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Karben Copy:
Lowey Could Lose, Suburbs Desert Cuomo for GOP

Election Day is a week away and New York's Democrats are scrambling to avert an
embarrassing rout in the New York City suburbs. Meanwhile, in a sleeper race, 13-term
veteran Congresswoman Nita Lowey is the fight of her political life [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtaRJfAVEZWy3f66UI_l1NekaU9OA7H8HjOEvXvPi1I_Xg0oEIkVX9R-AkXm_U_ytsoS19ISLZiRQiAUmMZ2dhjiFXTSSL3J6Y311X6oTdTPFs3vr0dNnBzdcVs2nM-98B5TewKjj0AtKRlZTZumAsEUR_VqcpIwOZ4kuK8HFTilyHzT5WeFELLvyIBCeaoKKKlbaj1_e30N0B3HI1QS-Lmk9gdQw8QqzTSOLq3B6hG42D-qcJiKy1Id1B7eOEbEWHeaD_SvGXos97Vl75U8ALFm0aGkHZJYirQ31oPUWzIM5Y=&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==],
spending $1 million to halt the surge of her Republican rival, a 29-year old Army
vet who only spent $10,000 on his campaign last month.

My column [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtaRJfAVEZWy3f66UI_l1NekaU9OA7H8HjOEvXvPi1I_Xg0oEIkVX9R-AkXm_U_ytsoS19ISLZiRQiAUmMZ2dhjiFXTSSL3J6Y311X6oTdTPFs3vr0dNnBzdcVs2nM-98B5TewKjj0AtKRlZTZumAsEUR_VqcpIwOZ4kuK8HFTilyHzT5WeFELLvyIBCeaoKKKlbaj1_e30N0B3HI1QS-Lmk9gdQw8QqzTSOLq3B6hG42D-qcJiKy1Id1B7eOEbEWHeaD_SvGXos97Vl75U8ALFm0aGkHZJYirQ31oPUWzIM5Y=&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==]
today:


* Cuomo could lose his home county of Westchester: "Money certainly isn't buying
happiness for affluent suburban voters- and their discontent may be enough to allow
Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtaEanXRPNV284rDzOc6vU-MeFf1DGc6Ace62XIjpg9E_gMWXiosmtlIEaAq4NAiJg-VuhOkupyED4YxgrIFvqge0BeVm5xOxspHrYPCmHFU6GO6PUF4uuf73THFsR0H-J5Yw_nTtqTlHCkJRSAF7yEKKN2CLDIbbwShXXN22_y_1a0zA4vBmpXhgqxdfqMnuSCkGDNnz6VBiNi9D0J58Ru3R2S5h2L-vqD&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==]
to deliver an embarrassing loss to Cuomo in Westchester County, where Astorino is
the current chief executive and Cuomo lives. Cuomo carried Westchester with 66%
of the vote in 2010.

69% of suburban voters think the United States is going in the wrong direction and
suburbanites are gloomy about New York too. Last week, Siena reported that voters
in the suburbs now believe the state is headed in the wrong direction [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtazWXWXIlLrke3QZRXsXMmlf491shxz38PJfnzoKN_f4m_TD_Sw93h4CJ4DBW8TmecGicsGi1HyHtPjwT6uay4IWrrLQuyMFGheDuQFAEhtQtG9qh18X9KLVadAN029pXAY0nC3lUNr3yww8FeF55zkdZOY-2eVRjv18iqaGv9VqKHNXKK9opdx3eSNy-hqjyLq7T60rooD76dlWcOqlAPO_ukl-A-OOlh66oXH44StFC9n5tyzAqxKnKFy2IipYQaThaQyVw8E9u50BR00RAN-g==&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==]
by a margin of 53 to 40, an 18 point reveral from just a month ago.

Intensifying suburban discontent is lifting Astorino's suburban support. Astorino
now edges out Cuomo by 2 points in the suburbs (46-44) after trailing him in the
region by 19 points (33-52) in September.

