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07/31/2018 07:58 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

SENATE GOP EYES MODEST GAINS -- Senate Republicans are desperate to gain even just one or two seats this fall, which would make a world of a difference after operating at a 50-49 majority for months. A slightly larger majority would strip Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) of their outsize influence and the immense pressure that comes with it. "Gone, too, would be the constant headaches for Republican leaders sweating an absence, wavering senator or Vice President Mike Pence's availability to break a tie," Burgess reports. "Republicans might even have another shot at repealing Obamacare or shrinking the size of the federal government."

Though Democrats are on defense, the Senate map has dramatically shifted in their favor the past 18 months. A filibuster-proof majority once seemed possible, but now Republicans just want a little more breathing room to carry out their agenda. "The minuscule margins will be under the microscope over the next month as Republicans hold a rare August work session," Burgess adds. "Just a single absence or 'no' vote by a Republican senator could be enough to derail Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's Senate agenda, including confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh."

"You have to have everybody on every vote" right now, said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who will likely become the GOP whip next year. "Sometimes people for different reasons want to be able to get cut loose from time to time [to break from the party] and we just don't have that luxury. Fifty vs. 53? Fifty-three is huge, relatively speaking." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a26d319f37622ea97c31e60d2f804664a8727d8eb6ba0dbe4263c1522c9227ba1116e91493a2e986b38f9d63b361405f

REPUBLICANS SHUT DOWN SHUTDOWN TALK -- President Donald Trump welcomed a government shutdown Monday, doubling down on his threat to close the federal government over a lack of border wall funding. That threat, however, is falling on deaf ears. "The congressional GOP is intent on sending Trump a series of government spending bills over the next two months that would fund the vast majority of the federal government," Burgess writes. "And despite the president's statement on Monday that he would have 'no problem doing a shutdown,' Republicans seem sure that he's not talking about a funding lapse right before the midterm elections."

"I'm optimistic we can avoid a government shutdown," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said twice Monday. McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) met with Trump last week at the White House, where they pitched the president on their plan to delay the border wall fight until after the election. "If everything goes smoothly this fall, the two Republican leaders anticipate funding all but a small slice of government through the regular appropriations process, and leaving Homeland Security funding and the border wall fight until a lame-duck session," Burgess adds. More on the GOP response: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a26d319f37622ea9da7eb8cf61f57123e416316d9a621d8529eb8e49f7e125cfe20dc6284b54c11ec86107740996746f

Related: "Trump's Lose-the-House Strategy," by The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=94dba2a21773e006570a8361a578c8cda97e09b9c8ce3b082aa05043f3476d1139176dcd34ce7f54402c247aad30bbae

MIDTERM TRUMP, THE KINGMAKER -- The president will rally for Rep. Ron DeSantis' (R-Fla.) gubernatorial campaign tonight in Tampa, Florida, ahead of the state's Aug. 28 primary. "Heading into the primary season, DeSantis was little-known to Republican voters," Marc Caputo and Nancy Cook report. "But then Trump tweeted support for him in December and followed with a second tweet in June, sending DeSantis zooming ahead of his primary opponent, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who has been twice elected statewide and has held various Florida offices for 21 years." Trump's tweets have also helped Katie Arrington and Rep. Martha Roby, GOP candidates in South Carolina and Alabama,
respectively.

"After suffering embarrassing losses in Alabama and Pennsylvania, where candidates he supported both lost special elections, Trump is stepping up his engagement in races up and down state and district ballots ahead of the midterms," they write. White House aides are strategizing how to use Trump and Pence to help the GOP maintain its congressional majorities. Republicans close to the White House expect Trump to hold more campaign-style rallies and continue tweeting about races. Trump and his team are also evaluating potential candidates to endorse "based on who is a consistent supporter of the president's agenda and the Republican mission, who can win, and who [would] be the best partner
once elected," they add. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=94dba2a21773e00688a48fbc604b185d179ce846cd3d56a93f500996b6af37aaabeeaeaa40408a59d3b56f47a7cb166c

