EMAIL DETAILS

By Zach Montellaro | 10/03/2018 10:00 AM EDT


The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish on Monday, Oct. 8. Our next Morning Score newsletter will publish on Tuesday, Oct. 9.

NOT SO SUNSHINE STATE - Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and outgoing GOP Gov. Rick Scott met for their first debate for Nelson's seat Tuesday, and it didn't take long for the brutal tone of the ads they have traded for months to come through in the face-to-face meeting. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Gov. Rick Scott's a liar. Sen. Bill Nelson's a do-nothing. The two rivals' descriptions for each other in their first debate Tuesday underscored the bitterness ... On immigration, gun control, Florida's water pollution crisis, Cuba, health care policy and the Supreme Court nomination fight over Brett Kavanaugh, the Republican governor and the Democratic incumbent agreed on virtually nothing
during the hour-long Telemundo 51 debate."

Their fight remains one of the most important races in the battle for the Senate. In the runup to the state's late August primary (in which both were running essentially unopposed), the governor swamped Nelson on the airwaves, setting an early tone - and building a polling lead. A spot count by USA Today in August found that Scott and his allies ran more than three times as many ads as Nelson's allies (Nelson himself didn't run his first ad until after the primary), hitting the senator on everything from Medicare to immigration. Advertising Analytics tracked more than $45 million in television spending during the primary, with more than 70 percent of it spent backing Scott. Public polling
at the time showed Scott leading Nelson, too.

But as Scott's advantage on the airwaves has diminished, so has his lead in the polls. Data from the past week from Advertising Analytics still has Scott outspending Nelson on airtime, about $2.4 million to $1.8 million. But Democratic outside groups like Majority Forward and Senate Majority PAC have helped close that gap (New Republican PAC, a super PAC Scott once ran, is also spending big money on Scott's behalf). This parity is seen through the election: From the start of the general election through Election Day, Scott has $24 million total booked, while Nelson has $19 million. SMP and NRP both have about $19 million of their own booked, while Majority Forward is kicking in $7.7
million, according to data from Advertising Analytics provided to Score. Recent polling compiled by FiveThirtyEight has Nelson leading relatively narrowly, as the race seemingly shifts back towards team blue.

What does this all mean? Expect the race to remain just as nasty over the next month as Tuesday's debate was. From algae blooms in the state to ties to the president, both camps will pull out everything they've got to try to get a leg up.

MORE EARLY Q3 ANNOUNCEMENTS - Surprise, surprise: More big numbers from Democrats, with four more breaking the $1 million mark, per my colleague Elena Schneider.

- CA-22: Andrew Janz announced he raised $4.3 million, per POLITICO California's Carla Marinucci.

- CA-49: Mike Levin raised $2.2 million with $1.4 million in the bank, CNN reported.

- IA-01: Abby Finkenauer raised $1.6 million, also via CNN.

- IL-06: Sean Casten announced that he raised $2.6 million.

- KS-03: Sharice Davids topped GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) in fundraising, The Wichita Eagle reported. Davids brought in more than $2.7 million last quarter, while Yoder raised $1.1 million. Yoder has $1.3 million in cash on hand.

Good Wednesday morning. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 34.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country! Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today! Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.

MEGABUCKS - Billionaire Michael Bloomberg strikes again, donating $20 million to the Senate Majority PAC, the main Senate Democratic super PAC. "Mike was extraordinarily disappointed in the Republican leadership in the Senate and feels increasingly passionate about changing it," Bloomberg adviser Kevin Sheekey told The Washington Post's Robert Costa, who broke the news. "And he's already enthusiastic about the impact he's having on House races and increasingly confident that he can contribute to a Democratic takeover." This brings his midterm spending up to over $100 million. Bloomberg also announced that he's doubled his commitment to the League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund to $5
million at a dinner for the group. Don't call it a 2020 sign, but...

- LCV Victory Fund, NRDC Action Fund PAC and NextGen America announced they raised more than $14 million for federal and state candidates through their GiveGreen platform.

