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Presented by PhRMA: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington Sep 12, 2018 View in browser
By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman and Eli Okun

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WARNING SIGNS FLASHING FOR REPUBLICANS ...

-- QUINNIPIAC has the generic ballot at +14 for Democrats. If that holds, that's wave territory. The poll

-- TWO OTHER POLLS out this morning have the Dems +12 (NPR/Marist) and +10 (POLITICO/Morning Consult).

-- REPUBLICANS keep telling us privately that the generic ballot is swinging wildly, so we shouldn't pay it much mind. But now, it's been in the mid-teens for a while, and polls across the board show a sizable lead for Democrats.

-- A NEW POLL in North Carolina has Republican Rep. George Holding down a point. Holding represents an R+7 district, which should be easy rowing for a Republican incumbent. The poll

-- "Mike Espy sees runoff as path to a Miss. Senate seat. Here's why it's a bumpy road," by McClatchy's William Douglas in Jackson, Mississippi: "Some African American lawmakers and civil rights leaders have long been wary of runoffs, claiming the system diminishes the chances of African American candidates winning elections. ... Being a candidate in 'the sensible middle' helps create a plausible, but undeniably challenging, path to the runoff and to Capitol Hill, Espy said." McClatchy

AD WARS -- "Democrats Won't Stop, Can't Stop, Spending Big Bucks on Television Ads," by The Daily Beast's Gideon Resnick and Sam Stein: "Recent primary victories by underfunded Democratic candidates have prompted a renewed push within the party for it to finally quit its addiction to television advertising in favor of digital. But not everyone is on board, raising the specter of bitter internal fights over strategic vision ...

"[W]hat was largely a tense but civil debate has become something more acrimonious after Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016 exposed what many saw as a painfully large digital advantage for Republicans." The Daily Beast

-- CNN'S DAVID WRIGHT (@DavidWright_CNN): "No Labels dropped $180,000 this week on direct mail boosting Rep. Mike Gallagher (R, WI-08), Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-08), Rep. Tom Reed (R, NY-23), Rep. John Katko (R, NY-24), Rep. Leonard Lance (R, NJ-07), Rep. Fred Upton (R, MI-06) & Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R, FL-26)."

Good Wednesday afternoon. 2020 WATCH -- NATASHA KORECKI, "The Democratic establishment roars back": "For the first time since Donald Trump's election, voters in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire - the four critical early presidential states - have spoken in statewide and congressional elections ...

"What are the lessons of the 2018 early-state primaries? Democrats are sick of losing. In statewide contests, they didn't back hardline Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton-aligned candidates so much as candidates who had a message they care about and a solid campaign operation. ... [T]here were only scattered signs that insurgent forces within the Democratic Party were in the driver's seat. Old-fashioned clout mattered." POLITICO

-- EVERYONE'S RUNNING! ... LA TIMES' LANCE PUGMIRE: "Oscar De La Hoya considering running for president in 2020" ... CNBC'S HUGH SON: "Jamie Dimon says he could beat Trump in an election: 'I'm smarter than he is'" (Dimon then said he shouldn't have said this, and he is not running.)

A message from PhRMA:

As a Medicare Part D Cliff looms for seniors, the program's successful structure is also in jeopardy. Congress can act now to protect seniors from the donut hole suddenly increasing by more than $1,200 and secure the program for the future by fixing changes that undermine its successful competitive structure.

THE PRESIDENT TWEETS -- @realDonaldTrump at 6:51 a.m.: "We got A Pluses for our recent hurricane work in Texas and Florida (and did an unappreciated great job in Puerto Rico, even though an inaccessible island with very poor electricity and a totally incompetent Mayor of San Juan). We are ready for the big one that is coming!"

... at 6:58 a.m.: "Hurricane Florence is looking even bigger than anticipated. It will be arriving soon. FEMA, First Responders and Law Enforcement are supplied and ready. Be safe!"

