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By Kevin Robillard | 09/13/2017 10:00 AM EDT


With Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

THE NARRATIVE - "Teflon Trump," by Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Data from a range of focus groups and internal polls in swing states paint a grim picture for the Democratic Party heading into the 2018 midterms and 2020 presidential election. It suggests that Democrats are naïve if they believe Trump's historically low approval numbers mean a landslide is coming. The party is defending 10 Senate seats in states that Trump won and needs to flip 17 House seats to take control of that chamber. The research, conducted by private firms and for Democratic campaign arms, is rarely made public but was described to POLITICO in interviews with a dozen top operatives who've been analyzing the results
coming in. ... Pollsters are shocked by how many voters describe themselves as "exhausted" by the constant chaos surrounding Trump, and find that there's strong support for a Congress that provides a check on him instead of voting for his agenda most of the time. But he is still viewed as an outsider shaking up the system, which people in the various surveys say they like, and which Democrats don't stack up well against. 'People do think he's bringing about change, so it's hard to say he hasn't kept his promises," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. ... More than that, no single Democratic attack on the president is sticking - not on his temperament, his lack of accomplishments or
the deals he's touted that have turned out to be less than advertised, like the Carrier plant in Indiana. Voters are also generally unimpressed by claims that Trump exaggerates or lies, and they don't see the ongoing Russia investigation adding up to much."

- Moving away from free college: "The call for free college tuition fosters both resentment at ivory tower elitism and regret from people who have degrees but are now buried under debt. Many voters see 'free' as a lie - either they'll end up paying for tuition some other way, or worse, they'll be paying for someone else's tuition who'll be getting it free off of their sweat. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Gerstein Bocian Agne Strategies conducted online polling of 1,000 Democrats and 1,000 swing voters across 52 swing districts for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Their advice to candidates afterward: drop the talk of free college. Instead, the firms urged Democrats
to emphasize making college more affordable and reducing debt, as well as job skills training, according to an internal DCCC memo."

- So what's the solution? "More and more, Democratic operatives are gravitating toward pushing for an argument that Trump is just out to make his rich friends richer, at the expense of everyone else. They believe they could include all sorts of attacks on his decisions under that umbrella, from stripping regulations on credit cards to trying to end Obamacare to pushing for corporate tax breaks. DCCC polling showed that on the question of who 'fights for people like me,' Trump and Democrats were split at 50 percent each in February, but that Democrats are now ahead by 17 points." Full story.

MONEY RACE - "Ryan transferred $2M to NRCC in August," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Ryan's fundraising accounted for more than half of what the NRCC raised in August, just before a round of GOP retirements put more battleground districts at risk ahead of a potentially difficult - and expensive - 2018 election for House Republicans. In the last week, Michigan's Dave Trott, Pennsylvania's Charlie Dent and Washington's Dave Reichert announced their plans to not run for reelection, vacating competitive seats that will prove more expensive without an incumbent congressman on the ballot. ... But the NRCC's fast fundraising pace, with nearly $34.7 million banked for the 2018 campaign by the
end of July, has emerged as a strength for House Republicans facing a growing battleground map. The DCCC had $22.8 million on hand at the end of July. ... 'Each retirement costs a couple million dollars of campaign money, and Republicans have over performed in recent years, so we have some vulnerabilities,' said former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis. '[But] any criticism Ryan gets, he's a fundraising champ. It's hard to think of anyone who has the persona that can raise money the way he's done.' Full story.

- "ActBlue passes $300M raised in 2017," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "The Democratic online fundraising platform ActBlue raised more than $32.2 million in August for campaigns and other groups, which is more than double the amount it raised in August of 2015. In a blog post, ActBlue said that this year it has raised more than $300 million overall, far ahead of its pace at this time in the 2014 and 2016 election cycles. ... Additionally, ActBlue was used by a 4,021 different candidates, organizations and committees in August, which was an all-time high in ActBlue's history." Full story.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS - "GOP Senate candidate's wife lobbied against Obamacare repeal," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey's wife lobbied against the repeal of Obamacare this spring, according to federal filings, and her work is likely to become a major issue in Morrisey's contentious Republican Senate primary with Rep. Evan Jenkins. Federal lobbying records show Denise Morrisey, a partner and co-owner of Capitol Counsel, lobbied for both the American College of Cardiology and American Academy of Dermatology during the first two quarters of 2017, when both groups were publicly opposed to repealing the Affordable Care Act. She also lobbied for the
Coalition to Protect Access to Care, which focused on preserving Medicaid funding. Those three groups combined to pay Capitol Counsel about $230,000." Full story.

REDISTRICTING WATCH - "Supreme Court blocks ruling against Texas redistricting," by Josh Gerstein: "A sharply divided Supreme Court has blocked a lower court ruling that a congressional district map Texas adopted in 2013 violates the Constitution and is the product of intentional racial discrimination. The high court announced Tuesday night that the justices voted, 5-4, along partisan lines to block a three-judge panel's ruling that Texas needed to redraw the maps or face having them redrawn by the court. The stay will remain in place until the Supreme Court receives and acts on an appeal expected to be filed by the State of Texas." Full story.

