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By Theodoric Meyer | 02/25/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard, Marc Caputo and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

SHELLING OUT - "House members spend big ahead of first primaries," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "House incumbents are on a spending spree ahead of the first primaries of 2016. ... Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas all have congressional primaries concurrent with the presidential race - which has produced record Republican turnout in every state so far - on March 1. Members from Texas, facing both primary challengers and a tumultuous political environment, spent nearly $5.3 million on their reelection campaigns through the first six weeks of 2016 - an increase of more than 50 percent over their pre-primary spending at this time in 2014, according to FEC reports."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac0b06569687585869b80c91ccd606b3c2ac4888c51e156c33

- "House GOP incumbents fight for survival in throw-the-bums-out year," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman in The Woodlands, Texas: GOP Rep. Kevin Brady, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee is one of a number of House Republican incumbents "scrambling to fend off anti-establishment challengers in the season of Trump and Cruz. But the Ways and Means chief's situation is exceptional: Very rarely does a lawmaker so high in the House hierarchy have to have to sweat so hard to keep his seat. The dynamics are eerily similar to when poorly-funded Dave Brat came out of nowhere to topple former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia two years ago - one of Brady's opponents called Brat an
'inspiration.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac7525e5272555414841974228d81f7f1811da97265ce56001

CARTOGRAPHIC ANXIETY - "Redistricting throws North Carolina delegation into chaos," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "A suddenly changed primary date and new congressional maps pending before a federal court have North Carolina campaigns in panic mode this week," with several House members facing complicated and expensive paths to reelection. "While waiting for the maps to be approved, House members are scrambling through contingency plans, scrapping media buys and traveling to far-flung counties outside their current districts. ... Candidates and outside groups had already spent more than half a million dollars on television ads that aired months before the primary, during which time
name recognition could fade, instead of in the weeks leading up to voting as originally planned." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bacc4d753e714692d69c4df5ff1ce99a9fa251b7f8014455569

Days until the South Carolina Democratic primary: 2. Days until the 2016 election: 257.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Parmesan blasphemy: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

FIRST IN SCORE - Andrea Zopp goes up on the air: Days after her Democratic primary rival Tammy Duckworth and GOP Sen. Mark Kirk went up the air, Andrea Zopp will start airing TV ads on Thursday. The spot, like so many other Democrats' TV ads this cycle, focuses on gun control. "I'm a mom and a former prosecutor," Zopp says after a clip of President Barack Obama talking about gun violence in Chicago. "I fought to get guns like these off our streets. It's time to close background check loopholes and ban military-style assault weapons."

- Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac85faf4e280f2a29da77ad2d6e7b9d9998979dc6d114ceaca

GETTING IN - "Carlos Beruff enters crowded GOP race for U.S. Senate," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: Carlos Beruff, a longtime Florida homebuilder and political newcomer, officially announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate on Wednesday by releasing a brief YouTube video where the Republican explains glimpse of his biography and conservative views of government and job creation. "A lot of these people in Washington today do not have any idea how to run a business," Beruff says in the video, which shows him talking to voters and holding forth at job sites. "We create things. We create 'em from scratch. And in doing so, we create a lot of good paying jobs. Because we believe we're creating
our own damn jobs," Beruff says, calling Obamacare a "disaster" as he bashes the "culture of dependency on government," which he blames on President Obama. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac3313b6cad870ed723533005fa819039f06131dd516d2e7e6

- Watch the video: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac04ee77218198b2e1a0fe18ae224b1a8ef2936af88f21c9b9

Cortez Masto becomes the latest Democrat to object to Obama's Gitmo plan: Catherine Cortez Masto became the latest Democratic Senate candidate to refuse to support President Barack Obama's plan to close the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay. "As Nevada's Attorney General, keeping our citizens safe was my top priority," Cortez Masto, who's facing a competitive race of the open seat in Nevada, said in a statement. "That's why I cannot support President Obama's plan to close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp that could lead to detainees - including the mastermind behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks - being transferred to American soil."

- Cortez Masto isn't the only Democratic Senate candidate breaking ranks in response to Obama's plan. In New Hampshire, Gov. Maggie Hassan, another battleground-state Democrat running against Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, said she is "skeptical" of Obama's plans and whether they would adequately ensure national security, WMUR reported. Democrats' candidate in Missouri, Jason Kander, has also spoken out against it. And n Colorado, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet got ahead of the White House announcement, releasing a statement rejecting a plan to send prisoners to his state, even though he has voted in favor of closing the detention facility.

