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Keep meaning to talk to you both about where we are with IPS. See below. I have been trying to get Michael and Curt to focus on developing a "product" we can sell. Thad has been the biggest impediment to developing something but the below seems to be something that is easy to do and would accurately reflect the IPS technology - similar to the "heat map" Hunter likes. I told Michael I'd work with him and Curt to get something together by Sept 1 and we can actually have a tangible product to show people that is indicative of what IPS is capable of. Can discuss more with both of you later.

Eric D. Schwerin
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Michael Andrews <mandrews@ips.edu>
> Date: July 12, 2011 2:22:42 PM EDT
> To: Eric Schwerin <eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com>
> Subject: Time Series
>

> Eric- Thanks for the meeting yesterday. It was useful. I wanted to provide a little more on the time series idea that Curt is pushing. I think it is a good idea and much like a graphic depicting move of the Dow over a year we can do an time series that will show trends over time, cyclicality or periodicity; randomness or noise level (activity that is not necessarily important or useful.
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> The benefit of the time series is that it permits you to view political trends and cycles that permit a better understanding of what present data may indicate in the future. For instance, if we track the political elite of the 17 Euro countries (EU members utilizing the Euro or the 23 countries that use the Euro (6 are not members but they are small - Vatican City, Andora, Monaco, Kosovo, San Marino, Malta) to view how they would address the debt crisis focused on the PIIGS then we can find signals that will indicate a likely action in the future.As you recall Curt did do one (Brief though it was)in the run up to the first Greek bailout.
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> Of the three things we discussed this one has most salience since it is the most developed and usable. We can discuss whether as part of a presentation that we show the time series and provide a brief explanation of the time series and a verbal description of the material that expands to a level that might include a longer deeper analysis. Let me know what you think would be most effective approach to presenting to prospective customers.
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> The other two approaches : analysis of stability of the political system (circulation of political elites, spectral charts) though useful will require wider usage to determine their level of effectiveness. We believe they work in the projects we have used them but they have not been as deeply developed as the time series.
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> The other is what we describe as the characterization of political elites and their place in the larger system. We believe this is useful as well but Curt and Ronnie continue to press for deeper development of the product.
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> Do not hold me to exact accuracy of these description but I wanted to see if this helps you in understanding better what we discussed yesterday.
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> Michael
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