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Dear R. Hunter,

It is possible that the policies of the Trump Administration could be
enacted without creating inflation. Deregulation, lower taxes,
public-private partnerships, and structural reforms could combine to
create efficiencies without increasing government borrowing or the
federal deficit. If he is able to accomplish this, President Trump will
have brought supply side economics back into vogue, and will have
succeeded where Ronald Reagan failed. 2017 is off to quite a start.
Milton Friedman still holds sway here in Chicago where I attended the
annual meeting of the American Economic Association with 5000 economists
from around the world. Hardly a presentation or data set failed to
reference the Global Financial Crisis, a cataclysmic natural experiment.
The fact that few predicted it did not prevent many from talking with
equal confidence about America's gloomy future under President Trump.
China was a focus of many presentations, which I will be discussing in
my next report. Tariffs, repatriation of corporate profits, and new jobs
(if they are created) could all be inflationary. I was in Washington
during the Inauguration and had the opportunity to speak with a broad
swath of policy and opinionmakers. The American political shock of a
lifetime is playing out as scripted. The Trump Administration, fighting
significant headwinds, is going to try to steer the ship exactly as
promised. The benchmark that 70% of campaign promises are not kept does
not apply here to a non-politician. Based upon my discussions, I
disagree that the Trump Team is further behind in their transition
efforts than Obama was at this same time. Expected changes, such as
withdrawal from the TPP are moving swiftly and as scheduled. These first
100 days will be a fascinating time for historians, and investors.

Attached is our January report on supply side economics in the Trump
era, and my op ed

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/is-it-time-to-abolish-fha-mortgage-insurance_us_588665ebe4b0111ea60b990a

for the Huffington Post on Friday's suspension of the FHA mortgage
insurance rate cut.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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