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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ) and Emily Schultheis (
mailto:eschultheis@politico.com
eschultheis@politico.com )

Good morning from Tampa, Fla., where your Morning Score correspondent is covering day three of the Republican National Committee's summer meeting. More below on the discussion here about the primary calendar.

DRIVING THE MORNING -THE JOBS NUMBER-The day after the Dow fell more than four percent, the new jobs number posts at 8:30 a.m. ET. Recent drops have erased all the 2011 gains of the big stock indexes, and there's increasing concern we may be headed for a double digit recession. It goes without saying that this could be fatal for President Obama's reelection. Ben White writes in POLITICO's Morning Money that it is "hard to overstate how critical it is for the July jobs number this morning to come it at least close to the consensus of around 85K."

SNEAK PEEK - LABOR TO STRIKE BACK DURING RECESS - The AFL-CIO will launch a petition drive today called "America Wants to Work" for its 800,000 online activists, "urging politicians to bring the same urgency to the jobs crisis that they brought to the politically manufactured crisis over the deficit." It is part of a broader "Summer of Accountability" tour. The powerful union will have members at town hall meetings for Colorado representatives Scott Tipton and Cory Gardner on August 5 and 8, for example. At these events they will press the freshmen on GOP plans for Medicare and Social Security. Through the next month, AFL-CIO will target other town halls and fundraisers. They'll also
protest gerrymandering at redistricting hearings. 'This summer, workers are joining together to hold elected officials accountable whenever they fail to stand with working people," AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka will say on a 10 a.m. conference call, according to excerpts shared exclusively with Morning Score.

POPPING THIS MORNING - DNC HITS 2012ers FOR TEA-PARTY INSPIRED ECONIMIC PLANS - In advance of the jobs release, Democratic National Committee communications director Brad Woodhouse sends a seven-page memo to Sunday Show producers this morning that criticizes the Republican presidential candidates for not offering fresh ideas on the economy. He writes: "They are taking their cues are following the extreme policy prescriptions being insisted upon by the Tea Party dominated Republican Majority in Congress... Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and Mitt Romney have all come out in support of the goals of 'Cut, Cap, and Balance' and the Ryan budget plan." Much of the DNC memo focuses
on Romney's "flip-flopping into a pretzel" during the debt ceiling negotiations. Brad traces the timeline of Romney's approach, from refusing to say where he stood to supporting cut, cap and balance to walking it back, supporting Boehner but not his plan and finally coming out against the deal. Read the full memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c38497368c32adb0709af9a5ce5a9e50651730e2f4792b53f5efef
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c38497368c32adb0709af9a5ce5a9e50651730e2f4792b53f5efef .

***As an ex-Huntsman donor explains why he will never give him another dime, Romney signs a marriage pledge and Republicans start to think they might have a candidate who can take on Bob Casey, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

POLL OF THE DAY - ONLY 20% FAVORABLY VIEW THE TEA PARTY -The DNC's renewed push to link the leading 2012 candidates with the tea party comes as the latest New York Times/CBS poll shows that 40 percent of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the tea party. Only 20 percent view the movement favorably. "And 43 percent of Americans now think the Tea Party has too much influence on the Republican Party, up from 27 percent in mid-April." Meanwhile, a Gallup poll out yesterday found that those who identify with the tea party movement opposed the final debt deal by a 68-to-22 percent margin. The Times' A1 write-up:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c384978a0a45a115c5d683066748a5491e77011bba4e91becf4226
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c384978a0a45a115c5d683066748a5491e77011bba4e91becf4226 . The Gallup results:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c3849770f3bf5d939ed9725f70f6d6312715ea983be11646ecf87e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c3849770f3bf5d939ed9725f70f6d6312715ea983be11646ecf87e .

2012 TALKER - HUNTSMAN TAKES WEAVER'S SIDE- In response to Jonathan Martin's bombshell story yesterday on infighting and drama inside his struggling campaign (http://politi.co/pUxd7Z), Huntsman defended chief strategist John Weaver and refused to say kind words about longtime family friend David Fischer. 'John Weaver is a critically important part of our team,' the candidate told reporters in Salem, New Hampshire. 'He's our strategist, has been from day one, and he will be." The Huffington Post's Jon Ward notes: "Weaver was with Huntsman when the candidate arrived at an office park here, and stayed outside the event while Huntsman spoke, but was not in sight afterward when Huntsman took
questions."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08b80322adbe5382a82529239f1a3756a324f263ddbd7a2258
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08b80322adbe5382a82529239f1a3756a324f263ddbd7a2258

MORE HUNTSMAN FALLOUT - DONOR TURNS AGAINST HIM - One of Huntsman's top donors when he ran for governor of Utah, Overstock.com chairman and CEO Patrick Byrne, lashes out at Huntsman in a POLITICO op-ed that posted overnight. He portrays the embattled candidate as a weasel who will say anything to get support and who will buckle under backroom pressure from lobbyists. Byrne, who gave $75,000 in 2004, cites two episodes: The first is a 2005 financial services law, which he says Huntsman backed and then reversed coursed on. The second is education. Huntsman told the prominent supporter of school choice that he wanted to go down in history as "the voucher governor." Then, as governor, Byrne
says he watered down a voucher bill and would not defend it when it came under fire from teacher unions. "Campaigning for vouchers is outside my comfort zone," he says Huntsman told him. Read more:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08839ad78a31272f93b781668db1d9fb4710e9d4769a0c1855
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08839ad78a31272f93b781668db1d9fb4710e9d4769a0c1855 .