Read more.... [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtaRJfAVEZWy3f66UI_l1NekaU9OA7H8HjOEvXvPi1I_Xg0oEIkVX9R-AkXm_U_ytsoS19ISLZiRQiAUmMZ2dhjiFXTSSL3J6Y311X6oTdTPFs3vr0dNnBzdcVs2nM-98B5TewKjj0AtKRlZTZumAsEUR_VqcpIwOZ4kuK8HFTilyHzT5WeFELLvyIBCeaoKKKlbaj1_e30N0B3HI1QS-Lmk9gdQw8QqzTSOLq3B6hG42D-qcJiKy1Id1B7eOEbEWHeaD_SvGXos97Vl75U8ALFm0aGkHZJYirQ31oPUWzIM5Y=&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==]


* Nita Lowey is struggling for re-election: "Since an August poll showed support
for her re-election to be Pillsbury-dough boy soft, Lowey opened the spending floodgates
in an all out effort to save her political hide. Lowey is on track to spend over
$1 million in just three months- an unheard of sum for a longtime incumbent in
a district with 2:1 partisan advantage. Lowey even pulled Hillary Clinton off of
a national fundraising tour for embattled Democrats [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtaW-qUJBPPh2AyHXsxSCOb9_5H0nVvpq7NGvYEA80WBdd2-l6ZASM38iSzaXWL80UA7A4XR3xrKNhU4hUMfwC8IGhlej2nGEVhaczMVuxLca2-XKEIziuhqgxGpCR-hCx-zSF2Rha8qX4fDT8VEwv8s5JTvt9elq7qMsS9nK5PGF4IFyvvZo4huyBTV7t73pSOQcQUngeJmH5JZELChD91Pgd_QgkvF051HmIfN0ihjqzqpY-7CUr89TE77qlZ1l030LFPkflKlo04_fKNbFDtddNkhnEuv8pw_9DjcXwL01L7_oXXS6ifFvYWSUbA1WL9&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==]for
a Manhattan fundraiser.

Last week, her campaign launched a direct mail assault on her Republican rival,
29-year old Army vet and Yale grad Chris Day [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtaC_ve20fg6cDdOW5hUCF7dd6EcFE25LnX9QntNVyuoQGYhJCE3vBT3OFDbKbi19CC4xBNlCiCj9_bAFvXkCX29xrDO_c7OlxLPo9_Hf7-2kk65ilRIbDUt6HqvOI12snfd4uqjwZ9kweFMqGaaSEkF4ADI2OhShdp9OkUxueWUCTH6pkJET0RK2F3MTZ-r65bZIg1OYYs4AfB2nvaEO0hBw==&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==],
who has never held elective office and can't afford any campaign mailings. The literature
smelled like a combination of fresh ink and desperation.

Lowey still has a loyal following in Westchester, despite the strong Republican
vote that will be pulled out there by Astorino's gubernatorial campaign. And Hasidic
leaders in Rockland are giving her a reluctant blessing because of their dislike
for her rival and his father Ed, who was elected Rockland County Executive last
year on platform opposing that community's growth.

Lowey should win. But after this year's bruising campaign, it's likely her next
term will be her last.

Read more.... [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMgtPDjyETdtaRJfAVEZWy3f66UI_l1NekaU9OA7H8HjOEvXvPi1I_Xg0oEIkVX9R-AkXm_U_ytsoS19ISLZiRQiAUmMZ2dhjiFXTSSL3J6Y311X6oTdTPFs3vr0dNnBzdcVs2nM-98B5TewKjj0AtKRlZTZumAsEUR_VqcpIwOZ4kuK8HFTilyHzT5WeFELLvyIBCeaoKKKlbaj1_e30N0B3HI1QS-Lmk9gdQw8QqzTSOLq3B6hG42D-qcJiKy1Id1B7eOEbEWHeaD_SvGXos97Vl75U8ALFm0aGkHZJYirQ31oPUWzIM5Y=&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==]

As always, I invite your thoughts.

Best,
Ryan

P.S. Check out the totally overhauled ryankarben.com [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00152k_ItggsVKW7gmEx8i3q6YVIuYtPVrlU0KYCKg45aX9Cf597VldMkaYwuyNW3jPCz1To4qw9yZD7yGZEvx74W5-fhCzyksPVCf3fY4ytPCs_QaCvVPQHsIGO6rY2cKARQqEo6YvSPsAcBjqHcs6Z9Xj2FVY_E1QsCdNVMKYkE_ELWA8aVPeullEchRPI5a07kabvJBv0_c-R-LvSqRd1N_d7cAccYaCEC3gyw9zb72v1vSCO-rLVaHY1ju8C3jxbInwDuErB3ydUwQuW3rcdH6PXIWIxmH7&c=Rsvvqp2NPWOJ92pz-HULqqdDiz3h3xJNay8WNQrFnhdaN89unp2LZA==&ch=Hp81fhQORvscPFKjPT1Jf3aYCGdPkT2CBmskioMg_Z_rahqjWA5Gjg==].
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