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09/19/2017 07:51 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

With an assist from Daniel Lippman

WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS OBAMACARE REPEAL EFFORT? GOP Senate leaders are growing bullish about their prospects of voting to repeal Obamacare before the Sept. 30 deadline. So far, there's only one hard "no," Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and one likely "no," Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). No one else has stepped forward to offer the critical third opposition vote to sink the repeal effort, a block-grant bill from Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). "I told Bill Cassidy he's the grave robber," said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). "This thing was 6 feet under. And I think he's revived it to the point that there's a lot of positive buzz and forward momentum."

Wavering senators remain on the sidelines: "Conservative Sen. Mike Lee of Utah is warming to the legislation, which would turn federal health care funding into block grants for states and eliminate Obamacare's coverage mandate, while Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski is undecided," Burgess and Jen Haberkorn report from the Capitol. "We need to go to regular order," said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who met with McConnell Monday, told reporters. "I am not supportive of the bill yet. We need to talk more about it."

Signs of life: The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the Graham-Cassidy bill next Monday morning, an attempt to appease senators including McCain who have complained this bill, like other previous attempts, was rushed through without a committee hearing. The Senate Homeland Security Committee, led by Graham-Cassidy co-sponsor Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), will hold its own hearing on block grants Tuesday. The latest: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb887f5969589e66a894e23987a1f7a39e3b8df353808c141fcb3a4edf82e6392a2a73a7b8a23e80777905ff5f22b50c5878

If senators do vote on the latest GOP repeal bill, they'll be flying blind, with only a barebones assessment of the legislation's impact, CBO said Monday. The CBO analysis, which the agency aims to release early next week, will include some basic budgetary estimates. But it will not have details about the practical implications of the bill, including how many people could lose coverage and the impact on insurance premiums. Those estimates will not be available for at least several weeks. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb88acb65430ae1c4fd832f084913d8567ce581095643178eb59dd0962faeaffe41e2019c7c55121e6c5aa41b0c93c192302

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats have revived the pressure tactics used to sink previous Obamacare repeal efforts, leaning on moderate Republicans and mobilizing prominent groups like the AARP, Elana reports. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will lead a rally with liberal advocates later today and Democrats are weighing tactics to stall the bill on the floor if it comes up for a vote next week. More on the Dem playbook: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb88d63f0a70a551171d6fe9a35b6d34f9509bdad802394afd4faa2b58c95c681626784adbbbee4440370b7f3bb0ea25fb0d

ACROSS THE CAPITOL... House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows predicted Monday that the House would pass the last-ditch effort to repeal Obamacare if it clears the Senate, Rachael reports. "It's fundamentally our last chance to make a legislative fix to Obamacare, and if it doesn't happen, then the chances of it happening in the future are slim to none," he said in an interview. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb88360310130231941b6e0bd30d730f89b4e713a604ae98b0b60615c76c6a61154f3c9945647b9acd5499c1cd8411f7ff77

TOTALLY TUESDAY DUDE. Welcome to Sept. 19 and thanks for tuning in to POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The video of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) showing off his quenelle-crafting skills was the winner.

WH GOING ALL OUT FOR STRANGE - Vice President Mike Pence will head to Alabama next Monday to campaign with Sen. Luther Strange ahead of the GOP Senate runoff the next day, Daniel Strauss and Matt Nussbaum report. President Donald Trump will be in the state on Saturday to stump for Strange, who is lagging behind challenger Roy Moore in the polls. In addition, America First Policies, the pro-Trump nonprofit, will spend nearly $500,000 over the next week on digital ads, direct mail pieces, and get-out-the-vote phone calls to boost Strange, BuzzFeed's Henry Gomez reports.

Related: Moore, in a speech on race over the weekend, talked about the racial divisions between "blacks and whites fighting, reds and yellows." The Hill's Ben Kamisar: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb8871ad2d9a269f15878a487f125f12cad9b2daaa6eac8dbf7075f3e9297438ad9b042318a4ab72d385676b192245cf5cb2

MENDING FENCES - The White House, mostly working through Pence, has been trying to repair relationships with some of the GOP senators Trump has alienated in recent months including Murkowski, McCain and McConnell, CNN's Manu Raju reports this morning. "As a former congressman, Pence has long-standing relationships with a number of senators, plus he attends the weekly Senate Republican lunches, allowing him to constantly be in communication with GOP senators -- including ones who have sparred with Trump."

