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12/12/2017 07:52 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

With an assist from Seung Min Kim

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS - Voters in Alabama head to the polls today to cast their ballots in the state's most consequential election in recent memory. A win by Doug Jones would mark the first time in 25 years Alabamians sent a Democrat to the Senate and would surely fire up the party's base and fundraising efforts heading into the midterms. A Jones victory in the ruby red state would also move Democrats one step closer to taking back the Senate next year, a scenario that seemed all but impossible just months ago.

If Roy Moore wins, Senate Republicans would immediately face decisions about whether to move forward with an ethics investigation and possible expulsion - a process that could last months, if not years - against the former state Supreme Court justice. Moore's penchant for controversy could also become a real drag on GOP candidates heading into the midterms and potentially cost Republicans the Senate. And a Moore win would only continue to highlight the disunity between the party's leaders - President Donald Trump, who has trumpeted the accused child predator, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and others, who said Moore should drop out of the race.

Final hours: Moore returned to the campaign trail Monday after nearly a week without events, appearing with Steve Bannon at a rally in south Alabama. "There's a special place in hell for Republicans who should know better. You know what they're doing is trying to shut up President Trump and Judge Moore," Bannon said, referring to Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who over the weekend said Alabama "deserves better" than Moore.

Jones campaigned with Alabama native Charles Barkley in Birmingham. "At some point, we got to stop looking like idiots to the nation. I love Alabama, but at some point we have to draw a line in the [sand] and show we're not a bunch of damn idiots," Barkley said.

Final polls: "Fox News released a poll showing Jones with a surprising 10-point lead, conflicting with other recent public surveys showing Moore as a slight favorite. A Monmouth poll released later Monday had the race a pure toss-up that will be decided based on which Alabamians show up to vote." Alex Isenstadt and Gabriel Debenedetti on the campaign's final hours: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c65992e14deb1e1e373bb7de79f9bc60883ba08b00fbfc815d4de24acba34441b67d7f46d32b885c87ac7e81572ebc78

Five things to watch after the polls close at 8 p.m. eastern, via Daniel Strauss: 1. Do black voters turn out in force for Jones? ... 2. Who will college-educated white voters choose? ... 3. Will rural conservatives stick with Moore? ... 4. Do the write-in votes hurt Moore? ... 5. How will the Republican party react to the results? Read more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c65992e14deb1e1e8bef800bc3460bdf4b7e83ab4ced028f5b102071310b9d5a8e29180e3ebebf63fcdefe44b98c0bcb

Headlines from the hometown paper: "Moore sits down for interview with 12-year-old girl," from AL.com's Leada Gore; and "Judge orders Alabama not to destroy voting records in Tuesday's election," reports Connor Sheets.

Tweet du jour: @jonallendc: In Midland City, Alabama, Steve Bannon goes after @JoeNBC, saying he got into better schools than Joe could have-Georgetown and Harvard. This might be the wrong place for that attack: Joe went to the University of Alabama.

-- Joe Scarborough responds: "Hey Bannon, you only went to Harvard because you couldn't get into Alabama. #RollDamnTide"

Not so secret anymore: Highway 31, a mystery super PAC that has poured more than $4 million into Alabama to back Doug Jones, is being run by two groups closely aligned with the national Democratic Party, even as Jones tries to distance himself from Washington, Gabriel Debenedetti reports. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c65992e14deb1e1ee4b1f230a5399ac586d1f22054ae00b9b20dfab62018ccd05c690859995c444828e1ae756c8d51d0

WELCOME TO TUESDAY, DEC. 12. WE GOT THIS. Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The AL.com story about Roy Moore holding an election eve rally with Steve Bannon was the winner.

BUT WHAT IF MOORE WINS? Senate Republicans in the past have said they would move to expel Moore if he wins, but now that doesn't seem to be the sure outcome. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said it would be a "very tough decision" given that the allegations Moore sexually pursued teenagers while in his 30s were known prior to the election. And as Mark Matthews reports for the Denver Post, Republicans are currently doing little to prepare for that scenario. "There has been no discussion in caucus," Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said about expelling Moore. "Not about that aspect. Not in a wide circle of people, no." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc7b19ebd957781b1453d55b247e0ca968e2d3147df36e0262b6a655140f75e376bfac48cf4efea9b73

Related: GOP leaders won't commit to giving Moore committee assignments if he wins, Manu Raju and Ted Barrett report for CNN. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc7cb5b942adac6459e812ee9445c439a71d04cdea11248095508410416cd44c80367466c8901f696ff

PLUGGING HOLES LEFT AND RIGHT - Republican tax-writers are racing to hammer out a final agreement by the end of the week but have yet to make breakthroughs on a range of key issues. "House and Senate negotiators bounced proposals back and forth over the weekend, but said Monday that they still had to find compromises on where to set the corporate tax rate, how to treat millions of businesses that aren't set up as corporations and how much of a deduction to allow for state and local taxes," Bernie Becker, Aaron Lorenzo and Seung Min report. "Asked Monday what differences the House and Senate had resolved, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) responded: 'Well, nothing really.'" More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc72e8ae42051b0f53f9a60f75a45960a92a86f6cb23937e0103a06ce5a8a2b3147ff90b5fac7524e2a

The timeline GOP leaders are aiming for: Republicans want to resolve major issues and file a conference report by Friday; vote on the bill in the Senate and House early next week; and get it to President Trump's desk by Wednesday, Dec. 20., according to a source familiar. (Remember, government funding runs out Dec. 22.)

