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By James Arkin | 09/25/2018 09:59 AM EDT


With Daniel Strauss and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today.

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused him of sexually assaulting her when they were teenagers, both said they want to tell their story Thursday before the Senate Judiciary Committee. "I'm not going to let false accusations drive us out of this process," Kavanaugh said during an interview on Fox News with his wife by his side. "I'm not going anywhere."

Ford, in a letter to Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley, said she would share her story at Thursday's hearing. "While I am frightened, please know, my fear will not hold me back from testifying and you will be provided with answers to all of your questions."

It sets up what could be a pivotal moment in the battle for the Senate six weeks before Election Day. Even after a second accusation against Kavanaugh became public on Sunday, conversations with Republican strategists and operatives make clear the party views Kavanaugh's confirmation as a critical issue to keep the GOP base motivated in November. They fear a failure could depress conservative turnout, which is especially troubling when compared to the sky-high Democratic enthusiasm they're likely facing this fall.

For now, Republican candidates are sticking by the nominee. State Sen. Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin, for example, accused Democrats of being "engaged in an all-out, no-holds-barred character assassination" of Kavanaugh.

Meanwhile, red-state Democrats face competing pressures: Their base is fired up to defeat Kavanaugh's confirmation, but they have also faced a campaign from Republicans to support him, and President Donald Trump remains popular in their states. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, for example, called the allegations "very concerning" but said Kavanaugh had a "right to clear his name."

Thursday's hearing could prove decisive in whether Kavanaugh survives confirmation, whether any Democrats vote for him and whether any Republican Senate candidates buck the party line. Those three questions could be central to control of the Senate.

Good Tuesday morning. Your usual host Zach Montellaro is still on vacation and I'm still filling in. Thanks to Daniel and Elena for the assist today. Shoot me tips, notes, jokes or just say hello: jarkin@politico.com/@JamesArkin.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ZachMontellaro, @ec_schneider, and @DanielStrauss4.

Programming note: Our colleague Maggie Severns has departed the Campaign Pro team. But fear not, she's sticking around at POLITICO, where she'll continue reporting on money and politics. Stay in touch with her: mseverns@politico.com.

Days until the 2018 election: 42.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country! Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today! Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.

YOU'RE INVITED Help us celebrate the launch of POLITICO Pro Canada at a special breakfast event on Sept. 26 at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs. "Navigating the New Washington" will feature an intelligence briefing by POLITICO reporters who cover trade, economic policy, the White House, and the midterm elections-and an in-depth conversation with Canadian Ambassador to the U.S., David MacNaughton. Send us questions you'd like us to ask and RSVP here.

FIRE WITH FIRE - Two years after Michelle Obama's famous remark, "When they go low, we go high," some Democrats are singing a different tune, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and David Siders report. "[W]ith the coarse reality of Trump's presidency wearing on - 'We go high' has lost its resonance for many Democrats out of power in Washington and filled with rage. In the run-up to 2020, the party is sharpening its edges for a brawl."

EVERYTOWN ON OFFENSE - Everytown for Gun Safety announced plans to target 15 House districts with a $5 million digital ad campaign, Elena reports. "The pro-gun control group announced plans to target House districts embedded in suburban communities outside of cities like Atlanta, Kansas City, Miami and Minneapolis. The 15 districts are all featured on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's 'Red to Blue' target list, a program that denotes top-tier races."

FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - Democrat Matt Longjohn, who's running against Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), is out with a bio TV ad, where he promises to not support Nancy Pelosi for leader and calls for a "new generation of leaders." Longjohn casts Upton as "out-of-touch" in the ad. "I'll stand up to the leaders of any party to do what's right for southwest Michigan," Longjohn says in the ad. The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is tied to House Republican leadership, announced last week that it was adding the district to its targeted seats.

- VoteVets is up with a pair of TV ads in two competitive House districts. In Minnesota's 1st District, the group is attacking Republican Jim Hagedorn, saying he "won't fight" for veterans in Congress. The ad, part of a $660,000 buy announced earlier this month, will air from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5 in the district. The second ad features former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, who's supporting Democrat Elissa Slotkin in Michigan's 8th District. Slotkin, who's running against GOP Rep. Mike Bishop, is "exactly the kind of leader we need more of in Congress right now, a patriot who puts country over party." The ad is part of a $171,000 ad buy that will air from Sept. 25 to Oct. 8.

- CLF is releasing its first TV and digital ad in Texas' 32nd District today attacking Democrat Colin Allred, who's running against Republican Rep. Pete Sessions. The ad links Allred to Pelosi and criticizes him on taxes and the Iran Nuclear Deal. "For Pelosi, Allred is a sure bet. Loyal and liberal," the narrator says.

- End Citizens United is going up with an ad in Michigan's 8th District attacking Republican Rep. Mike Bishop over donations he took from pharmaceutical companies as a state lawmaker and congressman. The ad says Bishop blocked a bill as a state senator that would have repealed a shield law preventing drug companies from being sued, and says he voted to give the pharma industry a tax break. It's part of a $618,000 ad buy running through Oct. 8.

- Four environmental groups - the League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund, EDF Action, Environment America Action Fund and Clean Water Action - announced a $1 million effort against Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur in New Jersey's 3rd District. The first ad, from LCV Victory Fund, is here and will air in the district for three weeks.

** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers.
aarp.org/vote **

SUNSHINE STATE - A new poll showed Democrat Andrew Gillum leading Republican Ron DeSantis by four percentage points in Florida's gubernatorial race, our POLITICO Florida colleague Marc Caputo reports. In the Senate race, the poll showed Republican Gov. Rick Scott tied with Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson at 45 percent each, with 9 percent of surveyed voters undecided.

KNOCK KNOCK - SEIU field organizers knocked on 1 million doors as of last week, nearing their goal of visiting 1.2 million homes before Election Day, Pro Employment and Immigration's Ian Kullgren reported. "The door-knocking campaign is tied to field operations in 62 congressional districts to help Democrats take back the House, a spokeswoman said."

VOLUNTEER STATE - The Committee to Defend the President, a pro-Trump super PAC, announced more than $900,000 in spending in Tennessee to boost Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn in her Senate race. The spending will include TV and digital advertising and a door-knocking campaign, according to a spokesperson for the group.

ARIZONA EVOLUTION - Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema began her career as a Ralph Nader supporter who helped organize antiwar protests, Jonathan Martin writes for The New York Times. "But today, as the Democratic nominee for Senate from Arizona in one of the most pivotal races in the country, Ms. Sinema is campaigning as an altogether different person. While she is now a three-term member of Congress, Ms. Sinema is running as much on her biography - her three years spent homeless as a child - as on any issue. She is using that personal hardship to project grit and distinguish herself from 'most people in politics,' as she says."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm not going to go to benjealous.com." - Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan during his debate against Democrat Ben Jealous.

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington.
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **

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