THE ELLISON INVESTIGATION - The Minnesota state DFL has wrapped its investigation into domestic abuse claims leveled against Rep. Keith Ellison, the party's state attorney general nominee. The attorney hired to lead the investigation said the claims couldn't be substantiated, and the party forwarded the report to local authorities. The Minneapolis Star Tribune's Stephen Montemayor: "The party declined to release the report produced by Susan Ellingstad, a Minneapolis attorney it hired to conduct the investigation. [Party chair Ken] Martin through a party spokesman declined a follow-up interview request, and Ellingstad did not return a call seeking comment. ... In the report, a copy of which
was obtained by the Associated Press, Ellingstad wrote [Ellison's former girlfriend Karen] Monahan was not willing to release a video she says she has of the incident. She also wrote that Monahan gave multiple explanations for why she would not release the video. ...

"The attorney, in her report, described Monahan as 'unwavering in her claim that the alleged physical altercation occurred' and found credibility both in Monahan's specificity and from accounts from several friends who reported being told about the incident months after it allegedly happened. Ellison meanwhile was 'credible in his denial' and 'truly seemed not to recall the incident ever happening,' Ellingstad wrote."

POLLS POLLS POLLS - Democrat Jennifer Wexton is up over GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in a new poll in Virginia's 10th District. The Monmouth University poll has Wexton up 50 percent to 44 percent in a standard midterm likely voter model. In a Democratic turnout surge model, Wexton leads 52 percent to 43 percent, and Wexton has a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent edge in a low turnout model. The poll was conducted Sept. 26-30 and surveyed 374 likely voters.

- Democrat J.B. Pritzker is crushing incumbent Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner in a poll of the Illinois gubernatorial race. Pritzker leads Rauner, 49 percent to 27 percent, in a South Illinois University poll. It was in the field Sept. 24-29 and surveyed 715 likely voters.

- In a Mason-Dixon poll in the Florida gubernatorial race, Democrat Andrew Gillum narrowly leads former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, 45 percent to 44 percent, Marc reported.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE - Former big-name Democratic officeholders and natural security types hosted a major fundraiser Tuesday for 20 Democratic candidates endorsed by Rep. Seth Moluton's Serve America PAC, Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss scooped. Among those listed on the invitation: former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, former Defense Secretaries Ashton Carter and Leon Panetta, former Sens. Tom Daschle and Barbara Boxer, former Obama administration chief of staff Denis McDonough and former Obama national security adviser Susan Rice.

BATTLE FOR NEW YORK - After GOP Rep. Chris Collins was indicted for insider trading, Democrats hoped they could steal another red seat. But Democrat Nate McMurray is still a serious underdog. POLITICO New York's Nahmias and Nick Niedzwiadek: "The Democrat, whose support for gun rights plays well in this conservative upstate area, raised nearly $150,000 online in three weeks after Collins was indicted in August, according to an FEC filing from ActBlue, the Democratic online fundraising platform. But his online fundraising pace had slowed dramatically by the end of September, raising questions about whether McMurray will have the resources to fight a campaign against Collins despite his legal
woes. The national party hasn't spent much yet on the race, and McMurray hasn't drawn many high-profile endorsements; he's not on the list of Democratic candidates backed last week by former President Barack Obama, for instance."

SCOTUS WARS - Republicans fearful of a 2020 primary have used the fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh to try to bolster their conservative bonafides. POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "These senators, many of whom won for the first time in 2014, say they are merely reflecting the intensity of conservative voters who are outraged at what they view as Kavanaugh's unfair treatment by liberal Democrats and the media. While many will face token challengers at a minimum, the key is to make sure they are aligned with [President Donald] Trump on key issues - and perhaps nothing is bigger going into the next election cycle than defending Trump's beleaguered nominee. ... Sen. Mike Rounds
(R-S.D.), who took a Democratic seat in 2014, said that his class of a dozen Republican senators - called the 'bear den' within the Senate - views its mandate as confirming right-leaning judges and changing the direction of the Supreme Court and lower courts."

- Trump also mocked Christine Blasey Ford, one of Kavanaugh's accusers, at a Mississippi rally. He belittled Ford for not remembering the exact details of the alleged assault, saying "How did you get home? 'I don't remember.' How'd you get there? 'I don't remember.' Where is the place? 'I don't remember.' How many years ago was it? 'I don't know,'" via POLITICO's Quint Forgey.

