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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

All eyes are on Chicago this week. On Sunday, the CBOE launched bitcoin
futures trading, and all bets are off in terms of what to expect in
terms of pricing and volatility. If you would like to follow the action,
here is a link to the CBOE site

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

. The CME is launching a similar product next week. As unusual fires
strafe across Southern California (expected to last through Christmas)
the fragility of our planet is once again on display. Of particular
concern to me is the effect of climate change on agricultural
production. I attended the Chicago Fed's annual conference on
agriculture

http://www.cvent.com/events/agriculture-conference-november-28-2017/agenda-101389fcb0c047c8be29eb3fc2ea8f67.aspx

where I learned how even small changes in trade policies have an
enormous, long term effect on agriculture production. I particularly
enjoyed the luncheon presentation by Tom Vilsack, former Secretary of
Agriculture and now head of the US Dairy Export Council. I asked a
question about an issue central to food production, water. He referred
me to Colorado State's Colorado Water Institute

http://www.cwi.colostate.edu/

where I found a report

http://wsnet2.colostate.edu/cwis31/ColoradoWater/Images/Newsletters/2017/CW_34_6.pdf

on the Ogallala Aquifer that describes a 9-state water project many see
as a failure. The evolution of the water-food-energy nexus has a direct
effect on global sustainability. How resources such as aquifers are
shared was studied by Elinor Ostrom, the only woman to ever win a Nobel
prize in economics. She thought that users of resources most effectively
cooperate without interference by the government. The reality that
challenges to our food supply abound was brought home to me by a report
below from the World Economic Forum, that posits that in ten years there
will not be enough food to feed our expanding population, based on
measurements in kilocalories rather than weight or value of food
products. Prior to reading this I was of the conventional view that
Malthus was wrong, and that Amartya Sen, who posited that most famines
are due to faulty information rather than supplies, was right. In a
hyper connected world with population growth highest in our poorest
economies and advances in technology are slowing. Which brings me to our
holiday message. Food insecurity is everywhere, even in America. Once
again, we are sponsoring a campaign to raise both funds and awareness
through our partnership with the Chicago Food Depository. Here is a link
to our holiday food drive:

http://www.myfooddrive.org/drive.php?dhgeholidaydrive17

$1 buys 3 meals and all proceeds are used to purchase food. $17.19 buys
9 gallons of milk. We hope you will join us. Happy Holidays!

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

Honey vs. Vinegar: Value-Based Pricing Wins Customers and Market-Share

https://econvue.com/pulse/honey-vs-vinegar-value-based-pricing-wins-customers-and-market-share

David W. Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

Since 1999, the cost of a family health insurance policy has increased
550% more than median household incomes. The culprit is excessively-high
healthcare treatment costs. Public and private payers are pursuing
top-down or bottom-up strategies to normalize healthcare service prices,
especially for routine commodity care. FMI December 2017 Economic &
Investment Outlook

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fmi-december-2017-economic-investment-outlook

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

Real GDP on Track for +2.75% Gain in 17Q4, Should Sustain a Comparable
Pace thru Next Year; Core Inflation Rising Above +2% Target by Mid-18
Fed Policy Will Stay on Yellen ‘Auto Pilot' -- Expect Three Rate Hikes
(at Least) in 2018 & 2019. Data Round-Up: Another Strong JOLTS, Plus
This Week's Data Preview

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-another-strong-jolts-plus-weeks-data-preview

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

FMI's review of today's October JOLTS and 18Q1 Manpower Employment
Survey results, as well as our Preview of the rest of this week's major
data releases.

Labor Market Back to ‘Normal,' Continues to Tighten

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/labor-market-back-%E2%80%98normal%E2%80%99-continues-tighten

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

A rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week is a foregone conclusion. FMI
is confident that the updated "dot plot" will continue to show gradual
tightening, three +25BP hikes/year in both 2018 and 2019. US Commitment
to Latin America Can Foster Regional Stability

https://econvue.com/pulse/us-commitment-latin-america-can-foster-regional-stability

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

The imperative "not to become another Venezuela" will likely weigh
heavily in the electoral contests of the coming year. Yet the
appropriate path for development with social justice is one that each
country will decide according to its own conditions and experience. The
U.S. must be prepared to work with the region with steady commitment and
respect, whatever the range of outcomes.

Russian Engagement in Latin America: An Update

https://econvue.com/pulse/russian-engagement-latin-america-update

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

While the success of Russian advances in the region during the past year
has been uneven (with important setbacks in Argentina, Brazil and
Venezuela), a series of elections and other events create the conditions
for an accelerated Russian advances in 2018, to include possible
opportunities for Putin's government in Cuba, El Salvador, Venezuela,
Mexico and Chile.

The Payments Elephant

https://econvue.com/pulse/payments-elephant

Collin Canright

https://www.econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

I moderated a meeting of the Chicago Payments Forum this week to discuss
payments developments in 2017 and how they will affect business in 2018
and beyond. In putting together the overview, it occurred to me that
right up front we had to address the elephant in the room: bitcoin.

