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10/03/2018 08:01 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

THINKING AHEAD -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and at least 20 other Senate Republicans are up for reelection in 2020. Though that election is 25 months away, in a sense, the campaigns have already begun. By fiercely defending beleaguered Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh against sexual misconduct allegations and Democratic efforts to stall his confirmation, many of these Republicans are already fighting off potential primary challengers. "[T]he first step toward keeping their seats with Trump atop the ticket is avoiding a Trump-fueled primary challenge," Burgess writes. "While many will face token challengers at a minimum, the key is to make sure they are aligned with
Trump on key issues."

"I've long believed that we not only need to win fights here, but we need to be seen fighting," said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas), who plans to seek reelection and anticipates a primary challenge. Among the crop of Republicans up for reelection next cycle is Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), one of three undecideds who forced a brief FBI background investigation into Kavanaugh last week. "For Collins, how she comes down on Kavanaugh could sink her in a GOP primary in 2020 or infuriate liberals so much that she draws a credible general election opponent," he notes.

"All I can do is cast the vote I think is correct," Collins said. "If I try to do a political assessment on this vote, it would be wrong given that we're talking about a Supreme Court nominee. No matter how I vote, there will be people who are very unhappy with it." If Collins were to lose a primary, senators say privately, she might have to run as an independent or mirror Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R-Alaska) 2010 write-in bid. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e3dbed4fbf962cc6e26eb32a34013246ec56e8c2624b46fa40dbc998c38c01d5348c4b567662f8412f

FBI PROBE COULD CONCLUDE TODAY -- The FBI could conclude its supplemental investigation into Kavanaugh as soon as today, though the bureau has until Friday to complete its work. Christine Blasey Ford's attorneys complained in a letter to top FBI officials that the bureau hasn't interviewed Ford or witnesses her team has identified. When the FBI's work is done, only senators will have access to its findings. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has called for the public release of a redacted version, "[b]ut Republicans are worried about breaking precedent by releasing such information, which will be made available before the Senate votes this week on Kavanaugh's nomination," Elana
and Burgess report. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e34bf42c02ed8a494642276ec41b63d0b70721292caf84f4638a090a9fd8eb5be852a53208b99460b6

The FBI has interviewed high school friends of Kavanaugh who were said to be at the small gathering where Ford alleges Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her decades ago. Kavanaugh listed some friends on his calendar as attending a July 1 party in 1982. Attorneys for Tim Gaudette and Chris Garrett say their clients have spoken to the FBI. Tom Kane declined to say whether he was interviewed, and Bernie McCarthy didn't respond to CNN's requests for comment. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e38ed255072d8e671affd2f64ffb4c09cc2e0b0c8d04e455e14b891e294139ad283384b92ad7e6435d

Related: "FBI navigates political minefield and deadline in Kavanaugh inquiry," by The Washington Post's Devlin Barrett, Matt Zapotosky, Carol D. Leonnig and Tom Hamburger: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e33ebfc23450ed6546d5c4c44047fde10c2c288668c4794a04e2078235be7c259bafdb9d5a6a3c8901 and "Many senators want at least parts of FBI report on Kavanaugh released," from The Washington Post's Seung Min Kim: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e30e43aacc8e0acce05027f12b815e5b834049e83b442693c11b5e774cfbe969a98f95836751f8230a

TRUMP MOCKS FORD -- President Donald Trump mocked Ford's Senate Judiciary Committee testimony at a rally last night in Southaven, Mississippi. Ford told the panel Kavanaugh pinned her to a bed, attempted to take off her clothes and covered her mouth to quiet her. But the laughter from Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge is what she'll never forget, she said. "How did you get home? 'I don't remember,'" Trump said at the rally, sending the supportive crowd into laughter. "How did you get there? 'I don't remember.' Where is the place? 'I don't remember.' How many years ago was it? 'I don't know. ... But I had one beer -- that's the only thing I remember.'"

Trump was ostensibly rallying for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), who needs to win at least 50 percent of the vote in a four-candidate race to avoid a late November runoff. "A vote for Cindy," Trump said, "is a vote for me." "But Trump spent much of the rally lamenting the treatment of Kavanaugh by Democrats, whose attacks, he said, had taken their toll on the judge's family," The Associated Press' Zeke Miller reports. "He even raised questions about the drinking habits of Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy in an attempt to turn the tables on Democrats who have gone after Kavanaugh's beer drinking." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e344b6dfbfe556aae76a81890de42af7d8a2976ff7eaa2e3f587b0d98ae2ffdf0fc63c0bdb9eb83b3a

Related read: "Kavanaugh's drinking spotlights Trump's 'abnormal' abstinence," via Andrew Restuccia: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e3e9d7682af4e9902de3f088de8b78d8a8f9cd2bc7667cc48dda69686f70309b6af0771df67e7a720d

HAPPY WEDNESDAY! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Oct. 3.

** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: Access to abortion gives us dignity, freedom, hope. When opponents push abortion further out of reach, or criminalize it, they deny our humanity. With heightened threats from every branch of government, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible to everyone, everywhere. **

TUESDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Jeremy B. White's report on indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter's (R-Calif.) attempt to link his opponent, Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, to radical Islamists was the winner.

President Trump says a red wave is coming on Election Day. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today!

SIGNED, BART -- Kavanaugh wrote a letter to seven Georgetown Prep classmates who would be joining him at an Ocean City, Maryland, condo for Beach Week in 1983. "It would probably be a good idea on Sat. the 18th to warn the neighbors that we're loud, obnoxious drunks with prolific pukers among us," the missive's postscript read. Kavanaugh signed the letter: "FFFFF, Bart." Kavanaugh told the Senate Judiciary Committee last week that he sometimes "had too many beers." "But his public statements don't fully capture the binge-drinking culture in which classmates say he was a core participant," The New York Times' Kate Kelly and David Enrich report. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e32a1a31bafcd1a99e360fe3802509ff71c426d88fae294650d792d8355d9a52eb585a6757f4e1620a

On the flip side, an ex-boyfriend who dated Ford in the 1990s alleges that she never mentioned being a sexual assault victim or Kavanaugh. He also says he saw Ford help a friend who was interviewing for jobs with the FBI and U.S. Attorney's Office prepare for a potential polygraph exam. "Dr. Ford explained in detail what to expect, how polygraphs worked and helped [Monica] McLean become familiar and less nervous about the exam," he wrote. "Dr. Ford was able to help because of her background in psychology." Ford told the committee she had never helped anyone prepare for a polygraph exam. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e32f8cfdc674e01ee0c147fda732245a144814b52837a10922c6aa3d6662a036a74091055a0611b2b6 and the letter:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e3fc1e6f681cc512e1575c0083f438e67036d86b1c4b09038738cfffa2a3cb4cf2a232a42e53091bbc

MARK YOUR CALENDARS -- Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will meet with members of the House Judiciary and Oversight and Government Reform Committees next Thursday for an interview about reports that he proposed secretly recording the president. "The precise format of the meeting remains unclear," Kyle notes. "Some House Republicans have insisted that Rosenstein sit for a transcribed interview that would be treated as an element of the panel's broader, long-running investigation into the Justice Department and FBI." Rosenstein oversees special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, and Democrats are casting House Republicans' inquiry as a politically motivated effort to protect
the president from the sprawling probe. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e37d0a1583098b4d702164bb46954d91fc8418678561a19b3ecdc8e4433f1341d05036f9573ab3cd8b

BLUE DOGS BACK PROBLEM SOLVERS' REFORM -- Conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats are backing the bipartisan Problem Solvers' Caucus "Break the Gridlock" proposal to change House rules. More than a dozen members of the Problem Solvers' group are willing to leverage their votes for House speaker to push candidates into considering their proposals. While the Blue Dog Coalition endorses those rules changes, the group didn't say it would withhold speaker votes for candidates who don't support them. However, "For far too long partisan games have blocked commonsense, bipartisan legislation that would have received overwhelming support if given a vote on the House floor," Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) said
in a statement.

"When Republicans and Democrats put politics aside and come together, we get things done and move our country forward," added Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas). "We need to end the era of hyper partisanship in Washington, and this proposal is a key step to make that happen." The Problem Solvers' reform package would encourage bipartisanship and debate on issues of the day. The draft of proposals: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e3e73d5ffc7f83883086ced4a3001d6983b98079cde790376aea37eff9eecaef242eeaa27b069afe51

WHITE HOUSE WARNING -- The president's advisers are planning an aggressive schedule for Trump to campaign with House candidates who have backed his agenda. As for those who have distanced themselves from the president, tough luck. A memo from White House political director Bill Stepien "essentially lays down a marker for once the dust has settled after Election Day, and it becomes clear which Republicans fared well and which did not," The New York Times' Maggie Haberman writes. "In the White House's view, ... those Republicans who are running at a distance from Mr. Trump may come to regret it when the votes are cast."

