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The Evening CSIS: Detained, Secret Iran Papers, The Chieftains & More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please send me an email at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)


** Detained
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Turkey’s justice minister says that some 6,000 people have been detained following a failed coup attempt. That includes some 3,000 military personnel detained in bases around the country. And, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Thomas Grove reports (http://www.wsj.com/articles/alleged-coup-leaders-appear-in-court-in-ankara-1468846241) , the former commander of Turkey’s air force, Akin Ozturk, appeared in court today in Ankara to deny participation in the coup.

Turkish president Erdogan gave his first interview since the coup on CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/18/europe/turkey-president-erdogan-interview-coup/index.html ) today, where he refused to rule out the death penalty for the thousands of people arrested.

The BBC provides a good “What you need to know (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36816045) ” summary about the coup attempt.

Dive Deeper: ICYMI, NPR’s Weekend Edition Sunday interviewed CSIS’s Bulent Aliriza from Ankara on Turkey’s “fractured society (http://www.npr.org/2016/07/17/486359370/turkey-detains-thousands-as-failed-coup-attempt-leaves-a-fractured-society) .”

CSIS’s John Schaus and Scott Aughenbaugh had been conducting a survey of Turks’ views of the country’s future over the past week leading up to Friday night’s coup attempt. The survey is part of a broader CSIS study examining the long-term prospects of important regional states to serve as strong partners to the United States today and into the future. Nearly 59 percent of respondents to CSIS’s survey believed that the greatest security threat to Turkey in 2025 would be social/political fracturing. This was more than double the response received by the next most common response—terrorist attacks. More survey results are available here (https://www.csis.org/analysis/future-turkey-preliminary-survey-results) .

The Atlantic Council’s Sabine Freizer authored a new commentary (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-perils-of-a-failed-coup-in-turkey) , “The Perils of a Failed Coup in Turkey,” plus today the Atlantic Council held a conference call featuring Sir Peter Westmacott, former British ambassador to Turkey (and subsequently to the US). Audio of the conference call, which also featured the Atlantic Council’s Aaron Stein and Matthew Bryza, is available for download (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/analysis-on-attempted-coup-in-turkey) .


** Confidential Text Eases Iran Nuke Constraints
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Key restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program imposed under an internationally negotiated deal will start to ease years before the 15-year accord expires, advancing Tehran's ability to build a bomb even before the end the pact, according to a document (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/07/18/world/middleeast/ap-iran-nuclear-.html?_r=0 ) http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/07/18/world/middleeast/ap-iran-nuclear-.html?_r=0obtained today by the Associated Press.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Sharon Squassoni created an interactive timeline (http://jcpoatimeline.csis.org/) that depicts the complicated process that is the Iran nuclear deal implantation plan. This timeline extends to all the way to 2026 and shows the key deadlines that the agreement specifies.


** AQ in Yemen
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Two suicide bombers tried to ram vehicles laden with explosives through two Yemeni military checkpoints near the government-held port city of Mukalla today, killing at least 10 people, the army and medics said. And, as
Reuters reports (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN0ZY0BI) , al Qaeda’s Yemeni branch claimed responsibility for the attacks, the latest in a series of bombings since forces loyal to Yemeni president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, backed by troops from the United Arab Emirates, drove out the Islamist militants from the city in April.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Zoltan Barnary today released a new report (https://www.csis.org/analysis/challenges-building-national-army-yemen) https://www.csis.org/analysis/challenges-building-national-army-yemenin which he explains that understanding the inability of the Yemeni state to build a cohesive military has been one of the key underlying causes of past and present Yemeni instability.


** In That Number
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** 6,000
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Donald Trump’s posts on Twitter were retweeted almost 6,000 times on average, compared with more than 1,500 for Hillary Clinton.
Source: Pew Research Center (http://www.journalism.org/2016/07/18/election-2016-campaigns-as-a-direct-source-of-news/) .


** Critical Quote
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** “Although the attempted coup by a faction of the military on July 15 failed, the visible scars in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, which was bombed along with other public buildings, the steady stream of funerals of the victims of the fighting in Ankara, and the heavy police presence in the streets continue to remind citizens of the heavy cost. Not so visible is the incalculable cost on the psyche of those who had become convinced that the era of coups, which characterized much of Turkish political life in the past, was over.

The coup collapsed because the plotters, who had been unable to persuade the majority of the armed forces to join them, were ultimately overwhelmed by the masses of people who had been called into the streets by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, the very fact that they were able to organize secretly and then move into action has introduced concern into the Turkish political system about the country’s vulnerability to armed insurrection, as the ongoing nightly mass democracy rallies confirms.