Related reads: "Hillary Clinton steps up her involvement in the midterms," from CNN's Dan Merica: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3e0b8db4564512024ceb61820c1734ca1ac8d6a3ef032c8f2db1fa93f1c491328f5389fa49feba1a55554f03cc67f060 "'Pitbull Trump defender' takes on Ocasio-Cortez," via Marc Caputo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5d12e646d2347fe46cb3e9ceb33cffb6f7a4dfdcdc2978d362a967ab047f2a66216cfa791e0a4205af2234e0deefff64 and "Tom Steyer's $110 million plan to redefine the Democrats," by Edward-Isaac Dovere: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=94dba2a21773e006740bfed6145b40feeb3e709f3521891371838857ccebf7ca2a8de36d93c6107b3d191100ee3f96d5

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, July 31.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The clip of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) "Jeopardy" appearance was the winner.

RELIABLE RAND -- Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) will support Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, putting Republicans one step closer to securing enough votes to confirm the president's pick. "Paul released a statement citing the Supreme Court's June ruling in Carpenter v. United States, which broadly limited law enforcement's ability to monitor individuals using cell phone data without a warrant, as a 'new precedent' leaving him hopeful that 'Judge Kavanaugh will be more open to a Fourth Amendment that protects digital records and property,'" Elana reports.

Paul insisted he was "honestly undecided" on Kavanaugh earlier this month, based on concerns with the judge's record on privacy. But lawmakers largely expected him to ultimately fall in line, like he did when he reversed himself after initially opposing Mike Pompeo's nomination to be secretary of state. His support for Kavanaugh drew recognition from Trump, who thanked the Kentucky senator on Twitter. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are unlikely to take a position on Kavanaugh ahead of his confirmation hearings. Neither has met with the nominee yet. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=94dba2a21773e0067861e3dc530bb833d9d2fa387dd1ac06e0c91bc3ae0000811e4893a4d0afcdba90f36ac97559a902

MANCHIN'S MEETING 'VERY PRODUCTIVE' -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) became the first Democrat to meet with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh on Monday. Manchin met privately with Kavanaugh for a "very productive" two-hour session but said he would likely seek a second sit down after his confirmation hearings. "There's always going to be things that come up that maybe we didn't count on or maybe we didn't cover, or maybe that I want more clarification [on]," said Manchin, who is unlikely to reveal his position before Kavanaugh's hearings.

"[T]he intense pro-Kavanaugh push Manchin faces from conservative groups and GOP challenger Patrick Morrisey didn't appear to affect him, a sign that Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) private entreaties for vulnerable red-state Democrats to keep mum on their stance may be paying off," Elana writes. "The longer Manchin takes, however, the more time Republicans will have to hammer him for holding out on endorsing a nominee whom many assume he eventually will back." Manchin is one of three red-state Democrats who voted to confirm the president's first Supreme Court pick, Neil Gorsuch. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=94dba2a21773e0069ab2df40005f3774edc0e7954600618d1937e2f4441559424f1a13dc72698723c06fc852d5b9f43b

Related: "More documents emerge from Kavanaugh's work for Starr," from Josh Gerstein: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5d12e646d2347fe412e64c485abf7c1c6e9b0f2997d58d8120738b8fd4bc4dc17cd47b6545e319ec36e3a4e729c86a61 and "Kavanaugh Sided With Trump Casino in 2012 to Thwart Union Drive," via Bloomberg Politics' Josh Eidelson: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=94dba2a21773e006f8b4902da2bbc07efb4e5944ac98a1ad8313d5e187441731750b6aa16895df1a743b7e67a6896854

KOCH NETWORK SNUBS CRAMER -- The Koch political network isn't putting money, staff or volunteers behind Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), the GOP nominee challenging Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) this fall. "We can't support him at this time," said Americans for Prosperity President Tim Phillips, who told top conservative donors that Cramer is "inconsistent" on key issues like reducing government spending and supporting free trade. "And to be clear, we've met with his team, explained this, and lobbied him on this to change their ways." Cramer dismissed the snub, saying that while his voting record may not be what every national organization wants, "it is exactly what the majority of North Dakotans
expect."