PAWLENTY CONFIDENT ABOUT AMES - 'I think we are going to do very well,' the former Minnesota governor said on Sean Hannity's Fox News show last night. 'I'm confident of that. This Ames straw poll is more an organizational exercise than it is a random poll.' As part of that effort to boost turnout, the campaign is distributing a mailer that includes what's intended to look like a note from Mary Pawlenty on her personal stationary. The Des Moines Register gets a copy: "The glossy mailer has a large, italicized quote followed by Pawlenty's minimalist signature: 'Now is the time. The hour is late...'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08194b33b0a3ac69edfc24d8b676a95d5a0fd4df33639b9f09
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08194b33b0a3ac69edfc24d8b676a95d5a0fd4df33639b9f09

GAY MARRIAGE - ROMNEY SIGNS A PLEDGE - Mitt Romney has been very careful about signing pledges this cycle, but yesterday he signed on to a pledge circulated by the National Organization for Marriage to support a federal constitutional amendment defining marriage, to appoint federal judges who don't see a constitutional right to same-sex marriage and to back the Defense of Marriage Act. He joins only two others: Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum. Ben Smith's story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c0840683ae661d935e6947216935206d513282a10e26ae9ef7a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c0840683ae661d935e6947216935206d513282a10e26ae9ef7a .

FOLLOW THE MONEY - PERRY, ROVE RIFT COULD IMPACT FUNDRAISING -There's a long-time rift between Texas Gov. Rick Perry and GOP rainmaker Karl Rove. Ken Vogel explores the potentially significant ramifications for fundraising at outside groups as Perry prepares to announce his presidential candidacy: "One person who has sent checks to both American Crossroads and Perry's campaigns predicted that if Perry wins the nomination, his donors will cut off the spigot to Rove... Campaign filings show that if even a handful of big Texas donors feel the same way, it could have a major impact. Of the $35 million in reported contributions raised by American Crossroads...about half (more than $17 million)
has come from Texas... And 11 of the biggest Texas donors to American Crossroads, a so-called super PAC, have also given Perry $4.7 million since 2001."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08bd20ba5bd684691e36d6e5ed7e213b1d266b9980e23dd666
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08bd20ba5bd684691e36d6e5ed7e213b1d266b9980e23dd666

WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE UP TO TODAY: Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Thad McCotter and Herman Cain are all in Iowa. Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson are in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is too; he's just not campaigning this week. Ron Paul is back in D.C. for his National Press Club luncheon speech, which should generate some easy earned media.

In Iowa: Pawlenty is back in Iowa for a pre-Ames swing: he'll hold meet-and-greet events in Mason City, Dyersville and Manchester; speak to the Republican Women of Black Hawk County in Waterloo; and attend the Linn County GOP fundraiser along with Cain, Gingrich, McCotter and Santorum. Bachmann will host a 'Meet me in Ames in 8 days!' event in South Newton and then head for a backyard chat in Dexter. Santorum is hosting town halls in Marshalltown, Newton and Grinnell. Gingrich is hosting a town hall in Johnston. McCotter is speaking at the Mississippi Valley Fair in Davenport.

In New Hampshire: Johnson will attend a breakfast in Derry before touring Alec's Shoes and Castro's Back Room in Nashua and Lull Farm and Hollis General Store in Hollis. Huntsman will speak to members of the Nashua Chamber of Commerce and a Portsmouth Republican Committee dinner.

CALENDAR UPDATE - RNC PUNTS ON DISCRETIONARY PUNISHMENTS UNTIL JANUARY - Your Morning Score correspondent is in Tampa for the Republican National Committee summer meeting, entering its third day. The big flashpoint here yesterday at the waterside Marriott was over how much to punish states like Florida and Arizona at next year's convention here if they schedule their primary early enough that it forces the sanctioned early to move up their primaries. They'll automatically lose half their delegates for breaking the rules, but there is some discretion about taking away perks like VIP tickets, assigning them bad hotel rooms and poor floor seats. The rules committee will take the matter up
again at the January meeting.