PIC DU JOUR: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) sitting on Santa's lap at a GOP lobbyist's annual holiday party. See the pic: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc71bdaeeccb5428011de952c7f947b1818625863b05fc24fcb8a8112014392a581ce1b3f203b3a4317


STAY TUNED - Pensions could be the next battlefield in the fight to keep the government open beyond Dec. 22. "Congress barely averted a shutdown last year amid a fight over miners' health care. Now the looming collapse of pension plans for the miners - as well as thousands of Teamster truck drivers and food service workers - is fueling another, even more expensive, round of brinkmanship," Elana reports. "Key Democrats are vowing to fight for a fix as part of any forthcoming deal to fund the government."

But "conservative Republicans will be loath to provide anything that looks like a bailout, particularly for union workers. And one of the Senate's leading Democratic advocates for relief, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, is one of the GOP's top targets ahead of his reelection campaign next year." The latest: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc7a05572d8ebd232cba1cbead82abc7c08455a603a19f64ca27ad32c9ddf0614d6fdb88d482614f09d

FARENTHOLD'S 'FRAT HOUSE ON THE HILL' - Legal documents and interviews with former staffers to Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas) "suggest an atmosphere in which the congressman set the tone for off-color jokes and inappropriate banter, which flourished among his underlings," Sheryl Gay Stolberg reports. "The congressman, they said, was volatile. When he was angry, they added, Mr. Farenthold would berate them, sometimes sweeping his arm across his desk, knocking its contents to the floor, and threatening to fire people." The New York Times: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc7f93df7bfe918c871bcca62146e959274c3da802feef1a1f3810a3626e57163b886ec150b305ecb87

The House Ethics Committee is looking into a sexual harassment claim Farenthold settled with a former aide in 2014. But so far GOP leaders and most Republicans have not called on him to resign.

CONAWAY TO CONTINUE RUNNING RUSSIA PROBE - Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Texas) says he plans to continue overseeing the House's Russia investigation despite Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes being cleared by the Ethics Committee. Nunes stepped aside earlier this year after the Ethics panel launched a probe into whether he improperly shared classified information. He was cleared of wrongdoing last week. "I'm going to keep running it," Conaway told CNN. "He's got plenty of committee business to do, separate and apart from the Russia stuff. So I don't anticipate any changes to the relationship." Jeremy Herb and Manu Raju: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc799b882da3d2b8b2b1601bb318b0b21a20598237676774543d4ce08a925d24da752222743575a680e

ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES - Jim Cho, previously chief of staff to Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) started Monday as chief of staff for Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.). Kelsey Moran has been promoted to chief of staff for Frankel.

TODAY IN CONGRESS - The House meets at 10 a.m. with first and last votes around 4:30 p.m. Today's agenda: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=43194b8c98553cc756c2494292a8637455f0a4c8d846a601b8e119723202501095779155a0aef79a9838c2dbb3652797 The Senate meets at 10 a.m. with a vote on judicial nominee Leonard Steven Grasz, deemed "unqualified" by the American Bar Association, expected sometime today.

AROUND THE HILL - Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), GOP Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) take questions from reporters at 10 a.m. in HVC Studio A.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) hold a 10:15 a.m. press conference in SVC-212 with families of truck crash victims. Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) speaks at an IFES event on cybersecurity and disinformation in Mexico's July 2018 elections at 10:30 a.m. in 2456 Rayburn.

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) holds his weekly pen and pad at 11 a.m. in H-144. Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) hold a press conference on renewable energy at 12:30 p.m. in S-325.

Reps. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.) and Jackie Speier (D-Calif.) hold a 1 p.m. press conference in HVC-215 calling on the House Oversight Committee to investigate allegations of sexual misconduct against President Trump. Senate Republican and Democratic leaders hold separate press conferences after their weekly caucus lunches around 2 p.m. in the Ohio Clock Corridor.

WATCH LIVE TODAY - OUTSIDE, IN - COORDINATING CARE FOR THE ARMED FORCES: The three medical services for our armed forces - the VA, DOD and private providers - have historically been challenged by inadequate resources for care coordination. But now that the VA has purchased the same electronic health record system as the Pentagon, hopes are growing that we are on a path to better integration. Today, POLITICO, VA Sec. David Shulkin, M.D. and more will discuss what new opportunities greater integration might create, and what barriers still remain. The Newseum -- Livestream begins at 3:45pm ET. RSVP: here. Watch live: here.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Bruce Mehlman correctly guessed that Rebecca Latimer Felton, to date the only woman to represent Georgia in the Senate, served for one day in 1922. Felton was actually appointed to the seat on Oct. 3 but wasn't sworn in until the Senate reconvened on Nov. 21, serving for one day. Louis Wyman, a Republican from New Hampshire, appears to hold the record for second shortest tenure, serving four days from 1974-1975, according to the Washington Post.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Bruce with today's question: For the 10 presidential elections from 1936-1972, the candidate with more "Washington experience" won eight out of 10 times, with one tie. But after Vietnam and Watergate, the candidate with more years in Washington lost nine of the next 11 elections.

Who were the only two presidential candidates with more Washington experience (defined as years spent in D.C. in official roles) to win between 1976 and 2016? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: hcaygle@politico.com.

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