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By Kevin Robillard | 02/18/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Scott Bland

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

THE KICKOFF - Chamber goes up in two Alabama races ahead of March 1 primaries: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is airing ads on behalf of Reps. Bradley Byrne and Martha Roby. Both 30-second spots, which will begin airing today, focus on praising the incumbents as solid conservatives as they face primary challengers on March 1. Watch Byrne's spot here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c9353de8c0f423997b2cdcec618727043a00b8f48f0ff3d734b67 And Roby's spot here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c935367a67980ad804f520f455228140dbf0f28690b541be43b89

- The U.S. Chamber endorsed GOP Rep. David Joyce in OH-14 yesterday, ahead of his March 15 primary, and today the Chamber will endorse GOP Rep. John Shimkus, who faces a Club for Growth-endorsed challenger in IL-15. Shimkus has hit the airwaves in that primary with a negative spot slamming state Sen. Kyle McCarter as part of the "Springfield machine" who is backed by "Washington insiders." See the spot, which only briefly touts Shimkus, here: bit.ly/1To4Frv

HOOSIER SHOWDOWN - What to expect at Rep. Todd Young's hearing to stay on the Indiana Senate ballot, via Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c9353981a5072857d81e517cc4aceed31f33d1521855c0cda45d1

- FIRST IN SCORE: YOUNG CONTINUES PUSHBACK - If Young stays on the ballot, his campaign will not let this controversy go quietly into the night. The campaign released their second web ad this week on the topic. "Some Hoosiers like Chicago-style pizza," a narrator intones over footage of pizza dough being rolled and toppings being added. "But nobody likes Chicago-style politics," he says as a shot of the Chicago skyline and President Barack Obama appears. The spot accuses GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman of using "dirty tricks" against Young and features a side-by-side shot of the president and Stutzman. Watch it here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c935321082b102ee68b3beea8e286b33765b04cae0d78901c36dc

SUPREME DOLLARS - Parties raise money off SCOTUS fight: The fight over whether President Barack Obama will get to appoint another Supreme Court Justice before the end of his term hit the inboxes of small donors everywhere on Tuesday. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell penned a missive for the NRSC, while the DSCC asked donors t "show the GOP that Democrats won't take their obstruction lying down." Nevada Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto said her race was now a "battle for the future of the Supreme Court" in a fundraising letter. Florida Democrat Patrick Murphy declared: "Nothing less than the future of the Supreme Court is on the line."

- Even House candidates join in: Most of the focus on how the Supreme Court vacancy would impact down-ballot races has focused on the Senate since, after all, only senators have a say. But Democratic House nominees clearly see it as a winning issue, as well. Former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey is airing a radio ad in Maryland's 4th District, where he was one of three Democrats competing to replace Rep. Donna Edwards. "Now they're telling President Obama that he can't even nominate a justice to the Supreme Court," Ivey says in the ad. "They want a right wing Supreme Court to help them overturn Obamacare and eliminate affirmative action." Listen to the spot here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c93538c98f25609aa4c354a947facb5e0dfb0042eb4b0e06080ca

- POLITICO's Josh Gerstein writes on how Scalia's death could alter election law: "A new justice nominated by President Barack Obama and confirmed by the Senate would almost certainly shift the court in the direction of stricter voting rights enforcement and a greater willingness to take account of race when considering redistricting and election law matters. But the more likely scenario in the near-term - deadlock over Scalia's replacement - could have a similar effect by leaving the court less likely to come up with five votes to set precedent on such issues and to issue emergency stays in challenges to last-minute voter ID and election-law changes coming up from lower courts."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c9353c312d96fef719dda403305dd140ead9c589522fcbdb48cf3

Days until the South Carolina Republican primary and Nevada Democratic caucuses: 3. Days until the 2016 election: 265.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally photos of famous bridges: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

MAPMAKER, MAPMAKER - North Carolina Republicans draw new 10-3 congressional map: The newly compact districts could shift several members around even while preserving the GOP's partisan advantage in the delegation, the Raleigh News and Observer reports. GOP Rep. George Holding's 13th District and Democratic Rep. Alma Adams' 12th District would move far from their respective bases. GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers' 2nd District moves from west of Raleigh to east of it. Nearly every district would see a major population shift, if not necessarily a partisan one. bit.ly/1To56C1

- Next steps: The legislature will meet in special session this week to approve the maps. The court that ordered new maps be drawn also has to approve the lines as well. (Democrats castigated the new map as gerrymandered Wednesday.)

