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EconVue Weekly Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

My favorite quote this week: I've got fifty quid that says we see an
alien invasion by Christmas (@markcoflaherty) It has truly been an
amazing time, when anything might happen. We focus mainly on the chaos
in Turkey, a member of NATO since 1952 and a country that houses more
than 90 US tactical nuclear weapons. Since last Friday approximately
35,000 people have been dismissed or detained, including the deans of
all its universities. Turkish academics are no longer free to travel
outside the country. This does not bode well for Democrary. Ironically,
President Erdogan, who banned Twitter, used it to regain his hold on his
country. This evening, Donald Trump was nominated by the Republican
party as its candidate for the President of the United States. The
status quo, as Ronald Reagan said, is Latin for the mess we are in.
Stories in our Spotlight This Week: Turkey 1. Turkish Military's
Influence Rises Again

http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkish-militarys-influence-rises-again-1463346285

Dion Nissenbaum 5/15/16 WSJ This article appeared in the WSJ two months'
prior to the attempted military coup in Turkey, the first ever in a NATO
country. Worth reading today. 2. Turkey is the Next Failed State in the
Middle East

http://www.meforum.org/5558/turkey-failed-state

David P. Goldman 10/15/15 Middle East Forum Turkey may become the
region's next failed state…There has to be a fall guy

http://atimes.com/2015/09/vladimir-putin-spoiler-or-statesman/

in the Middle East's film noir, and that unenviable role has fallen to
Turkey. The disintegration of the US-Turkish alliance began last fall
with a surprise from Washington. 3. Erdogan's Coup

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2016/07/why_the_failed_turkish_coup_will_empower_erdogan.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_top

Edward N. Luttwak July 2016 Slate An assessment of the events in Turkey
by the man who literally wrote the book on how to stage a coup, the
estimable Edward Luttwak. 4. Turkey's Coup may have Failed - but History
Shows it won't be Long Until Another One Succeeds

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/turkey-coup-erdogan-ankara-istanbul-military-army-turkey-s-coup-may-have-failed-but-history-shows-a7140521.html

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/countering-chinas-third-sea-force-unmask-maritime-militia-16860

Robert Fisk 7/16/16 Independent UK The story in Turkey is not over.
Tactical nuclear weapons are housed at the base in Incirlik and reports
are that 42 helicopters have gone missing from that location. Veteran
journalist and historian Robert Fisk writes that another coup might be
on the horizon. 5. Turkey Extends Purge to Universities, Asking All
Deans to Go

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-19/turkey-extends-purge-to-universities-asking-all-deans-to-go

Isobel Finkel 7/19/16 Bloomberg The purge is gaining force, and Erdogan
is now going after academics. How will universities reopen this fall?
More Stories in our Spotlight This Week 6. How To Embrace Nationalism
Responsibly

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-to-embrace-nationalism-responsibly/2016/07/10/faf7a100-4507-11e6-8856-f26de2537a9d_story.html?postshare=3311468200459323&tid=ss_tw

Lawrence Summers 7/10/16 Washington Post Brexit might have been more
about national identity than immigration policy. 7. Philippines V.
China: Arbitration Outcomes

https://amti.csis.org/arbitration-map/

CSIS 7/12/16 I attended the 6th annual CSIS conference on the South
China Sea last week in Washington. The Chinese speaker was on the
defensive about environmental concerns for coral reefs and fishing. This
is a game changer for Chinese diplomacy with profound domestic
implications (probably positive) for President Xi Jinping. 8. China is
the Biggest Market in Fintech - the World Just Doesn't Know it Yet

http://www.lendacademy.com/china-fintech-market/?utm_content=buffer544db&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#comments

Jason Jones 7/16/16 LendAcademy 9. Japan's Public Broadcaster Says
Emperor Akihito Ready to Abdicate

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ac18e98-48e6-11e6-b387-64ab0a67014c.html#axzz4EhJHQwrI

Robin Harding 6/13/16 FT The emperor has apparently made know his wish
to resign, abdicating in favor of his son, who could also serve as
regent. Could Queen Elizabeth do the same? 10. Obama slammed Polish
democracy on Friday. Here's how Polish TV proved him right.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/09/obama-slammed-polish-democracy-on-friday-heres-how-polish-tv-proved-him-right/

Michael Birnbaum 7/9/16 Washington Post More than 100 journalists have
been dismissed or have resigned from Poland's public broadcaster this
year, a measure of the major changes underway there. Some journalists
say that anyone perceived as critical of the Law and Justice party is
now under threat. President Obama's remarks were intentionally
misrepresented by government media during his visit to Warsaw. At risk:
the independence of Poland's high court. And another blow to freedom of
the press worldwide. 11. Historical Echoes: The Fed's Cuban Connection

http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2016/07/historical-echoes-the-feds-cuban-connection.html#.V4vl1Vdos6h

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/countering-chinas-third-sea-force-unmask-maritime-militia-16860

Mary Tao 7/15/16 Liberty Street In 1926 the Atlanta Fed prevented a run
on Cuban banks by shipping $26.5M in cash to Havana via gunboat before
banks opened on Monday morning. The Boston and Atlanta Feds both had
offices in Cuba beginning in 1923 to protect US interests. 12. Most
Heavily-Armed States in America

http://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/most-heavily-armed-states-in-america/?ftag=ACQ-07-10aae5i&vndid=1853319151&nan_pid=1853319151&ad_id=1875906

CBS News 7/18/16 New York is the least heavily armed; Washington DC is
#2, after Wyoming. EconVue Research and Insights Growing Number of Fed
Banks Lobby for Rate Hikes

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/growing-number-fed-banks-lobby-rate-hikes

Michael Lewis 07/12/16 At their June meeting, FOMC members, hawks and
doves alike, seemed to be in full retreat. In the "dot plot," every
member scaled back their expected future increases in the funds target
in the near-, medium- and long-term. The median number of rate hikes
expected in 2016, which went from four in the December 2015 dot plot to
2-3 in March 2016, crumpled to barely two +25BP moves expected in June.
Many observers, not to mention the Fed futures market, scoffed at the
FOMC's resolve to do even that. Data Round-Up: Single-Family Housing
Starts Post Impressive Trend Gain

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-single-family-housing-starts-post-impressive-trend-gain

Michael Lewis 07/19/16 Housing starts were up nicely in June, reaching
1.189 mm units (seasonally-adjusted at annual rate) from a
downwardly-revised 1.135 mm units in May; this +4.8% gain was well above
the consensus estimate. For 2016 to date, total starts are up a solid
+8% vs. the same period in 2015. Single-family starts, the more
economically-sensitive component, accounted for the majority of the June
increase. They are up a very impressive +15% for 2016 to date vs. the
first six months of 2015. Obama Speaks: A Presidential Assessment of
Obamacare

https://econvue.com/reports/david-w-johnson/obama-speaks-presidential-assessment-obamacare

David W. Johnson 07/19/16 Earlier this month, President Obama took the
unprecedented step of authoring an academic research article in The
Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) to document the
Affordable Care Act's (ACA) accomplishments and suggest improvements.
EconVue expert David Johnson analyzes the President's arguments.
Finally, we end as we began, with Turkey. The transcript of today's
conference call with Steven Cook, an expert on Turkey at the Council on
Foreign Relations is here

http://www.cfr.org/turkey/turkey-update-erdogans-outlook-consequences-failed-coup/p38145

. His overall assessment is that Turkey is in chaos and that there will
be an inevitable worsening of relations with the US. I asked the second
question. If you would like to subscribe to our weekly newsletter,
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With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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