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The Evening: Market Decline, Chinese Arrest, A Star is Born and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Wednesday, October 10th.

Note: The Evening will be “gone fishin’” on Thursday, October 11.


** Biggest Decline
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U.S. stocks suffered their biggest decline in more than seven months today, as investors accelerated their retreat from fast-growing technology stocks in favor of shares that have been overlooked. And as the
Wall Street Journal’s Corrie Driebusch reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/quickening-retreat-from-tech-sinks-market-1539199786?mod=article_inline&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) , one of the factors contributing to the market decline is that trade tensions between the U.S. and China appear to be worsening.

Plus, as CNBC reports (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/trade-tensions-could-trigger-another-global-financial-crisis-imf.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) , the IMF warns that risks are building up in the global financial system, and a further escalation in trade tensions could push the situation over the edge.

Dive Deeper: “The IMF Makes Progress in Its 2018 External Sector Report (https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/imf-makes-progress-its-2018-external-sector-report?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ,” by the Peterson Institute’s Joseph Gagnon.

“Critical Questions: USMCA Currency Provisions Set a New Precedent (https://www.csis.org/analysis/usmca-currency-provisions-set-new-precedent?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Stephanie Segal.

“No to the Village People, but Yes to ‘Bait-and-Switch’? (https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-village-people-yes-bait-and-switch?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ” by CSIS’s Bill Reinsch.

And the new episode of the CSIS podcast, The Trade Guys, “Bilats, Tensions, and an NFL Victory (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trade-guys/id1380336613?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .”


** Chinese Official Arrested
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A Chinese intelligence official was arrested in Belgium and brought to the United States to face espionage charges, Justice Department officials said today, in a dramatic escalation of the Trump administration’s effort to crack down on Chinese spying, as the
New York Times’ Katie Benner reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/10/us/politics/china-spy-espionage-arrest.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “China and the U.S.: Choosing Between the Four “Cs” – Conflict and Containment Versus Competition and Cooperation (https://www.csis.org/analysis/choosing-between-four-cs-conflict-and-containment-versus-competition-and-cooperation?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman.


** Inter-Korean Pact
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U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has expressed “discontent” with an inter-Korean military pact reached during last month’s summit, South Korea’s foreign minister said today, in a rare disclosure of signs of disagreement with its U.S. ally, as Reuters’ Hyonhee Shin reports (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-southkorea/south-korea-says-pompeo-complained-about-inter-korean-military-pact-idUSKCN1MK21Q?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .


** New Treasury Rules on Foreign Deals Involving U.S. Tech
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Treasury officials today issued new rules requiring all foreign investors in certain deals involving critical U.S. technology to submit to national-security reviews or face fines as high as the value of their proposed transactions, as the WSJ’s Kate O’Keeffe reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-spells-out-new-rules-on-foreign-deals-involving-u-s-technology-1539172876?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “A Path to De-Globalization? (https://www.csis.org/analysis/path-de-globalization?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ” by CSIS’s Stephanie Segal.

Plus, watch the CSIS event on demand “Putting FIRRMA into Practice: What CFIUS Reform Means for Foreign Investment in the United States (https://www.csis.org/events/putting-firrma-practice-what-cfius-reform-means-foreign-investment-united-states?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ,” featuring keynote addresses by Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) and Assistant Secretary of Treasury Heath Tarbert.


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** Enroll for Spring 2019
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Now enrolling for the Spring, CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer a new Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.csis.org/programs/abshire-inamori-leadership-academy/executive-education/executive-masters-international?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 30,000
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Number of power outages already reported in Florida as Category 4 (155 mph) Hurricane Michael makes landfall.

Source: PBS (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/life-threatening-storm-surge-expected-as-hurricane-michael-approaches-florida?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** "We’re going to get to the bottom of this."
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— President Trump on the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, a contributor to the Washington Post’s global opinions section.


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
CSIS's Global Heath Policy Center launched a Commission on Strengthening America's Heath Security which aims to chart a bold vision for the future of U.S. leadership in global health security, at home and abroad. Check out their new micro website here (https://healthsecurity.csis.org/members/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt
(Photo credit: Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images). The storm surge and waves from Hurricane Michael batter the beachfront homes today in the Florida Panhandle community of Shell Point Beach, Florida.


** Recommended Reading
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"U.S Spycraft and Stealthy Diplomacy Expose Russian Subversion in a Key Balkans Vote (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/politics/russia-macedonia-greece.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ," by the
New York Times’ Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 8:30 a.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/ieas-future-petrochemicals?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) , the CSIS Energy & National Security Program will host David Turk of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for a presentation and discussion on the IEA's upcoming report, “The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards a more Sustainable Supply of Plastics and Fertilizers.”

Later, at 10:30 a.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/us-global-nutrition-investments?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) , CSIS will hold a panel discussion on global food security as well as U.S. support for global nutrition, health, and agriculture initiatives.
And at 2:00 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/chinas-turbulent-aircraft-sector-challenges-opportunities-and-prospects?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) join the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies for an in-depth look at the challenges and prospects for China’s rapidly advancing aircraft sector.


** Video
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Last night, CSIS hosted this season’s first installment of the Schieffer Series: “Democracy Promotion and America’s Global Leadership.”
The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser was joined by International Republican Institute President Daniel Twining and National Democratic Institute President Derek Mitchell to discuss their organizations’ respective visions of democracy promotion and American leadership in the world. Watch the full discussion here (https://www.csis.org/events/schieffer-series-democracy-promotion-and-americas-global-leadership?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .


** Podcasts
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Die Welt
Trade experts Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch break down the buzz around trade, how it affects policy, and how it impacts your day-to-day. Check out the latest episode on Japan following the EU's playbook by agreeing to bilateral trade talks with the U.S.

Listen on SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/episode-21?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) or Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trade-guys/id1380336613?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) .


** Smiles
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I can’t get the Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga remake of “A Star is Born” out of my head. I saw it the other night and it had the kind of impact on me that pictures in the ‘70s and ‘80s did—when movies like “Saturday Night Fever” captured the cultural zeitgeist. And I think that people are talking about “A Star is Born” in the way that they used to in the era when movies were on the tip of everyone’s tongue. Most people I know have seen “A Star is Born” or can’t wait to see it.

Lady Gaga’s performance in this film is mesmerizing. And her already iconic music has never sounded better. The country-rock that Gaga first ventured into with her record “Joanne” goes into overdrive on the “A Star is Born” soundtrack. Willie Nelson’s son Lukas Nelson produced or co-wrote nine songs on the soundtrack and appears on-screen with his backing band Promise of the Real.

Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Lori McKenna, three of country music’s best writers, co-wrote “Always Remember Us This Way (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Voo86mlxZvA&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789) ” and sang backup on it for Gaga. To me this song stands out in a movie soundtrack that should prove to stand the test of time.
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=4ce44463a2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_10_07_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-4ce44463a2-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Emma Colbran, Brad Honigberg, and Jackie Ramsay.

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