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By Elena Schneider | 02/17/2017 10:00 AM EDT


With Daniel Strauss and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

SLOW GOING IN THE SENATE - Duffy passes on Senate bid, third House member to do so this month: Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy said on Thursday he passing on run against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. His decision comes just weeks after Rep. Susan Brooks decided not to challenge Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly and Rep. Pat Meehan opted against against a bid to unseat Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey. Earlier, Rep. Ryan Zinke accepted President Donald Trump's offer to become Interior Secretary rather than run against Montana Sen. Jon Tester.

- The Wisconsin GOP still makes a good case to make that Baldwin, a staunch liberal, is plenty vulnerable. Trump won the state in 2016 after it became redder and redder throughout the Obama years. "There are strong potential candidates ready to draw a sharp contrast with Senator Baldwin, who is out of touch with Wisconsin values and in big trouble as a result," Wisconsin GOP spokesman Alec Zimmerman said.

- So far, no decision not to run has ruined Republican chances of capturing a Senate seat. Zinke's decision would seem to be the most damaging: Top GOP operatives had courted him for months, and he had already begun polling for a run against Tester. The party is left without any obvious candidates against Tester. Comparatively, the party has full benches in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Indiana. In Indiana, operatives are now looking at Rep. Luke Messer. Businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson is already running in Wisconsin. Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald may soon enter the race, but a Wisconsin operative warned he doesn't want to fight out a messy primary.

- So what does it all mean? It could be a leading indicator of 2018's political environment, with House members looking at huge liberal protests and a dysfunctional White House and deciding not to run. Or it could just be that Brooks and Meehan are excited by policy-making opportunities in the House and Duffy wants to spend time with his eight (8!) children. But while the early pattern (and it is early) is not panicking anyone in GOP politics, it has definitely caught the eye of operatives looking to expand the GOP's numbers in the Senate.

THE MAN FROM THE PAST - "Mark Sanford has nothing left to lose. And he's here to haunt Donald Trump," by POLITICO Magazine's Tim Alberta: "Sanford swears he has nothing personal against the new president; in fact, he's heard good things about him personally from several mutual acquaintances. But, he says, he can't 'look the other way' as Trump peddles false information to suit his political aims. ... There's no shortage of irony in Sanford-who claimed to be hiking the Appalachian Trail while he was actually cavorting intercontinentally with someone not named Jenny Sanford-lecturing on 'actual truth.' And yet his willingness to do so, undergirded by a history of hard-core fiscal conservatism
and internecine conflict, has elevated the South Carolina congressman's influence behind the scenes in Washington. ... He is the unlikeliest enforcer of honesty in politics. He knows it. And so do those in South Carolina and Washington who dream of finishing off Sanford once and for all. A crippling sex scandal ought to ruin any politician's career. Crossing Trump can be treacherous. But as he braces for a blockbuster primary challenge in 2018 - while quietly eyeing other potential electoral conquests - it's his self-awareness that makes Mark Sanford the most elusive target in the Republican Party."

- "... South Carolina's political class is salivating over rumors that Ted Fienning, a Harvard-educated entrepreneur - who, in addition to being young, wealthy and telegenic, flew fighter jets in the Marine Corps - will give Sanford the toughest test of his career in 2018. When I reach Fienning by phone, he confirms his intention to run against Sanford in the primary, and says he recently met with the congressman in Charleston to tell him so. ... Considering Sanford's unbeaten streak, and his deep ties to the 1st Congressional District, many friends and foes alike in South Carolina believe he'll hold that seat as long as he wants to. But Sanford could have other ideas. ... The scenario of
Sanford challenging Lindsey Graham in a 2020 Republican primary has been the subject of excited whispers in Columbia and Washington since Trump's inauguration. Blackstone, Sanford's longtime friend, former staffer and the current Chamber of Commerce chief, brings it up unsolicited ... When I ask whether he'll rule out running against Graham, Sanford is less than equivocal." Full story .

ICYMI - "Trump unleashes fury after four long weeks," by POLITICO's Josh Dawsey and Alex Isenstadt: "After stewing in anger during four rocky weeks in the White House, President Donald Trump had his say Thursday. He spent 80 minutes in an impromptu East Room news conference shredding his critics, relitigating the election, bragging about his crowds, crowing about his accomplishments and denying, deflecting and obfuscating a series of mushrooming bad stories that have dogged his presidency and depressed his approval ratings. It was an extraordinary scene in the White House, which Trump essentially turned into a venue for a campaign rally, trashed the country's most influential news outlets,
cited approval polls and spread misinformation." Full story.

SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - Race to replace Rep. Mick Mulvaney kicks off: South Carolina's 5th District will vote to replace GOP Rep. Mick Mulvaney in a primary on May 2, followed by a potential runoff on May 16. The general election will be June 20. On the Republican side, half a dozen candidates are in the race, including state Rep. Ralph Norman, who resigned his seat Thursday, state Rep. Tommy Pope, former GOP Party Chairman Chad Connelly, State Guard commander Tom Mullikin, education activist Sheri Few and attorney Kris Wampler. The seat leans Republican, and so far, no Democratic candidate has announced a bid.