There is a quiet acquiescence down here that Florida will go ahead with the fifth primary but a hope that it won't force the first four to move really early. We won't have clarity on the calendar until an October 1 deadline set by the RNC. From my story: "If an official state commission established by Florida law decides to go earlier than Arizona, the domino effect could push the Iowa caucuses back into December 2011. 'The date may change, but the order won't,' said Iowa state chair Matt Strawn."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c0836cdf96c55f573dc2a9d7f9c256268588e4ac93051c68341
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c0836cdf96c55f573dc2a9d7f9c256268588e4ac93051c68341

TROUBLE IN THE SUNSHINE STATE - 61% OF INDEPENDENTS DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA - A Quinnipiac poll out Thursday spells trouble for the president. The survey found his approval rating barely budged after the debt deal, currently at 44 percent (with 51 percent disapproving). And while he would lead most GOP candidates in a general-election matchup, he'd tie Romney 44-44. The most troubling number for Obama, though, is his decline in support among independent voters. In May, his approval split 47-45. In the latest poll, independents disapprove by an almost 2-to-1 ratio (61- 33). Quinnipiac analyzes the debt ceiling results: "Florida voters approve 50 - 37 percent of the [deal], but only 2 percent say
they are enthusiastic about it; 41 percent are satisfied but not enthusiastic; 36 percent are dissatisfied but not angry, while 18 percent, including 23 percent of independent voters, say they are angry." The full results:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c083c10cdc419d34793b8b806cb6568bd5dfd1718856169d101
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c083c10cdc419d34793b8b806cb6568bd5dfd1718856169d101 .

SPEAKING OF FLORIDA - HUNTSMAN WILL ATTEND CPAC - The American Conservative Union also announced yesterday that Huntsman will speak at the special Conservative Political Action Conference in Florida on September 23. The other declared candidates already committed to participate.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08ce05088adbdf46a0b22b3cc6d27e1d9e926cdc5cb2ef0a8d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08ce05088adbdf46a0b22b3cc6d27e1d9e926cdc5cb2ef0a8d

DEBT FALLOUT - A POX ON BOTH YOUR HOUSES - In the wake of the debt ceiling fight, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll finds disapproval of Congress at its highest level on record. The NYT: "A record 82 percent of Americans now disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job - the most since The Times first began asking the question in 1977, and even more than after another political stalemate led to a shutdown of the federal government in 1995." It's hard to say either party won: 72% disapproved of the GOP's handling of negotiations, but 66% disapproved of the Democrats handling. For Obama, 47 percent disapproved of the way he handled negotiations (46 percent approved). The Times' A1
write-up:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c384978a0a45a115c5d683066748a5491e77011bba4e91becf4226
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532d70ce20c384978a0a45a115c5d683066748a5491e77011bba4e91becf4226 . The 14-page results document:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08c67e610ce5268b5f9b42f3d9b7d95fe0d8b2c4181fa38f2f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c08c67e610ce5268b5f9b42f3d9b7d95fe0d8b2c4181fa38f2f .

PENNSYLVANIA SENATE - A CREDIBLE CHALLENGER TO CASEY? - Republicans have been searching for someone good to take on freshman Sen. Bob Casey next year. Dan Hirschhorn scoops that wealthy businessman Steve Welch met with National Republican Senatorial Committee officials this week in Washington. "People familiar with his thinking say Welch is considering a run more seriously than when GOPers first tried to recruit him earlier in the year...should Welch decide to run, the GOP would have a legitimate candidate in the race, though he'd still likely start as an underdog without any widespread name ID...Fiscally focused, telegenic and from the vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs, Welch is the rare
breed of Republican who can still win statewide races during presidential cycles."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c0809d50b8c0a3b75c829518bfe5337160633fd07fcf29606e9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6e1e419e3fc03c0809d50b8c0a3b75c829518bfe5337160633fd07fcf29606e9

WU SPECIAL -- THE RACE IS ON - Less than 24 hours after David Wu resigned from his House seat in Oregon's 1st district, two candidates are already publicly vying for his seat. State Sen. Suzanne Bonamici told Roll Call that she's in - launching a website last week and announcing several endorsements. State Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian and state Rep. Brad Witt are also expected to enter the race for the Democratic nomination. Republican Rob Cornilles, who lost against Wu in 2010, officially got in yesterday too.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=11bed30da608a4820d6b3662836e22c6610409a11b09ce5c3022a2a647010d5e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=11bed30da608a4820d6b3662836e22c6610409a11b09ce5c3022a2a647010d5e

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This song is how I feel about @BarackObama lately. Enjoy.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=11bed30da608a4824f3f930f8c49223b008ef831353f2ebe6fbdba004bab119f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=11bed30da608a4824f3f930f8c49223b008ef831353f2ebe6fbdba004bab119f " - comedian Sarah Silverman, tweeting a link to the song "Trying My Best to Love You" and demonstrating liberal dissatisfaction with the president.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=11bed30da608a48217c6b21516685519d1ee208486440428a538287890f09782
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=11bed30da608a48217c6b21516685519d1ee208486440428a538287890f09782

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