It has also undermined Turkey’s image as a relatively stable country, which was in sharp contrast to the turmoil in neighboring Syria and Iraq. Turkey has for some time been facing the twin threats of terrorism by the PKK and the Islamic State, which recently carried out a suicide attack at Ataturk Airport in Istanbul, and the coup has heightened concerns that the country is being sucked into the regional turmoil.

It remains to be seen how Turkey will deal with the massive challenges it now confronts. However, what is clear is that the task has become much more difficult after July 15.”
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— CSIS’s Bulent Aliriza's preliminary assessment on the coup in Turkey.


** One to Watch
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(Photo Credit: Twitter.)

Matt Vasilogambros (@MattVas (https://twitter.com/mattvas) ) is a senior associate editor for the Atlantic. Matt is closely tracking (http://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/07/an-attack-on-a-german-train/491870/) today's reported attack on a German train by an axe-wielding teenage refugee.


** Optics
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(Photo Credit: Valery Hache/AFP/Getty Images)

A French flag is seen as people gather to observe a moment of silence at the Jardin Albert 1er on the Promenade des Anglais seafront in Nice, on July 18, 2016, in tribute to the victims of the deadly Nice attack on Bastille day.


** Highly Recommended
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“BuzzFeed’s newest political reporter is a bot (http://www.poynter.org/2016/buzzfeeds-newest-political-reporter-is-a-bot/421767/) ” (in which you will learn what a “bot” is, if you don’t already know, and why it means something about the future of news and information).

And, via the McKinsey Quarterly, “Where machines could replace humans—and where they can’t (yet) (http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/business-technology/our-insights/where-machines-could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cant-yet?curator=MediaREDEF) .”

Plus, ICYMI, the New York Times’ Vindu Goel on “When Yahoo Ruled the Valley: Stories of the Original ‘Surfers.’ (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/technology/when-yahoo-ruled-the-valley-stories-of-the-original-surfers.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&&_r=0#038;smid=nytcore-iphone-share&038;_r=0) ”


** CSIS Tomorrow
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Join CSIS’s Russia and Eurasia Program at 10:00 a.m. for “Afghanistan and Central Asia: Shared Security or Divided Insecurity? (https://www.csis.org/events/afghanistan-and-central-asia) ”

And join CSIS’s Energy and National Security Program at 1:30 p.m. for a CEO Speaker Session with Scott Sheffield (https://www.csis.org/events/ceo-speaker-session-scott-sheffield) of Pioneer Natural Resources.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Tomorrow at 1:30 p.m., the US Institute of Peace will host a discussion on “Aid, ISIS, and Reconciliation (http://www.usip.org/events/iraqi-foreign-minister-aid-isis-and-reconciliation) ,” with Dr. Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, Iraq’s foreign minister on aid.

Join the Project for the Study of the 21st Century at 3:00 p.m. for “Russia and Europe—Dangerous Times, Dangerous Continent? (https://www.eventbrite.com/e/dc-event-russia-and-europe-tickets-26562727834) "


** CSIS On Demand
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Watch Ambassador Cui Tiankai of China discuss China’s perspective on the South China Sea disputes in “China’s Response to the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtvRkyjL4wQ) . (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtvRkyjL4wQ) ”


** Sounds
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Listen to the latest from CSIS’s Russian Roulette podcast, “NATO Meets in Warsaw (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/russian-roulette) ,” for a discussion of the recent NATO summit, the future of the alliance, and its relationship with Russia.


** I Like It Like That
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Politico today premiered a new, short video series: “Retroreport.” The first episode, “Will the Donald Trump show really be so different? (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/will-the-donald-trump-show-really-be-so-different-225687) ,” (about 6 and a half minutes long) takes a look back at past political conventions and finds plenty of historical parallels.


** Smiles
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I need to write a wee bit more on the amazing music of Ireland. The ultimate smile isn’t even Van Morrison (I know, I know, settle down all…) It’s the Celtic music of The Chieftains, the heartbeat of the Emerald Isle.

I’m reading a fantastic book about The Chieftains by John Glatt. Glatt is an investigative journalist and best-selling true crime novelist. “The Chieftains: An Authorized Biography,” published in 1997, was nominated for a Grammy in spoken word form in 2000. It reads even better than it sounds—Glatt brings the music alive and the words jump off of the page.

The Chieftains’ founder and leader, Paddy Moloney is a force in music and Irish culture. Perhaps more than anyone, Moloney is responsible for the renaissance in traditional Irish music not to mention keeping the genre alive. A master of the Uilleann pipes, Moloney also plays tin whistle, button accordion and bodhrán.

The Chieftains have won 6 Grammy’s and have been nominated 18 times. They’ve performed all over the world and recorded with Van Morrison, Mick Jagger, Elvis Costello, Roger Daltrey and Jackson Browne to name just a few.

But when The Chieftains get together and perform live with The Corrs, an Irish band that combines traditional Irish music with pop, it’s really something to behold (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vtp4adNTP0Y) .


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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