2018 NRSC CHAIR BATTLE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE - Morning Consult's Reid Wilson reports two freshmen senators - Thom Tillis and Cory Gardner - are the early frontrunners. Both "have both put out feelers about running the NRSC next year, according to half a dozen aides and lobbyists close to the Senate Republican Conference. While other senators are said to be in the mix - notably Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) - Gardner and Tillis, the sources said, have been by far the most active in cultivating fellow Republicans. ... Tillis, the one-time speaker of the North Carolina state House, has run a campaign arm before, when he helped Republicans recapture the chamber in 2010.
Gardner mounted what some consider the best campaign a Republican has run in recent years." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c9353c9b76faa4732f33d6292d46af75562234483edc3d094fa71

THE GLOSSY TREATMENT - Jason Zengerle profiles GOP consultant Rex Elsass in GQ, dubbing him "The Most Powerful Man in the GOP (And You've Never Heard Of Him)," while the piece's URL refers to him as "the secret wizard of the far right." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c93537db6d1fec9f1bc9399ede6ffc3a086cc62185809f2eff480

POLL: VOTERS IN SENATE STATES BACK CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM - The U.S. Justice Action Network released a poll Wednesday showing majority support for a wide range of criminal justice reforms in six states with competitive Senate elections in 2016: Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Kentucky, Missouri and Wisconsin. Voters thought too many non-violent criminals were in prison, that the federal government spent too much money on prisons and that the main goal of prison should be rehabilitation. The group noted it briefed both the DSCC and NRSC on the results of the poll, which was conducted by The Tarrance Group. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c9353632a1c59b7782eab461719f654e6c1e981d7b0950f10dcc3

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Bush struggles to mask mounting frustration," by Eli Stokols in Summersville, S.C.: "Fighting for his political life in the final days of this primary battle, Bush took the stage intent on showing toughness and drawing a sharp contrast between himself and Marco Rubio. Just moments earlier, he'd gotten devastating news: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, whose endorsement he'd sought, was backing Rubio, who poses the biggest threat to his own chances of political survival. ... During the question and answer period following an unusually hot-tempered 30-minute rendition of his stump speech, Bush received unsolicited advice from three audience members in succession,
each encouraging him to be tougher. It did not improve his mood." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c935308fbc20275dc352fd709faaf0ff2cbca3d4e412612b98421

- "Carson's 'anything but last' aspirations," by Kyle Cheney in Gaffney, S.C.: "These are bleak times for Carson. Faced with the prospect of a poor finish in socially conservative, deeply Christian South Carolina, the socially conservative, deeply Christian candidate is working to set the lowest bar possible for declaring victory. To score a good result, his campaign says, Carson doesn't need to win. He doesn't even need to place second in the six-candidate field. Or third. Or fourth. 'If Dr. Carson does not place last in South Carolina, it's only upwards and forwards for him,' said Armstrong Williams, a close Carson confidant and adviser." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c935381b022cf1a455225be620b5e1b3da077c747728a482d8e02

- OUTLIER OR MAJOR SHIFT? You decide - POLITICO's Nick Gass on the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday: "Ted Cruz has eclipsed Donald Trump in a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of Republican primary voters out Wednesday, marking a significant reversal from recent weeks of surveys. Cruz is the first choice of 28 percent of Republican primary voters surveyed between Sunday and Tuesday, in the first national poll conducted entirely following the most recent debate in South Carolina. Trump fell seven points from the last NBC/WSJ poll, from 33 percent in mid-January to 26 percent in the latest results. Though he trails Cruz by 2 points, well within the margin of
error, Wednesday's poll is the first time Trump has not come out on top since October." A multitude of other statewide and national polls still have Trump on top, however. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fe304436889c9353155ef29d32eb3d5f8fcea5ae28fb3f428c3c6b59dcaaecf7

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "No, I've never been to a rave. It's a Republican primary, Anderson!" - EDM fan Marco Rubio during CNN's South Carolina town hall on Wednesday night.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: The race for influence in the 2016 election cycle is gaining speed. Everyone is looking to reach as big of an audience as possible and get significant portions of that audience motivated and educated enough to vote and mobilize probable supporters. As the pace quickens, more will be trying to find an edge to influence voters their way. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions, Sinclair
Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is the bottom line - winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673. **

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