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Washington Update
October 31, 2014
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Report from Washington: 2014 Midterm Elections Outlook

Republicans remain in a favorable position heading into the midterm election on
Tuesday, but the outlook is unsettled amid unusually low voter interest, high dissatisfaction
with leaders in Washington and a reordering of issues on voters' minds. Voters'
excitement about the campaign hasn't increased as Election Day approaches, defying
the trend in recent years. The share of voters who see the country on the wrong
track has reached the highest level ever in a midterm-election year. And an election
that once was thought to hinge on health care and other domestic issues is increasingly
shadowed by international crises that weren't on the radar just a few months ago.

It is widely predicted Republicans will make gains in both the House and Senate.
The slight preference for a GOP Congress comes amid continued low job-approval
ratings for President Barack Obama. But the GOP advantage is narrower than the 50%-to-43%
edge the Republicans enjoyed at this point before the 2010 wave that gave them a
majority in the House. It seems the voters continue to have a negative impressions
of the GOP-a level substantially higher than in September and close to the record
registered during last fall's government shutdown.

With Republicans certain to gain House seats on Tuesday - the only real question
is how many. House Democrats are bracing for the possibility that Election Night
could be uglier than they originally thought. The DCCC has been forced to shift
more and more resources to playing defense in Democratic-leaning districts, and
several seats that looked in good shape a few months ago are now looking more precarious.
Outlooks show a GOP gain of six to 12 seats. There are 19 Democratic seats and
just seven Republican seats that polls show are too close to call. If Republicans
were to pick up 13 seats, they would win their largest majority since 1928, when
Herbert Hoover was elected president.

The real battle for majority control continues to lie in the Senate. At this point,
there are 10 races that remain up for grabs- seven Democratic-held seats and three
seats held by Republicans. The seven Democratic seats include: Sens. Mark Begich
(AK), Mark Pryor (AR), Mark Udall (CO), Mary Landrieu (LA), Jeanne Shaheen (NH),
and Kay Hagan (NC), plus the open seat in Iowa. If Republicans were to sweep Alaska,
Arkansas and Louisiana, the three states Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney
carried in 2012, there is the majority, providing that they don't lose any of their
own seats. The next targets are Colorado and Iowa where Republicans nominated very
strong candidates in Representative Cory Gardner and State Senator Joni Ernst. Both
have slight leads in recent polling, but these are states with historically strong
Democratic ground games that President Obama won in 2008 and 2012. In many ways,
Colorado and Iowa, and to a lesser extent, North Carolina, represent Democrats'
fire wall; Republicans will have a hard time getting to 51 seats if Democrats are
able to hold on to two or all three of these seats. In addition, in New Hampshire
and North Carolina, Democratic incumbents in both states have run very solid campaigns
and face Republican opponents who carry some baggage into the race. Both states
have relatively early poll closing times, so Democrats lose one or both of these,
it might be a sign that they are headed for a tough night.

Then there are the three vulnerable Republicans-held seats: the open seat in Georgia
and Sens. Pat Roberts in Kansas and Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Kentucky is the
least vulnerable of the three. McConnell has established a pretty stable lead of
four to five points. It seems unlikely that Republicans lose both Georgia and Kansas,
but it is possible. Assuming that they lose one of these states then they would
have to win Colorado or Iowa. If the GOP loses both races, they would have to win
two of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina. This would be a much more
difficult task that could cause Republicans to fall short of the majority by a seat
or two.

Democrats are hopeful that their ground game is going to save their majority. They
know exactly how many of these voters they need in each competitive race. Building
on the technology and organization that the Obama campaign used so successfully
to engineer its victory in 2012, Senate Democratic strategists hope to do the same
in Senate races. But, Democrats' efforts aren't happening in a vacuum. Republicans
are also working to get their voters to the polls. After 2012, the GOP is changing
its approach to its ground game and utilizing some of the tools Democrats are using.
The general feeling, though, is that they still have some catching up to do. While
their ground game may well cut into Democrats' effort, it is unlikely to trump it
in any state.

However, we may not know which party is in the majority until weeks after the election
due to an expected run-off in Louisiana in December, the possibility of a run-off
in Georgia in January, and a victory by independent Greg Orman in Kansas. Orman
has not said which party he will caucus with and will not make his intentions known
until after the Louisiana run-off if that race decides the majority. So, while there
is a chance we may know which party is in the majority when the race in Alaska is
called at some point on Wednesday, it is equally possible that the majority won't
be clear until after the run-off in Louisiana or even a run-off in Georgia. Plus,
given how close nine races are, it wouldn't be a stretch to think that one or two
could be headed to recounts.

With the national political environment and a Senate race map that favors Republicans,
it's not hard to see how they get the six seats they need to win the majority. At
the same time, the known unknowns like run-offs and the Democrats' ground game,
make it easy to see how they could fall just short. Overall, it seems likely that
Republicans will get to 51 seats. Anything beyond that is very difficult, but not
impossible if a bit of a wave develops in a couple of states.

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R. Hunter Biden
Rosemont Seneca Partners
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This email was sent to hbiden@rosemontseneca.com by jpeugh@rosemontseneca.com.

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