"Cramer was the first Republican Senate candidate to be publicly jettisoned by the powerful Koch network this cycle. But during a private briefing over the weekend, donors were given a hand-out that indicated the network is also currently not supporting Senate candidates in two other key states -- Indiana and Nevada -- according to a photo of the document obtained by POLITICO," Maggie Severns reports. Businessman Mike Braun is facing Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), and Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) is running for reelection in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. An official said the Koch network is only active in Senate races in Wisconsin, Missouri, Tennessee and Florida. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3e0b8db456451202370d73b3570a4464bbf8d04578119af29bbc18dcb5b73a7a3721ace8301b950af9cfbdfeb9a62c84

TAX CUTS 2.0? -- Who needs the legislative branch? "The Trump administration is considering bypassing Congress to grant a $100 billion tax cut mainly to the wealthy, a legally tenuous maneuver that would cut capital gains taxation and fulfill a long-held ambition of many investors and conservatives," The New York Times' Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley report. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, "If it can't get done through a legislation process, we will look at what tools at Treasury we have to do it on our own and we'll consider that." He added that Treasury is studying the issue, as well as the economic costs and growth impact.

"The move would face a near-certain court challenge," they write. "It could also reinforce a liberal critique of Republican tax policy at a time when Republicans are struggling to sell middle-class voters on the benefits of the tax cuts that President Trump signed into law late last year." Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said giving "the top 1 percent another advantage is an outrage and shows the Republicans' true colors." He also argued that it "must be done by legislation." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3e0b8db456451202ae1f56a3da7bc5670afbb94b1b9630214d15eaecc0c84cc558bfc074f5b4d643f1aaf2b23127e2b7

Related: "'It's a significant shift in our thinking': Business takes fresh look at Democrats," by Lorraine Woellert and Marianne Levine: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3e0b8db456451202a19d1c056f02cf0095452ab44a6fe952f9c8473d4cd7a0df3e2a8056a80da6090c1e7e9f7ae69559

REMEMBERING RON DELLUMS -- Former Rep. Ron Dellums (D-Calif.) died Monday at his home in Washington, D.C., following a battle with cancer. Dellums, 82, spent 27 years in Congress and served one term as mayor of Oakland. "As a congressman, Dellums is best remembered for his uncompromising opposition to the Vietnam War and compelling speeches on the House floor," Rachel Swan writes in the San Francisco Chronicle. "Over the years, Dellums earned the respect of his peers. He embraced his radical left-wing status and used it strategically, presenting liberal policy ideas that would shift the debate further left, even when he knew they were too extreme to win a majority vote." The obit:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3e0b8db45645120290cd95d2520caed9daf3bee27e2e4f3981a868e90c2ebf924778fb51bb1136c148d7ecfb3e219e38

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The Senate meets at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of judicial nominee Britt Grant. At 12:15 p.m., the chamber will vote on the motion to concur with respect to the House's four-month extension of the National Flood Insurance Program. At 2:15 p.m., the chamber will vote to confirm Grant and hold a procedural vote on Sen. Richard Shelby's (R-Ala.) substitute amendment to the minibus. The House is out.

AROUND THE HILL -- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) will hold a news conference to discuss the dangers of 3D downloadable guns and new legislation to address the threat at 10:30 a.m. in SVC-201.

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) will hold a meeting with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at 11 a.m. in 260 Russell.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) will hold a news conference with legal experts to discuss Republicans' efforts to hide Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's records from the Senate and the American people at 12 p.m. in S-115.

Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) will hold a meeting with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at 12:45 p.m. in 521 Dirksen.

Senate Republican and Democratic leaders will hold separate press conferences after their weekly policy lunches starting around 2 p.m. in the Ohio Clock Corridor.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Theodore Merkel was first to correctly guess that President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed into law a resolution declaring the U.S. national motto "In God We Trust," which first appeared on the 1864 two-cent coin.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Theodore: The Senate holds an 18 x 26-foot picture of this early American hero's exploits. A native of Providence, Rhode Island, he is the descendant of Scottish freedom fighter William Wallace and brother of a U.S. admiral famous in his own right for ending the national seclusion of a major Asian nation. He also authored a famously concise victory note to future President William Henry Harrison. Who is he? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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