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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


BREAKING FROM BUFFALO - "Hochul gains odds-defying victory" - The Buffalo News: "Kathleen Courtney Hochul, the Erie County clerk and longtime Democratic figure who defied political experts who had given her little chance of success, ground out a stunning and surprisingly comfortable victory Tuesday in the special election for the House seat in the predominantly Republican 26th Congressional District. Hochul defeated Republican Jane L. Corwin, a Clarence assemblywoman, 47 percent to 43 percent, with 97 percent of election districts reporting, while the Tea Party's Jack Davis mustered only 9 percent in his fourth try for the seat. Ian L. Murphy of the Green Party recorded 1 percent, while overall turnout was about 25 percent. The results marked a stunning defeat for the GOP in a contest that garnered intense national attention as the first competitive race following the Republican takeover of the House in last November's elections." http://bit.ly/lL5tO9


A STAR IS BORN - MEET REP. HOCHUL - POLITICO's James Hohmann reports from the victory party: "The crowd chanted 'Medicare' over and over. In a 14-minute speech, Hochul drove home the centerpiece of her campaign: protecting entitlements ... She received loud cheers as she called for closing corporate loopholes that send jobs overseas, 'ending government handouts to Big Oil,' and 'making millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share.' 'We can do all that and not decimate Medicare,' she said. Hochul didn't use the word Democrat during her speech. No national Democrats appeared with her at the celebration. After winning election in a district where Republicans have a 6-point registration advantage, she promised to bridge the aisle." http://politi.co/iWk2pf


DCCC SWATS SPOILER TALK - Jennifer Crider emails, under the subject line: "Davis wasn't a factor": "Hochul got approximately 48%. With 48% of the vote, Hochul would almost certainly have won a two way race. (Davis was under 8%, so many of the potential third candidate voters just didn't vote.) Even in a 3-way race, Hochul's performance exceeded Obama's performance and Democratic performance in the district."


HOW THE GOP COULD HAVE WON - One of the smartest Republicans we know emails: "What this race crystallized is that whether we like it or not, Medicare will define 2012. Swing-district Republicans should embrace that inevitability and use their cash advantage to demagogue this issue earlier and heavier than the other side. From day one, our members need to be attacking their challenger for supporting the president's Medicare-cutting healthcare bill and his plan to ration benefits for future seniors. Paul Ryan was wrong; leaders don't change polls - scaring seniors changes polls, and we had better be prepared to do it as shamelessly as they did in this special if we want to retain the majority."


AND FROM ACROSS THE POND - @BarackObama tweets: "Congratulations to Congresswoman-elect Kathy Hochul for her victory tonight in New York's 26th Congressional District." Vice President Biden called Hochul last night to congratulate her, spokesman Fabien Levy told Score. http://bit.ly/ma4ES1


As Mitt Romney does Jacksonville, George Pataki re-catches 2012 fever and Sarah Palin plans a really big show, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


THE 2012 CALENDAR - TROUBLE IN LOUISIANA: Getting cute with the 2012 calendar isn't just for Florida anymore. Louisiana Republicans plan to move up their caucuses, claiming a date as early as late January. Jmart scoops: "The Louisiana Republican Party voted last weekend to move up their presidential caucuses to earlier in 2012, a move that could attract more GOP candidates to the state this year ... 'Louisiana wants to go early and make an impact,' said Charlie Davis, a state central committee member and former deputy chair of the state party. 'So if anything happens and states start moving up, so will we.' To stay within RNC rules and out of the early-state window, the Louisiana GOP has set up a two-step process for picking presidential delegates. The winter caucuses will elect 25 delegates per congressional district ... The successful delegates will then go to an April state convention to select most of the state's national convention delegates." http://politi.co/jGKJuo


TPAW DODGES - DEMS JEER - Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has yet to take a firm stand on the Paul Ryan budget, delighting Democrats who are looking to poke holes in his straight talk-themed campaign launch. AP captured the tension during a Pawlenty visit to Florida: "Pawlenty officially entered the race Monday and assured supporters in Des Moines, Iowa, that he would tell hard truths that President Barack Obama would not ... On Medicare, Pawlenty said he would roll out a detailed plan in the coming weeks that had both similarities and differences with the voucher plan advocated by Rep. Paul Ryan ... [Florida Rep. Debbie] Wasserman Shultz, who is also chair of the Democratic National Committee, asked on Twitter: 'If president, would he sign or veto Ryan plan to end Medicare?' Pawlenty did not take a direct stand on that question, but he did say Medicare must undergo changes to become financially stable." http://apne.ws/lhIZI5


NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Pawlenty still being booked for paid speeches" - POLITICO's Maggie Haberman: "Officials at Leading Authorities, the speakers' bureau that represents the former Minnesota governor-turned-presidential candidate who's finally having his moment in the media spotlight, sent out an email late Tuesday touting Pawlenty's newly announced presidential run and offering him up as available for paid speaking gigs ... 'I'm sure you've heard by now that Tim Pawlenty has officially announced his 2012 bid for president,' read the email ... While candidates have often halted paid gigs when running, the former governor left office at the end of last year, and the paid gigs appear to be one of his major sources of income." http://politi.co/khAmE8


