at just how high the stakes are for Tim Pawlenty going into the weekend. He has spent more than a million bucks to build the best ground game of any campaign in the state, but he's struggling to prove that he can excite the grassroots in the Hawkeye state. From their story: "Iowa caucus veterans say...anything short of a flat-out win will make it exceedingly difficult for him to claim momentum in a rapidly accelerating 2012 primary race. With all the resources Pawlenty has committed to Iowa, he'll need a real trophy to carry back to his core supporters, as well as
the undecided donors he desperately needs to win over. Pawlenty has struggled to raise money throughout his 2012 bid, and could end up running on fumes if he can't demonstrate his viability in Iowa this weekend."
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AMES STRAW POOL UPDATE: I received 10 detailed entries yesterday with rankings of who will finish in what order for the straw pool, the percentage they'll get and the total number of votes cast. You can enter until 3 a.m. ET on Friday by emailing me at jhohmann@politico.com. Robinson (quoted above on Perry) planned and organized the 2007 straw poll as political director of Iowa's Republican Party, and he posted his predictions on his TheIowaRepublican.com blog yesterday: 1. Paul; 2. Bachmann; 3. Pawlenty; 4. Santorum; 5. Cain; 6. Romney; 7. Gingrich; 8. McCotter; 9. Huntsman. Perry was not on his list. He adds: "Percentages are meaningless. What counts in Ames is raw votes. The hardest
thing to predict is total votes. My guess is that it will be somewhere between 12,000 and 14,000." Read his explanation:
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BACHMANN - NEWSWEEK COVER BECOMES TWO-DAY STORY - It's exactly the buzz that Tina Brown wanted. Bill O'Reilly talked about the "Queen of Rage" cover on his Fox News program last night, capping a day of debate about the appropriateness of a manic-looking photo of Michele Bachmann on the cover of this week's Newsweek. The magazine itself came across somewhat eager to fan the controversy when it posted outtakes that showed the Minnesota congresswoman looking intense while interacting with voters. NBC reported that the cover art came from a lighting test during a D.C. photo shoot in the midst of the debt ceiling debate. "The source tells NBC News that Newsweek shared photos from the shoot with
the campaign. The campaign indicated its preference. But the photo that Newsweek ultimately used on the cover was NOT among those preferred choices."
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b8b530a92b6756eb9a30482f61fb1b42534b45f88139254f5c8c304692f12e6 POLITICO's Emily Schultheis reports on four separate women's groups blasting the cover, including the National Organization for Women, the Women's Campaign Forum, the Women's Media Center and the conservative Concerned Women for America.
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SANTORUM - WHERE NO CANDIDATE HAS GONE BEFORE - Rick Santorum is focusing on rural hamlets not being visited by other candidates in the final days before Ames. He became the first 2012er yesterday, for example, to visit the small towns of Independence and Strawberry Point. POLITICO's Dan Hirschhorn takes a look at the dark horse's thinking: "There are at least 10 Iowa counties where Santorum's been the only 2012 candidate to campaign and 13 more where only one rival has campaigned. They span the rural outskirts of the state, especially in the deeply conservative northwest and the heavily Catholic northeast." He's hoping to win over supporters in small group settings, but there's a reason
other candidates aren't going out there: "Events in small areas draw relatively small crowds, a smaller number of which will sign up to help and an even smaller number of which will trek to Ames."
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CAIN - LOWERS EXPECTATIONS, KIND OF - Herman Cain told reporters last week that he needed to finish in the top three at Ames, but he backed away from that Tuesday in Sioux City. "Whether we finish first, second, third or fourth isn't as important as how many of our people show up and how many of them cast ballots for us," Cain said. Later, though, the Georgia businessman stood behind the podium from which Obama spoke the night he won the 2008 Iowa caucuses, now on display at the state's African-American museum. "They're gonna have to put mine in here next to his," Cain said.
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MCCOTTER - EXCLUDED FROM THURSDAY DEBATE - Fox News decided not to allow Thad McCotter to participate in tomorrow night's debate, even though he'll have prime real estate at Saturday's straw poll. Iowa state chair Matt Strawn told the Register that he was disappointed by Fox's decision, but he said tension is natural and it's up to the candidate to meet the polling criteria.
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RELITIGATING HEALTH CARE - TWO NEW ADS - As the Republican primaries heat up again, watch for the health care debate to flare up as well. Two ads that will begin airing today show that the dividing lines of last fall still exist, even if the issue has moved from the front burner.

PREVIEW - ATTACKING THE LAW - The Coalition to Protect Patients' Rights will begin airing an ad today that pushes for the repeal of the Independent Payment Advisory Board created by last year's health care law. The 30-second spot, which the coalition says they are backing up with "a strong seven figure nationwide cable buy," urges viewers to call their member of Congress. After a clip of Nancy Pelosi saying "we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it," a narrator intones: "After cutting $500 billion from Medicare, the president's health care law created a new law of 15 unelected bureaucrats, unaccountable, like a Medicare IRS with the power to cut payments to doctors
and deny seniors care to pay for more wasteful Washington spending. Tell Washington bureaucrats shouldn't have the power to deny seniors care." The American Medical Association and other health care groups are pushing for the change. Watch the ad:
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SNEAK PEEK -DEFENDING THE LAW - An ad going up today in the Des Moines media market that will run through Sunday is very much targeted toward the coming debate and straw poll. The five-figure buy in Iowa is by Know Your Care, the c(3) group focused on voter education that is linked with the more-political Protect Your Care c(4). It will run multiple times during Thursday night's Fox News debate and online. This ad is part of a fresh effort to link the health care law with job creation, emphasizing provisions like the small business tax cuts. The group says that 57,000 Iowa businesses are eligible for the relief. "Because of this health care law, now we have almost all of our employees
covered," the narrator, a bagel shop owner says. "My employees are there for me every morning and thanks to the health care law, I can be there for them." Watch the ad:
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=36ae9ef19e7df3360582a54424377d5718742a8f34589608a4fd82c3e31b43ac .

WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE UP TO IN IOWA - BESIDES DEBATE PREP:

Romney finally returns to the Hawkeye State, hosting a business roundtable at the Vermeer Corporation offices in Pella at noon, speaking at the Polk County Republican fundraiser at 5:30 p.m. and attending a house party in Des Moines.

Bachmann's only public event is a tour and employee roundtable at "Competitive Edge" at 11:15 a.m. in Clive. Pawlenty does meet-and-greets at 8 a.m. in Adel and at 10 a.m. in Winterset. Then he has three town halls (Atlantic, Harlan and Denison) before ending his day with a 7 p.m. rally at Zekes in Ames.

Cain makes bus tour stops in Clear Lake at 8:30 a.m. and in Rock Rapids at 3:30 p.m. Then he speaks, along with McCotter, at the 6 p.m. Dickinson County GOP Dinner in Okoboji.

Santorum attends an 8:15 a.m. FRC Action event at the Cedar Rapids Marriott before a 10 a.m. town hall in Anamosa and a 2 p.m. town hall at the public library in Hiawatha.

Paul hosts four meet-and-greets with his son Rand. They start at a restaurant in Mason City at 10 a.m., go to a convention center in Waterloo at noon, then a hotel in Cedar Rapids at 3 p.m. and wrap up with a 7 p.m. stop at the Des Moines Marriott.

Huntsman makes his surprise announcement in Florida, and Perry speaks at the National Conference of State Legislatures annual conference in San Antonio.
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ROMNEY - FUNDRAISES OFF OBAMA'S PLAN OF ATTACK - Mitt Romney's campaign had a field day with the POLITICO story by Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith on the Obama reelection campaign's plans to discredit Romney by defining him as personally weird and a greedy, latter-day Gordon Gekko. Not long after the report posted, Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades put out a statement calling the strategy "disgraceful." Then the campaign posted a 43-second web ad last night. It starts with a clip from Obama's Tucson speech in the wake of the near-assassination of Rep. Gabby Giffords this January. "...only a more civil and honest public discourse can help us face up to the challenges of our nation," the
president says. Then the following text appears on the screen: "Eight months later, with sagging poll numbers and his re-election in jeopardy, Obama campaign operatives unveil their strategy." Watch the video:
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ENTER STAGE RIGHT - RYAN LOOKS TO INCREASE IOWA VISIBILITY - Paul Ryan emailed his Prosperity PAC list yesterday asking for money to support an advertising effort in Iowa that defends his controversial budget proposals. He said that he wants to go on air in response to a Democratic National Committee effort this week to paint the 2012 candidates as extremists by linking them to, well, him. 'With Iowa's important role as an early state in the political process, I hope you'll recognize the need to take our fight there right now," he wrote. Score will keep an eye out for any Ryan moves in the Hawkeye State.
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DEMS ATTACK - LUGAR SAYS "ECONOMY IS STILL STRONG" - Sen. Richard Lugar, facing a tough Republican primary challenge, sought to reassure people about the health of the economy during an interview with an Indiana TV station a day after markets tanked. While most other incumbent Republicans blame Obama for the weak economy and bend over backwards to distance themselves from lackluster job growth, Lugar appeared to strike a somewhat different tone. "The American economy is still strong, that we're making progress although it's very slow in terms of job creation, and that we still have a dollar that is the world currency and we are still selling bonds to everybody all over the world despite the
S&P downgrade," Lugar said.
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Democrats pounced on a quote that critics might say conjures up memories of when John McCain said the economy was "fundamentally sound" the same day Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008. DSCC Press Secretary Shripal Shah writes: 'After 35 years in Washington, Senator Lugar is clearly out touch with the struggles that so many Hoosiers are facing right now and his remarks are nothing short of insulting to the Hoosier families who are very worried about what's happening on Wall Street."

NEBRASKA SENATE - AN "INARTFUL" COMPARISON - Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning's campaign manager says his candidate regrets the way he compared welfare recipients to raccoons during a discourse on environment regulation over the weekend. 'The raccoons figured out the beetles are in the bucket,' the Senate candidate said. 'And it's like grapes in a jar. The raccoons, they're not stupid, they're gonna do the easy way if we make it easy for them. Just like welfare recipients all across America. If we don't send them to work, they're gonna take the easy route.' A tracker for American Bridge 21st Century caught it on video:
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'What apology is in order? What was wrong that I said? ... It's not my fault that it was misunderstood. I'm sorry that it was misunderstood.' - John McCain, explaining his reference to "tea party hobbits" in the debt debate during an Arizona town hall.
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