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EconVue Weekly Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

The world appears to careen from one source of instability to another.
The recent US employment report was better than expected, and in fact
the US continues to do well and will benefit as a safe haven. However,
political developments continue to outdistance economic news. From
Dallas to Tokyo to the South China Sea, here is what we can expect over
the coming week. Stories in our Spotlight This Week 1. ountering
China's Third Sea Force: Unmask Maritime Militia Before They're
Used Again

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/countering-chinas-third-sea-force-unmask-maritime-militia-16860

Andrew S. Erickson, Conor M. Kennedy 7/6/16 National Interest Another
source of instability: July 12th when the ruling on the South China Sea
from the Hague is expected (initiated by the Philippines). The verdict
is likely to go against China, and this article discussed possible
reaction by China's shadow navy, the Maritime Militia. Recent US/ROK
military games in the area, and sanctions against the North Korean
regime, are widely seen as preemptive against any action China may take.
Here is an excellent backgrounder on THADD from last year: 2. South
Korea Needs THAAD Missile Defense

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/06/south-korea-needs-thaad-missile-defense

Bruce Klingner 6/12/15 Heritage. org This is not just about the South
China Sea, the issue is international law. The ruling of the Hague
Tribunal has the potential to polarize opinions against China and
isolate the country from the norms of global governance. The European
Union is especially alarmed at the prospect of China's defiance of
international law, and can be expected to issue a statement on or before
Tuesday's ruling. 3. In aging Japan, the 18-year-old voter gets welcomed
to the voting booth

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2016/0708/In-aging-Japan-the-18-year-old-voter-gets-welcomed-to-the-voting-booth

Gavin Blair 7/8/16 CSmonitor This Sunday marks the election of the House
of Councillors election in Japan, and the first time 18-year old's are
able to vote. Why might young Japanese voters go against Abe? The new
three arrows: the failure of Abenomics, the possibility that an LDP
majority in the House of Concillors could shoehorn a new interpretation
of Article 9 and allow offensive military development, and the
postponement of the consumption tax which places upon them an enormous
burden of debt. 4. Reinforcing Detterence on NATO's Eastern Flank

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1253.html

David A. Shlapak, Michael Johnson July 2016 Rand

http://www.rand.org/about/people/s/shlapak_david_a.html

T he NATO summit in Warsaw has just ended, at a sensitive time when the
European economic union is under attack. A Rand study finds that "As
presently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its
most exposed members " . It appears that the members accepted the
recommendations proposed in this article, and have decided to deploy
seven brigades in Poland and the Baltic States. Putin will doubtless
react. 5. Brexit Bet Makes Kazakhstan Better Than Soros

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/kazakhstan-beats-soros-after-dumping-pounds-on-day-before-brexit

Nariman Gizitdinov 678/16 Bloomberg Despite the usual drama that takes
place in any emerging market, Kazakstan has some incredibly intelligent
economic policymakers. They could become a fintech hub in the region. 6.
The Brexit Surprise and Emerging Markets

http://voxeu.org/article/brexit-surprise-and-emerging-markets

Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, Anderson Ospino 7/4/16 VoxEU 7. Hungary
Calls "Quota Referendum" for October 2nd

http://www.euronews.com/2016/07/05/orban-calls-quota-referendum-in-hungary-for-october-2nd/#.V32n8cvsWDY.facebook

Robert Hackwill 7/6/16 EuroNews Another date to watch in the countdown
to the new face of the European Union. If Hungary votes to ignore EU
rules on immigration, they are effectively voting to leave. 8. What if
Japan Becomes Treasury's First Currency "Manipulator" in 22 Years?

http://blogs.cfr.org/geographics/2016/07/07/japantreasurycurrencymanipulator/

Ben Steil, Emma Smith 7/7/16 CFR Let the currency wars begin. 9. This
Tweet Perfectly Captures How Many People Feel After the Dallas Shooting

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/8/12126544/dallas-shooting-police-tweet

German Lopez 7/8/16 Vox 10. Book Review: "The Pivot: The Future of
American Statecraft in Asia", By Kurt Campbell

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/07/04/Book-review-The-Pivot-The-Future-of-American-Statecraft-in-Asia-by-Kurt-Campbell.aspx

Hugh White 7/4/16 The Interpreter Hugh White says that the US has not
diagnosed the problem the pivot to Asia was designed to solve. The
author disagrees: "The Pivot": A Reply To Hugh White

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/07/05/The-Pivot-A-reply-to-Hugh-White.aspx?utm_source=Lowy+Interpreter&utm_campaign=66ec133d8f-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eed7d14b56-66ec133d8f-59369773

Kurt Campbell 7/5/16 The Interpreter EconVue Research and Insights

Why Culture Matters: On Governance Scandals and Corporate Malfeasance in
Japan

https://econvue.com/reports/nicholas-benes/why-culture-matters-governance-scandals-and-corporate-malfeasance-japan

Nicholas Benes

Corporate compliance and a codified form of corporate ethics is just
getting off the ground in Japan. Given their weight in global equity
markets, investors need to understand the state of play in Japanese
companies today. EconVue expert Nicholas Benes shares his views from
Tokyo:

In contrast to most other nations, where the cause of malfeasance,
securities fraud and the like is often personal greed of some sort. In
Japan, the causes usually lie in a misplaced concept held by managers
that avoiding public embarrassment is best for the company. They may
have some catching up to do in the sense of compliance practices, ethics
programs, and internal forensics, but when they set out to study
something, Japanese managers usually do a pretty good job of it. China's
Economy and Policy: Trends and Outlook in Early 2016

https://econvue.com/reports/nikolai-tagarov/china's-economy-and-policy-trends-and-outlook-early-2016

Nikolai Tagarov China will tighten capital controls, and will need to
work with institutions like EBRD, EIB and IFC to achieve its New Silk
Road goals but MFIs must remind China of the need to adhere to free
market and CSR principles. Data Round-Up: Jobs Back on Track, Trend
Looks Sustainable at +150K

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-jobs-back-track-trend-looks-sustainable-150k

Michael Lewis The pound remains weak, and the dollar has been bolstered
by the ‘flight to safety' amid uncertainty. As the UK-EU relationship is
clarified in coming months, currencies will revert to pre-Brexit norms.
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