LEADING AUTHORITIES APOLOGIZES: In a statement from agency president Mark French: "The timing of our message promoting him for speeches was unfortunate and not approved by the Pawlenty campaign. We sincerely regret our timing and wish Gov. Pawlenty success in his campaign for president. Leading Authorities continues to be one of Gov. Pawlenty's most enthusiastic supporters and we are proud to represent him." http://politi.co/lGbB2V


COMING ATTRACTIONS - PALIN PREMIERE IN IOWA - A "two-hour-long, sweeping epic" film about Sarah Palin is coming soon to Iowa, Real Clear Politics reports. The film is produced by conservative filmmaker Stephen Bannon and essentially commissioned by Palin herself: "When it premieres in Iowa next month, the film is poised to serve as a galvanizing prelude to Palin's prospective presidential campaign ... 'This film is a call to action for a campaign like 1976: Reagan vs. the establishment,' Bannon told RealClearPolitics. 'Let's have a good old-fashioned brouhaha' ... RealClearPolitics was recently given an exclusive screening of a rough cut of the now finished film, which Bannon designed, in part, to help catapult Palin from the presidential afterthought she has become in the eyes of many pundits directly to the front lines of the 2012 GOP conversation." http://bit.ly/k3mQHS


NON-CANDIDATE WATCH - PERRY, BASKING: Texas Gov. Rick Perry has done almost nothing to indicate that he's seriously weighing a run for president. But he doesn't seem to mind stoking the speculation, the Texas Tribune reports: "Perry declined Tuesday to rule out a White House bid during a press conference about a new anti-abortion measure. Also Tuesday, his top strategist told the Tribune that the governor is, naturally, 'thinking about it' given the flattering comments made recently by some in the GOP, although he 'doesn't see any change in his direction' ... Perry's non-denial denial is a little more significant this time because he was asked specifically if he would 'rule out' running for president ... 'I've got my focus on where it's appropriately supposed to be, and that's this legislative session,' Perry said." http://bit.ly/l5pxO0


AND ON HANNITY - LEANS IN - Perry's 2012 answer on the radio Tuesday: "I'm focused on making sure that we get a balanced budget in Texas with no new taxes. A lot of my governor friends out there are eagerly awaiting what happens here in Texas, to see if we're going to continue to be the most competitive state in the nation ..." Hannity responds: "I asked you if you're running for president and you're telling me all about Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley and you still didn't answer the question!"


BUT - COLD WATER: The Tribune also notes that Perry would have a tough time winning his home state in a GOP primary, with just 4 percent of Republicans supporting him: "The leader of the pack - and it's a narrow lead in a pack without a clear front-runner - is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, at 12 percent, followed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, at 11 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 10 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota each have the support of 7 percent." http://bit.ly/mBsZp4


A CANDIDATE A DAY ... On Monday evening it was Tim Pawlenty hitting up Florida elites for campaign cash. Yesterday it was Mitt Romney, who picked up $300,000 in Jacksonville during his latest visit to the increasingly important primary state. The Times-Union: "Organizers were hoping to raise $250,000. The event was co-chaired by U.S. Rep. Ander Crenshaw, state Sen. John Thrasher, R - St. Augustine, and Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton. 'It was a good event. We had a great turnout,' said John Rood, who is a state co-chairman." http://bit.ly/kzRQTL


PATAKI ASKS - WHY NOT ME? The former New York governor backtracked on his previous announcement that he won't run for president in 2012, declaring in New Hampshire: "We'll see what happens over the course of the next month." The Union Leader: "The governor spoke at New England College Tuesday as part of the college's ECON-101 Town Hall meeting series ... Obama, Pataki said, is failing to address the nation's debt in any serious way. He pointed to existing plans, such as the one that Obama's bipartisan committee came up with, as ways to cut spending and reduce the deficit. Pataki contrasted the administration's economic failings to his own record of success. As governor of New York, Pataki said, he inherited a $5 billion deficit and created a surplus." http://bit.ly/kv9lU2


WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE ... New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez announced his campaign for Senate Tuesday - and was immediately greeted by a terse, unsupportive statement from the woman whose coattails he rode into office last November. "It is Lt. Governor Sanchez's decision to pursue what he believes is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to run for the Senate," Gov Susana Martinez said. "However, it is my responsibility to keep my word to the people of New Mexico by pursuing the reform agenda I promised and delivering the results they deserve. To prevent this race from becoming a distraction, Lt. Governor Sanchez will not be given responsibilities in my administration beyond the select few provided for in the state Constitution." Sanchez is facing off in a GOP primary with former Rep. Heather Wilson, while Democrats have a contested primary of their own.


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I remember when she was in the auto bureau in Buffalo, she did a lot with the license plates ... She's a good one." - Jim Van Wagner, a Republican voter in NY-26, on Kathy Hochul http://nyti.ms/jeszkG

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