Days until the 2017 election: 263.

Days until the 2018 election: 628.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet about campaigns and Greg Maddux. @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4.

PROGRAMMING NOTE - Due to the President's Day recess, Morning Score will not publish on Monday Feb. 20. Our next Morning Score will publish on Tuesday Feb. 21.

DNC WATCH - UAW to endorse Ellison for DNC chair, via Marianne LeVine and Daniel Strauss: "The United Automobile Workers plans to endorse Rep. Keith Ellison in the race for chair of the Democratic National Committee, according to a source with knowledge of the union's plans. The UAW is one of the remaining major labor groups that hasn't weighed in on the race for DNC chair. Ellison has already picked up support from other major labor organizations including the AFL-CIO, AFSCME President Lee Saunders and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. It's unclear when the endorsement will happen. When asked about the endorsement, UAW senior communications adviser Brian Rothenberg said,
'When we're ready to put out the release we will.'" Full story.

WIDE OPEN - With Duffy out, Wisconsin field remains uncertain: Rep. Sean Duffy, who would've been a leading candidate, formally declined a challenge to Sen. Tammy Baldwin, leaving a void among Republicans. "The names of at least five potential candidates have emerged in recent weeks, with four of them - state Sen. Leah Vukmir, state Rep. Dale Kooyenga, Madison businessman Eric Hovde and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson - telling the Wisconsin State Journal on Thursday they are considering a run," The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported. "The fifth, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, didn't respond to an interview request but tweeted praise for Duffy's leadership. He previously
said he would await Duffy's decision before deciding whether to get in the race."

TAPE TO TAPE - "Chief gaming regulator secretly recorded conversation with attorney general, turned tape over to FBI," by The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston: "Nevada's chief gaming regulator surreptitiously recorded a conversation with Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who approached him about interceding in a lawsuit on behalf of his biggest donor and Nevada's wealthiest casino magnate, Sheldon Adelson, The Nevada Independent has learned. Gaming Control Board Chairman A.G. Burnett subsequently turned the recording over to the FBI, which decided no crime was committed by Laxalt, sources confirm. The attorney general had plaintively requested a meeting with Burnett to discuss a Las Vegas Sands
court action and the state's potential role in publicly agreeing with Adelson that certain government documents should be kept private, multiple sources have confirmed." Full story.

AIR WARS - McCaskill latest NRSC target on Gorsuch: The NRSC is out with a new radio ad, entitled "Hypocrite," pressuring Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill on Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch, and asking her to break a Democratic filibuster of Gorsuch. Listen to the ad here.

STAFFING UP - DCCC announces five regional vice chairs: The DCCC named regional vice chairs to work with Chairman Ben Ray Lujan, per a statement from the group. Rep. Joe Kennedy (MA-04) in the Northeast, Rep. Don McEachin (VA-04) in the South, Rep. Betty McCollum (MN-04) in the Midwest, Rep. Jared Polis (CO-02) in the Rocky Mountain West and Rep. Ted Lieu (CA-33) on the West Coast.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Flynn in FBI interview denied discussing sanctions with Russian ambassador," by The Washington Post's Sari Horwitz and Adam Entous: "Former national security adviser Michael Flynn denied to FBI agents in an interview last month that he had discussed U.S. sanctions against Russia with that country's ambassador to the United States before President Trump took office, contradicting the contents of intercepted communications collected by intelligence agencies, current and former U.S. officials said. The Jan. 24 interview potentially puts Flynn in legal jeopardy. Lying to the FBI is a felony offense. But several officials said it is unclear whether prosecutors would
attempt to bring a case, in part because Flynn may parse the definition of the word "sanctions." He also followed his denial to the FBI by saying he couldn't recall all of the conversation, officials said. Any decision to prosecute would ultimately lie with the Justice Department." Full story.

- "Donald Trump: 28 Days Later," by POLITICO's Henry C. Jackson and Matthew Nussbaum: "Donald Trump will hit the four4-week-mark Friday on a presidency that has begun like no other - full of big promises, constant controversy, the ever-present encroaching of major scandal, and zero regard for the previous norms of American politics. Beneath the noise, however, there has been a march, however halting and disorganized, toward Trump's promised radical remaking of American policy, foreign and domestic. The border wall his critics said he'd never build has been ordered, his promised rollback of regulations is in full swing, his Supreme Court pick that will likely sit on the bench for decades,
and even the 'Muslim ban' he promised during the Republican primary was put in place, however briefly, in altered form. The dual track is familiar to those who watched his campaign, during which a series of controversies and scandals garnered mass attention while few foresaw Trump's success in building a winning coalition. But a presidency is a longer race than even the campaign, and it remains to be seen if Trump can outrun his missteps the way he did last fall. So far, Trump has signed at least 23 executive actions, signed five bills into law, seen 12 members of his cabinet confirmed, nominated one justice to the Supreme Court, sent 167 (undeleted) tweets, fired one acting attorney
general and demanded at one resignation: that of his own national security adviser." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You go into poverty to serve the public," said Maine's Gov. Paul LePage weighing in on his salary, The Maine Sun Journal reported.

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