SCHUETTE ANNOUNCES - "Michigan's Schuette running for governor" by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette is running for governor, according to published remarks briefly posted on the Republican's website this afternoon. Schuette, who has long been expected to run for the state's top office, is scheduled to make the announcement during a BBQ event at the Midland County Fairgrounds this evening. "Tonight in Midland, my home town, I announced that I am running for governor of the State of Michigan!" said the remarks, which were later taken down. "In case you could not be with us or see the FacebookLive stream, I wanted to post this copy of my remarks here for
your review. Thank you for everything you do and for your support!" Full story.

- Schuette is working with FP1 Strategies and John Sellek is managing the campaign.

Days until the 2017 election: 55.

Days until the 2018 election: 419.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

DAILY WAR EAGLE - "Group linked to Bannon runs tough ad against Sen. Strange before Alabama runoff," by Alex Isenstadt: "The spot, from the pro-Trump organization Great America Alliance, describes Strange as a 'big time lobbyist' who was 'appointed by the swamp' and is 'in the pocket of Mitch McConnell.' ... The ad also features a clip of former Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley saying that he consulted with McConnell before appointing Strange to the Senate seat, which was vacated when Jeff Sessions became attorney general." Full story. Watch the ad here.

STAFFING UP - FIRST IN SCORE - DGA hires Miller as press secretary: The Democratic Governors' Association has hired Melissa Miller as press secretary. Miller was previously communications director for New Jersey Rep. Josh Gottheimer and press secretary for the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

- Newsom hires Demissie as campaign manager: Addisu Demissie, formerly the campaign manager for Sen. Cory Booker's election and a top official on Barack Obama's and Hillary Clinton's presidential campaigns, will run California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom's gubernatorial campaign.

- Wisconsin GOP promotes Zimmerman: The Wisconsin Republican Party has promoted Alec Zimmerman from press secretary to communications director.

- RNC hires state directors: The Republican National Committee announced the hiring of state directors in 17 states across the electoral map. The full list of states and hires is here.

SINGLE-PAYER TRACK MIND - "Sanders' single-payer push splits Democrats," by Elana Schor: "Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters that he would be 'looking at all of' the party's 'many good' proposals to expand health care access, but declined to back Sanders. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) declared that her priority is shielding Obamacare from a GOP repeal push that's not yet dead for good. ... Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin on Tuesday became the single-payer bill's first supporter from the class of Senate Democrats up for reelection next year in states Donald Trump carried. But other politically imperiled incumbent Democrats said "no" to Sanders. ...
Single-payer on a national level would have 'a lot of problems,' [Claire] McCaskill added, although she came out in support of allowing individuals as young as 55 to buy into Medicare. That idea is also backed by Baldwin and two other red-state Senate Democrats up for reelection next year who are declining to endorse Sanders' bill: Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. Stabenow, also a member of Democratic leadership, said Tuesday that she would keep working on her Medicare-at-55 plan 'because I think there is some bipartisan interest in that.'" Full story.

THE DAILY MENENDEZ - "Former Melgen girlfriend fumes at prosecutors during Menendez trial," by Matt Friedman: "'I've been better,' Svitlana Buchyk, a model and actress who was in her early 20s when prosecutors say Menendez allegedly helped her secure a visa to visit the United States, told [Salomon] Melgen attorney Kirk Ogrosky when he asked how she was doing. Buchyk, who was born in the Ukraine and grew up in Spain, was one of four women - three of them 20-something girlfriends to the 63-year-old married Melgen - for whom Menendez, a Democrat, allegedly pressured officials to get visas in exchange for vacations, private jet flights and political donations. Another former girlfriend,
Rosiell Polanco Suero, also testified Tuesday about Menendez's help securing her a visa." Full story.

FRONTIERS OF CAMPAIGN ISSUES - Donnelly won't return Feinstein, Durbin cash after criticism of judge: Indiana GOP Rep. Luke Messer attacked Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly on Monday for not standing up for a Notre Dame law professor who was controversially questioned about her Catholic faith during her confirmation hearing for a federal judgeship. Messer demanded Donnelly return money he received from Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Dick Durbin, who participated in the questioning. Donnelly's campaign indicated he doesn't plan to return the cash, but does support the nomination of Amy Barrett. "I'm a Catholic - my faith has always been an important part of my life - and I believe someone can be a
person of faith and at the same time uphold the law and our Constitution on the federal bench," Donnelly said in a statement. "Had I been on the Judiciary Committee, I would have steered clear of lines of questioning that seemed to focus on Professor Barrett's faith. When I interviewed her in July, we spoke at length about the 7th Circuit position, her qualifications, and understanding of the law."

D.C. FUNDRAISING CIRCUIT - Maine Democratic gubernatorial candidate Adam Cote will headline a fundraiser for his campaign in October at the Glover Park Group. Headliners, according to an invitation for the event, include Pete Rouse, Joe Lockhart, Mark Paustenbach, Ambassador Robert Gelbard and Colin Rogero among others. See the invitation here.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It was a staffing issue and it was inadvertent." - Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, explaining how his Twitter account "liked" a pornographic video on Monday night.

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