** A message from Katz Radio Group: WANT TO INFLUENCE VOTERS? NO ONE ELSE COMES CLOSE. Katz Radio Group is your one-stop media partner reaching more than 3,000 radio stations in every market across the nation. Let Katz Radio Group give you the local targeting abilities you need to effectively deliver your message to voters.
Contact: Patrick.McGee@katzradiogroup.com **

AD 'EM UP - One Nation nonprofit launches TV ads backing Toomey: One Nation, the Senate-focused conservative nonprofit run by former Mitch McConnell aide Steven Law, has placed a $1 million TV ad buy backing GOP Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, starting Thursday. The positive spot, which will air in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and other broadcast and cable markets statewide, touts Toomey's push for background checks for school employees. "Tell Senator Toomey to keep fighting for our children and safe schools," the narrator says over images of schoolchildren onscreen. The spot echoes the theme Toomey's own campaign pushed in a short TV ad run last year. One Nation has already spent millions of
dollars backing other Republicans in 2016 Senate races, including Sens. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Roy Blunt of Missouri, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Richard Shelby of Alabama, as well as Rep. Joe Heck, who's running for the open Senate seat in Nevada.

- Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bacfe7b6fd6c195c31f0ab8ff0bd66dd637c662446562ae1e10

VOTERS ARE VOTING - Your daily reminder that voting in Florida's presidential primary is going on now, even though Election Day is March 15, via POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: More than 415,000 people cast absentee ballots in Florida, 222,000 by Republicans and 194,000 by Democrats. There are more registered Democrats in Florida, but they tend to vote in heavier numbers during in-person early voting before Election Day. Republicans generally prefer absentee ballots, relatively speaking. With Marco Rubio battling to win his home state (a loss to Donald Trump or anyone else here would be devastating to the senator), the Republican ballots are more notable. Expect as many as 2 million GOP
ballots to be cast in total (in 2012, GOP turnout was about 1.7 million). Because the absentee ballots are opened and tallied on Election Day, we have no idea who's winning right now - and there's no good Florida polling to give us much of an indication.

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PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "RNC sees leverage over Trump," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss: "Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus has begun stating in private meetings that the party has sway over its at-times unwelcome front-runner because it has tools [that Donald] Trump will need to use to win a general election - voter data and field, digital and media operations that a nominee typically inherits from the party infrastructure. Dangling access to these resources, Priebus thinks he can help steer Trump toward party-wide policy goals and away from the inflammatory rhetoric that Republican officials see as divisive and dangerous, especially outside of the primary, according to
two Republican sources who have spoken with the RNC chair." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bacdc020efb5a21543d0707f42be55877219f3f61ac731b6b29

- "Trump-mentum smacks Capitol Hill in the face," by POLITICO's Lauren French and John Bresnahan: "Reps. Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California became the first sitting Republicans to endorse Trump, now the undisputed front-runner for the nomination after his victory in the Nevada caucuses Tuesday. Collins had been a Jeb Bush backer before the Florida governor dropped out. 'One thing I can speak with some confidence about is that Donald Trump will put together the best Cabinet you've ever seen in the United States of America,' Collins said in an interview. 'He will appoint the best and brightest to each of those key positions because that's what a private sector guy
does.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac350e85f5ec1fd8ba6f4d8a4c994079c7170fb34abaabef0e

- "Republican race puts Donald Trump and Paul Ryan on collision course," by The New York Times' Jennifer Steinhauer: House Speaker Paul Ryan "has one goal for this year: to form a conservative policy agenda for the Republican presidential nominee to embrace. If that nominee is Donald J. Trump, that may be a waste of time. ... On nearly every significant issue, Mr. Trump stands in opposition to Republican orthodoxy and his party's policy prescriptions - the very ideas that Mr. Ryan has done more than anyone else to form, refine or promote over the last decade." Among the issues on which Trump and Ryan disagree: trade, entitlement programs, immigration and Israel.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac722b592e46d203cecaff0d7bff51b929c1119ad655fb892b

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I will never vote for Donald Trump, not even if Ronald Reagan and William F. Buckley rise from the grave and beg me to support him." - Rick Wilson, a GOP consultant who outlined the many, many reason he won't support Trump in an op-ed. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=08c1bdc41fff3bac4addad742c34a6c8ee072dc5158a6b337261c849d44fc8c8

** A message from Katz Radio Group: Don't Talk To The Right People At The Wrong Time

An In-Time Insight brought to you by Stacey Schulman, EVP Strategy, Analytics & Research for Katz Radio Group

Targeting is great, except when you're not in the mood. Traditional Radio is already a highly-targeted medium and "Opportunity Voters" in Colorado, Texas and Virginia prefer it to Pandora for receiving political messages 5:1. How do we know that?

Katz Radio Group is developing In-Time Insights during the Primary Season with its "The Local Vote 2016" research initiative. We've commissioned Nielsen to survey a representative sample of registered voters across 10 states in the weeks leading up to their Presidential primaries. Voter sentiments are then linked back to these respondents' local Scarborough data, demographic profiles and media consumption patterns.

In our first wave of data we learned that between 31 and 33% of voters in Colorado, Texas and Virginia have yet to decide on a candidate (undecided) or are not sure if they are voting (turnout targets). Together, we're calling these folks "The Opportunity Vote".
Want to know more?: Stacey.Schulman@katzmediagroup.com **

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