... at 7:03 a.m., a video message: "Get out of its way. Don't play games with it. It's a big one. Maybe as big as they've seen. And tremendous amounts of water. The storm will come; it will go. We want everybody to be safe. ... It's called Mother Nature. You never know. But we know. We love you all. We want you safe. Get out of the storm's way. Listen to your local representatives."

... at 9:58 a.m.: "Hurricane Florence may now be dipping a bit south and hitting a portion of the Great State of Georgia. Be ready, be prepared!"

... at 12:37 p.m.: "It is imperative that everyone follow local evacuation orders. This storm is extremely dangerous. Be SAFE! #HurricaneFlorence"

GOOD NEWS FILES -- WAPO'S HEATHER LONG and JEFF STEIN: "Middle-class income hit an all-time high of $61,372 last year, U.S. Census Bureau says"

IMMIGRATION WATCH -- "Despite Trump's promise to protect them, Christian refugees struggle to enter U.S.," by NBC's Dan De Luce and Julia Ainsley: "The number of Christian refugees granted entry into the U.S. has dropped by more than 40 percent over the past year, a decline of almost 11,000 refugees. They have been caught in the wider net of President Donald Trump's tough stance on immigration and refugees ...

"Even Christians from the Middle East who have lived in the U.S. for years have been caught in the administration's wider crackdown on immigration, with dozens of Iraqi Christians now in detention and facing the threat of deportation. The contrast between the administration's rhetoric and its actions has disappointed Christian activists and prompted accusations of hypocrisy from rights organizations and members of Congress." NBC

RACHAEL BADE: "Right mounts campaign to make Jim Jordan the GOP leader"

BURGESS EVERETT: "McConnell screws Dems ahead of election with October session": "Traditionally, the Senate hits the road in October of an election year. But the Senate is throwing tradition out the window this year.

"Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is planning to keep the chamber in session for a significant portion of October if not four entire weeks, costing Democrats key campaign trail days and allowing the Senate to continue its work into the fall, according to five Republican officials.

"The Kentucky Republican wants to keep cranking through as many lifetime judicial nominations and executive nominations as he can with his majority in the balance and the GOP still with the unilateral ability to confirm President Donald Trump's picks." POLITICO

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "A Series Of Suspicious Money Transfers Followed The Trump Tower Meeting," by BuzzFeed's Anthony Cormier and Jason Leopold: "[S]ecret documents reviewed by BuzzFeed News reveal a previously undisclosed aspect of the meeting: a complex web of financial transactions among some of the planners and participants ...

"The documents show Aras Agalarov, a billionaire real estate developer close to both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, at the center of this vast network ... Now, four federal law enforcement officials told BuzzFeed News, investigators are focused on two bursts of transactions that bank examiners deemed suspicious: one a short time after the meeting and another immediately after the November 2016 presidential election." BuzzFeed

-- NBC'S MIKE MEMOLI: "New group launches effort to defend Mueller probe"

WSJ'S STEPHANIE ARMOUR and PAUL OVERBERG: "Nearly 600 Russia-Linked Accounts Tweeted About the Health Law"

WAR REPORT -- "Pompeo bolsters Saudi military actions in Yemen," by Hugh T. Ferguson: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Wednesday that he has certified to Congress that the governments of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are undertaking demonstrable actions to reduce the risk of harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure in Yemen, sidestepping a dramatic action that could have sharply limited U.S. backing for Saudi Arabia's controversial war in the region.

"Congress had tried to force Pompeo's hand by inserting a provision in this year's congressional defense spending bill that required him to certify by Sept. 12 that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not taking inappropriate risks." POLITICO

-- WAPO'S MISSY RYAN (@missy_ryan): "IMPT: Mattis says Saudi Arabia and UAE are making 'every effort' to protect civilians in their #Yemen war, going even further in his support for Gulf allies than what Pompeo said in his statement."

-- AP'S KATHY GANNON in Islamabad: "Taliban say they're ready for second round of talks with U.S."