Quote du jour: "I think it's like a thunderstorm," Sen. John Cornyn, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said of his conference's relationship with Trump. "After a while it clears up, the sun comes out and everything is OK." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb88338dc2105318aa1508775aa72aaeb3c387a2c9205771d0eb9d77343f8de000831042ee8f4c22f4c1347d738375b86a4f

TALKING TAX REFORM - "Senate Republicans are considering writing a budget that would allow for up to $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade," the Wall Street Journal's Rich Rubin and Siobhan Hughes report. "A budget that creates fiscal room for a $1.5 trillion tax cut, if adopted, would then be followed by a tax bill that would specify rate cuts and other policy changes that don't exceed that figure. Calling for a tax cut in the budget would let Republicans lower tax rates while making fewer tough decisions on what tax breaks to eliminate to help pay for the cuts." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb8836c4bb85120a4567dc1b6258731c7d11130390d9f374f2d185e0ff664f3e68acf94e9651375b7ab94093945c57282366

PELOSI SHOUTED DOWN BY DREAMERS - Immigration-rights protesters took over a press conference with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Monday, shouting down the California Democrat and calling her a "liar." Pelosi and Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) were scheduled to speak about the Dream Act, which would provide a path to citizenship for Dreamers. "We need to have a conversation, but that was completely one-sided," Pelosi told reporters afterward, according to a transcript from her office. "They don't want any answers." Ted Hesson reports: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb88cfce394a6686e5b4bd1cc69baf0c53447114a45540f441c921c99fadb394d0b4ffccc6e2dc289304f54439ffebd02d55 and NBC Bay Area with video of the confrontation:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb883d07d0ac1124ef6b57e6eeeb6addf12266a092e8b8cd300f7e7c0cd5a3e0503a65c2d3ab4ed466ffa6796e6963a8fe6c

FARAH LEAVING FREEDOM CAUCUS - Alyssa Farah, top adviser and spokeswoman for the House Freedom Caucus, is leaving the Hill to work for Vice President Mike Pence. Farah, who has been with the Freedom Caucus since March 2016 and worked as communications director for Rep. Mark Meadows (now the group's chairman) before that, will provide Pence with a critical link to the group. "Pence has described himself as a kindred spirit of the Freedom Caucus, and he shared their verve for bucking leadership when he was in the House," report Matt Nussbaum and Jake Sherman, who scooped the news.

Christina Mandreucci, deputy press secretary for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is also joining Pence's office as regional media director.


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ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES - Adam Lowenstein is moving to the U.K. to work for EY's Beacon Institute in London. He was previously speechwriter and strategic communications adviser for Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). Jacob Peters is leaving his job as communications director for Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) after this week. He has a new gig as DCCC regional press secretary.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD - Melissa Kiedrowicz Ellison, legislative director for Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.), and John Ellison, senior director at Precision Network, welcomed their son Everett Gray Ellison this past Wednesday. Pic of big brother Henry holding his new buddy: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb885a7196ce122bf8d9de391b3e3963e76a49842be71ca93eaae42c70f5904a2332f9b3b9543b51dda5d173f1046db54ddd

TODAY IN CONGRESS - The Senate meets at 10 a.m. with one roll call vote at 11 a.m. and another vote at 12:15 p.m. on Noel Francisco, Solicitor General nominee. Today's agenda: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a5faaea52f5ccb88ff329b971ba0f339401c9a3da22ba71bb96be5fec9a6f5539155e396e58192ac33471ee4761cc930a20bb714e8de41ac The House is out until September 25.

AROUND THE HILL - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will hold a press conference on efforts to stop sending jobs overseas at 10:30 a.m. in 608 Dirksen.

Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) participates in a conference call on the Dream Act with the Chamber of Commerce, CATO and CAP Action Fund, at 11:45 a.m. Email tarditi1@americanprogressaction.org for details.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and liberal advocacy groups hold a rally against the Graham-Cassidy health care bill at 12:15 p.m. in the Capitol grass across from the Russell building.

Senate Democrats and Republicans hold their separate policy lunches from 12:30 p.m. until 2:15 p.m. with leadership press conferences to follow. Vice President Mike Pence will join Republicans at their weekly lunch, leaving the U.N. General Assembly in New York to do so and returning to the Big Apple after.

Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) lead a panel on voting rights issues at 3 p.m. in SVC-212.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Stephen Gallagher was first to guess that Jimmy Carter was the first president questioned under oath as part of a special counsel investigation into loans made to a peanut farm owned by his family. Paul Curran - the father of a trivia winner last week - was the special counsel to depose Carter.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Stephen with today's question: This senator survived a recall vote while mayor, lost the race for governor but eventually set a record for winning the most votes ever in a Senate election. Name him/her. Send your best guess my way: hcaygle@politico.com. The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle.

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** A message from A-29 for America: The A-29: Cost-Effective Training & Combat. As the global fight against terrorism continues, the U.S. military needs a cost-effective aircraft that can conduct counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations, provide close air support and armed reconnaissance, and help season fighter pilots. Trusted by air forces worldwide, the A-29 has flown nearly 40,000 combat hours and is the only combat proven light attack and reconnaissance aircraft with a U.S. Air Force military type certificate. With low per-flight-hour and life cycle costs, 150 munition configurations, and a hot production line in Jacksonville, Florida, the A-29 is at the ready to support U.S.
ground forces, extend the service life of high-end fighters and generate savings for the taxpayer faster and better than any alternative. The A-29 is truly built for the mission. Learn more about the American-made A-29 at www.BuiltForTheMission.com. **

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