ANOTHER AD ROUNDUP - James, Daniel and I dug through over 60 ads that were released Tuesday for you, all lovingly rounded up here. Two ads I'm highlighting in Score: The first is a full-throated endorsement of Nevada Republican Sen. Dean Heller from the popular outgoing GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, which The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston called "probably the strongest endorsement ad I have ever seen [Sandoval] do." The second ad comes from GOP Rep. Brian Mast in Florida's 18th District, featuring a fellow amputee talking about Mast "literally [giving] me one of his legs."

TRUMP (JR) ON THE TRAIL - Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle, the vice chair of America First, will headline a pair of fundraisers on Oct. 9 for Republican Mark Harris, the nominee in North Carolina's 9th District, and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Brian Kemp, McClatchy's Katie Glueck reported. Trump Jr. also attended a private fundraiser for Maine Republicans on Monday, the Bangor Daily News reported.

FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with two new ads. The first targets Democrat Aftab Pureval in Ohio's 1st District. "The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that Pureval allegedly took $30,000 of campaign cash for personal use," the ad's narrator said. "The Enquirer has obtained secret Pureval documents, suggesting he broke the law." The "campaign cash" is referring to funds from Pureval's county clerk account that he spent in the first six months of 2018, despite not being up for reelection until 2020, while the "secret ... documents" was a poll, which was paid for from that account, that only asked about a potential House race.

- The second ad is in Kentucky's 6th District, attacking Democrat Amy McGrath on health care and tying her to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. "Socialized medicine. Higher taxes. Amy McGrath is too liberal for Kentucky," the ad's narrator says, after playing a clip of McGrath saying "my opinion single-payer is the way to go." However, McGrath does not currently support single payer. An earlier factcheck of a similar ad from her opponent, GOP Rep. Andy Barr, by the Lexington Herald-Leader notes that McGrath is talking about single payer "if we were to build a health care system from scratch." McGrath has said she supports a public option and a Medicare opt-in, according to the
Herald-Leader.

(NOT SO) BIG MONEY - The NRA's spending this cycle has fallen off a cliff. McClatchy's Ben Wieder and Greg Gordon: "So far, the NRA's political action committee and political non-profit arm have spent just over $1.6 million in 2018 on outside expenditures, such as political attack ads, and direct campaign contributions to federal candidates and groups, compared to more than $16 million on similar expenses at this point in 2014."

STEPPING BACK - Jason Kander, a rising star in the Democratic party who was running for mayor of Kansas City and was the president of Let America Vote, said he would be stepping back from politics to focus on his battle with PTSD and depression stemming from his deployment in Afghanistan. "I can't work on myself and run a campaign the way I want to at the same time, so I'm choosing to work on my depression," he wrote in an open letter to supporters. "Once I work through my mental health challenges, I fully intend to be working shoulder to shoulder with all of you again. But I'm passing my oar to you for a bit."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I have to start by saying 2020 is looking really really easy," Trump said at a Mississippi rally.

To view online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a501e4b7d15950c5d7d841114331d3b3d30170659afd7ac76252821c7d013047bd4f5103282390846578f88c5822269
To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a501e4b7d15950cb5aae710db6280f590e8a6a0920e17b25ee3fd1b024a03afe468cea6e0d1b0fa2ed7f54e6715d0c5 or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=c1c81b2ef644fde1dd3c1f6178ef6a8ea3ee660992025bd49c86ac0c27e7b43ac6c5f1e75af8a1faa5291a6e6aff560222a6877c22fcbbf7cca7acac986f329f
This email was sent to Hbiden@rosemontseneca.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA


To unsubscribe,https://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=00000166-3a3a-d41c-af7f-7effab5e0000&u=0000014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8fffbc40000&s=cd6210bc2d356da0abc99d6a357fff1ec934d279e1a3b49ca80e106c707974b4ce0004ff522cceca9fb4c3fef150703aab79dc271f5c0d7deff753f515421ae1