HEADS UP -- The Agenda is out with a new package on "The Future of Medicare," delving into the health care purchaser's evolution and financial situation as the U.S. population ages. Read Joanne Kenen on end-of-life care in California, Dan Diamond on decreasing per-patient spending, Paul Demko on "Medicare-for-all," Rochelle Sharpe on preventative services in Boston and more: POLITICO

THE ADMINISTRATION -- "FDA threatens to pull flavored e-cigarettes, citing 'epidemic' of teen use," by Sarah Owermohle: "The FDA today gave JUUL and four other makers of flavored e-cigarette 60 days to submit plans to curb the use of their products by youths or risk having them pulled from the market. ... The warning marked one of the most sweeping moves to curb smoking in years and comes as e-cigarettes sales have skyrocketed." POLITICO

TRADE WARS -- "U.S. Proposing New Round of Trade Talks With China," by WSJ's Lingling Wei in Beijing and Jacob M. Schlesinger: "Senior U.S. officials, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, recently sent an invitation to Chinese counterparts headed by Vice Premier Liu He, proposing another bilateral trade meeting." WSJ

AFTERNOON READ -- "Senator Tammy Duckworth on the Crash that Took Her Legs-and Having A Baby at 50," by Vogue's Rebecca Johnson: "If it had been Vietnam or any other American war, she would have died, but within 20 minutes she'd arrived at the combat hospital in Baghdad ... Her legs were gone, but she felt her feet burning-and she says she still feels this ghostly sensation every day, as if she is walking on hot desert sand. ...

"The arrival of Maile has made Duckworth a celebrity in the Senate. ... It has also opened her eyes to the challenges so many mothers face, like being forced to breastfeed in a restroom at an airport." Vogue

AP'S KEN THOMAS (@KThomasDC): "Stormy Daniels says on @TheView that she's releasing a book - 'Full Disclosure' - on Oct. 2nd."

FOR YOUR RADAR -- THE CONNECTED COMMERCE COUNCIL -- backed by Amazon, Facebook, Google and Square -- is launching a $250,000 event series to provide education and training to 200 small businesses across Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, South Carolina, Texas and other states. The campaign, Skills Connect, is trying to support the FTC's effort to better understand the role of digital tools and tech for small businesses.

MEDIAWATCH -- ERICA MARTINSON (@EricaMartinson): "Yesterday I had a quintessential journalism experience: I was laid off. There is no longer a Washington Bureau for the Anchorage Daily News. It was me. Now it's not."

SPOTTED -- JUST AS POLITICO LAUNCHES A CANADA VERTICAL: Drake at Nobu DC last night. He is performing at the Capitol One Arena tonight.

SPOTTED: Tom Sietsema at Chiko last night.

TRANSITIONS -- OBAMA ALUMNI -- Steve Glickman is launching a new consulting firm, Develop, to boost investment in economically distressed areas. He previously was head of the Economic Innovation Group and is an Obama administration alum. Bloomberg story ... Melody Barnes will be co-director of a new Democracy Initiative at the University of Virginia. She was Domestic Policy Council director in the Obama administration. ...

... Ryan Abraham is now a principal at the legislative group of Washington Council Ernst & Young. He was previously senior tax counsel for the Senate Finance Committee.

A message from PhRMA:

There's lots of talk about how to change Part D to address affordability and predictability for seniors. But there are right ways and wrong ways to do that. The budget change passed in February was the wrong way, removing incentives experts agree are necessary to drive Part D's successful market-based structure, and potentially jeopardizing the program for the future. One right way is for Congress to address the looming Part D Cliff. In 2020, the donut hole will increase by more than $1,200, raising out-of-pocket costs for the most vulnerable seniors with significant health care needs. Congress should act now on both of these issues to protect seniors from a sudden spike in out-of-pocket
costs in Part D, while securing and strengthening the program for the long-term. Learn more.

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Anna Palmer @apalmerdc

Jake Sherman @JakeSherman

Daniel Lippman @dlippman

Eli Okun @eliokun

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