Trump's schedule will take him to congressional districts in Nevada, Minnesota, Kansas, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky. Trump's support will play well in some districts but could hurt candidates in others. After all, "Mr. Trump is a polarizing figure with the independent voters whom candidates need in congressional races," she adds. "The outcome of the midterms will have significant consequences for how the remainder of Mr. Trump's term in office plays out. A Democratic majority will have subpoena power, and party officials would be expected to use it aggressively." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e351ea2cd9cfb83d776c248f883688f6eed7da227eea3ea478f6b1c695f773d538ea782014f1b003e8

Related: "Election ahead, Trump's advisers try to get him to hold back," by The Associated Press' Catherine Lucey, Zeke Miller and Jonathan Lemire: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e342686dc96b983f8ef3676d1b785b567bb53afded025d47ebf39d9c65b2585e3312ae47b839c900f6

BLOOMBERG BOOSTS SENATE DEMS -- Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will donate $20 million to Senate Majority PAC, the primary super PAC backing Senate Democrats. "Bloomberg ... says the emotional national debate over sexual-assault allegations against President Trump's Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh has energized Democratic voters and provides an opening for the party to be more competitive in rallying women and swing voters, his advisers said Tuesday, adding that he sees last week's contentious hearings as a tipping point," Robert Costa reports for The Washington Post. Bloomberg is "extraordinarily disappointed in the Republican leadership in the Senate and feels
increasingly passionate about changing it," adviser Kevin Sheekey said. Bloomberg has already pledged $80 million to support Democratic congressional candidates. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e35965cb69fee60452b436e08426a73e1f2efef2237f814941399c51e51b7b8e8be3d860b40d34760a

HURD SPLITS WITH TOP AIDE -- Vulnerable Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) abruptly parted ways with his top political adviser, Josh Robinson, who confirmed that his political consulting firm was no longer working for Hurd. "His team has made a decision to move in a different direction and I wish him the best of success," Robinson said. "Robinson is a longtime party operative and formerly served in top positions at the Republican Governors Association and National Republican Congressional Committee," Alex Isenstadt reports. "He helped steer Hurd's campaigns to victory in 2014 and 2016 in a swing, heavily Hispanic West Texas district that has long flipped between Republicans and Democrats." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e3ef7fdb5a0e411a2566308ca2da089a32d5c550da23de74213a804051cc424d9f5755fa615318b1a2

SHALALA STRUGGLES -- It wasn't supposed to be this hard for Democrats. So many Democrats were itching to jump into the race for retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's (R-Fla.) seat that party leaders joked they couldn't keep track of all the would-be contenders. Former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala entered the race as the ninth candidate in March and escaped the crowded primary with a narrow win. Shalala "had unmatched fund-raising prowess and deep name recognition, and she was thought to be a shoo-in," The New York Times' Patricia Mazzei writes. But "her Republican rival is proving far more formidable than Democrats anticipated, leaving a seat they fully expected to flip in peril." Much more:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e3f72d740f2c793be1f1e90cf5d0ce555f68a8c2ccbe97e254add1b1204312536e658785aa3d1c9834

MCMURRAY FIGHTS TO BREAK THROUGH IN NY-27 -- Democrat Nate McMurray is up against a Republican incumbent who is seeking reelection despite being indicted on insider trading charges. It's a dream scenario for Democrats. But it may not be enough. His online fundraising pace has slowed dramatically since he raised nearly $150,000 online in the three weeks following Rep. Chris Collins' (R-N.Y.) indictment. National Democrats haven't spent much on the race, and McMurray lacks many high-profile endorsements. In short, as Laura Nahmias and Nick Niedzwiadek write, the "underfunded and little-known challenger ... still faces a serious challenge in prevailing in one of the reddest districts in the
state." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=df392d39187c41e3718d52e73893110520e0bd4f9eca81d49e87d8ae158384becf586b48309ebec6a64973d090a4ba6e

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The Senate meets at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of the House message to accompany the long-term FAA extension. At 12 p.m., the chamber will vote on the motion to concur. The House is out.

AROUND THE HILL -- Sens. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) will deliver remarks at an election readiness summit at 10 a.m. in SVC-208/209.

Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), former Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and former Reps. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.), Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.) will host a discussion to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act, which requires insurers to cover illnesses of the brain no more restrictively than illnesses of the body, at 11 a.m. 325 Russell.

Sens. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) will hold a news conference on sexual abuse in individual Olympic sports and reforms the U.S. Olympic Committee and other governing bodies must implement to ensure a safe environment for all athletes at 1 p.m. in 385 Russell.

TUESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Ritika Robertson was first to correctly guess that President Woodrow Wilson suffered a near fatal stroke on Oct. 2, 1919, that left him paralyzed on his left side and largely blind. He died four years and four months later.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Ritika: Only one president has been sworn in by a woman. Who is the president, and who was the woman? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: A recent report by nonpartisan medical experts concludes that abortion is safe and effective health care. The report makes clear that quality abortion care is threatened by medically unnecessary regulations that target abortion providers, limited training opportunities, and a lack of public funding. These restrictions punish women and undermine care.

Now more than ever, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible without shame, stigma or barriers.

Learn more and join the fight at www.liesintolaws.org/abortion **

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