Spare Change

https://econvue.com/pulse/spare-change

Collin Canright

https://www.econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

It looks like incumbent financial institutions in the United States are
in for a tax-break windfall. Whether that spare change be used to fix
pressing infrastructure problems remains to be seen.

Outlook for the Australian Economy against a Global Economic Backdrop

https://econvue.com/pulse/outlook-australian-economy-against-global-economic-backdrop

Saul Eslake

https://econvue.com/experts/saul-eslake

Saul's PowerPoint presentation to the Association of Corporate Travel
Executives Conference on economic influences on business travel.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT FOOD In 10 years, the world may not be able to
feed itself

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/09/in-10-years-the-world-may-not-be-able-to-feed-itself?utm_content=bufferf024d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abdi Latif Dahir 9/12/2017 WEF India is hungrier than North Korea

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/10/india-is-hungrier-than-north-korea?utm_content=buffer738b9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Suneera Tandon 10/23/2017 WeForum Global meat consumption (kilograms per
person)

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/936995888769257473

Spectator Index 12/2017 We cannot support a world in which China and
India consume as much meat as the US. Consequences? This new strain of
salt water rice could feed 200 million people

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/china-has-developed-a-rice-that-grows-in-seawater?utm_content=buffere497b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Brad Bergan 11/7/ 2017 WEF China has developed a rice that grows in
seawater Like it or not, Africa's future lies in GM crops

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/like-it-or-not-africa-s-future-lies-in-gm-crops-ln5bxrxqp

Matt Ridley 11/20/2017 The Times From a self-professed climate
"lukewarmer" threats to Africa's food supply. FINTECH Bitcoin Futures
Deliver Wild Ride as Debut Brings Rally, Halts

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-10/bitcoin-futures-trading-opens-bringing-crypto-to-wall-street

Rob Urban, Camila Russo, Yuji Nakamura Bloomberg 12/10/2017 Video The
CBOE and the CME are located in Chicago, not New York. "Bitcoin just
landed on Wall Street, and not (yet) with a bang." CBOE CEO Edward Tilly
on launch of bitcoin futures trading

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/05/cboe-ceo-edward-tilly-on-launch-of-bitcoin-futures-trading.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

CNBC 12/5/2017 Video A whole new generation will learn about futures
because of bitcoin. CBOE CEO Edward Tilly on launch of bitcoin futures
trading. Bitcoin Futures Set to Start Trading as Regulator Gives Thumbs
Up

https://www.wsj.com/articles/regulator-opens-way-to-bitcoin-futures-1512133201

Alexander Osipovich 12/1/2017 WSJ Are bitcoin futures the new subprime
mortgage backed securities? Two Chicago exchanges can launch bitcoin
contracts. Drivers and risks of the cryptocurrency boom

https://www.ft.com/content/8db6ce04-d458-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

Hannah Murphy 12/2017 FT Terrific, balanced analysis of the
cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin Bulls And Bears: Who's Hot, Who's Not on
Crypto

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/bitcoin-bulls-bears/

Bloomberg 12/9/2017 Here's what bitcoin critics and supporters around
the world have to say about crypto. Bitcoin could cost us our
clean-energy future

https://grist.org/article/bitcoin-could-cost-us-our-clean-energy-future/

Eric Holthaus 12/5/2017 Grist "Each bitcoin transaction requires the
same amount of energy used to power nine homes in the U.S. for one day."
US New IRS Data: Illinois Sees Record Loss of People, Income to Other
States

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/new-irs-data-illinois-sees-record-loss-of-people-income-to-other-states/

Austin Berg 12/1/2017 Illinois Policy Two words. Property Taxes. Why
can't San Francisco's tech culture solve the city's social problems?

https://www.ft.com/content/262e2b2c-d423-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

Tom Braithwaite 12/1/ 2017 FT Persistent and increasing income
inequality- is this where the entire world is heading? Technologists
underestimate politics, but in the end, economics rules. The Dollar
General CEO just accidentally made clear how screwed up the economy is

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/4/16735340/dollar-general-ceo-economy

Dylan Scott 12/4/2017 VOX Quote of the week: "The economy is continuing
to create more of our core customers." From Bezos to Walton, Big
Investors Back Fund for ‘Flyover' Start-Ups

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/04/business/dealbook/midwest-start-ups.html

Andrew Ross Sorkin 12/4/2017 NY Times Senate FIFO Proposal Punishes
American Investors

http://www.wealthmanagement.com/high-net-worth/senate-fifo-proposal-punishes-american-investors

Thomas Faust Jr. 12/4/2017 Wealth Management Will the provisions of the
new tax law such as FIFO (first in first out) mean that it is
advantageous for many to sell stocks and take profits before year end at
lower capital gains rates? Could this trigger a selfoff of
cryptocurrencies as well? Preventative Priorities Survey: 2018

https://www.cfr.org/report/preventive-priorities-survey-2018?utm_medium=social_share&utm_source=tw

Paul B. Stares 12/11/2017 Council on Foreign Relations What are the
biggest threats next year? Preventive Priorities Survey: 2018

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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