The Evening: Iran, China, American Treasure and More

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The Evening: Iran, China, American Treasure and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Wednesday, October 3rd.


** No Friendship
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The US terminated a 1955 treaty of friendship with Iran today, signaling a further fracturing of relations between the two countries as the
FT’s Katrina Manson reports (https://www.ft.com/content/037209c8-c725-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) .

And, as Reuters reports (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-sanctions/world-court-to-rule-on-iran-plea-to-lift-us-sanctions-idUSKCN1MD0OJ?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) , the World Court today ordered the United States to ensure that sanctions against Iran, due to be tightened next month, do not affect humanitarian aid or civil aviation safety.

Dive Deeper: “Iran’s Vulnerabilities to U.S. Sanctions (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-vulnerabilities-to-u.s.-sanctions-part-1-finding-the-weak-spots?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) ,” by the Washington Institute’s Patrick Clawson.


** Oil Surge
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Oil prices notched fresh multiyear highs on Wednesday, as the market girded itself for the re-imposition of U.S. economic sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, as the
WSJ’s Christopher Alessi and Stephanie Yang report (https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-ticks-higher-on-supply-concerns-1538562854?mod=hp_lista_pos3&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “President Trump Lambasts OPEC, but Policies Also Impact Oil Prices (https://www.csis.org/analysis/president-trump-lambasts-opec-policies-also-impact-oil-prices?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Frank Verrastro and Larry Goldstein.


** China Tensions
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A high-level security dialogue between China and the United States was postponed at the request of Washington, Beijing says as bilateral tensions rise on various fronts, from trade to the military, as the
South China Morning Post’s Catherine Wong reports (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/03/us-calls-off-china-security-talks-864661?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “China and the U.S.: Choosing Between the Four ‘Cs’ – Conflict and Containment Versus Competition and Cooperation (https://www.csis.org/analysis/choosing-between-four-cs-conflict-and-containment-versus-competition-and-cooperation?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman.


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** Enroll for Spring 2019
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Now enrolling for the Spring, CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer a new Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.csis.org/programs/abshire-inamori-leadership-academy/executive-education/executive-masters-international?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** $100 million
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A North Korean hacking group dubbed APT38 is responsible for the theft of over a hundred million dollars, alleges U.S. security firm FireEye.
Source: Fortune (http://fortune.com/2018/10/03/north-korea-hacking-apt38/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** "Iran is a rogue regime, it has been a threat throughout the Middle East ... So I don't take what they say seriously at all."
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—National Security Adviser John Bolton


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
Defense360 launched a new series, FY 2018 Endgame (https://defense360.csis.org/series/fy-2018-endgame/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) . The series reflects on the strategies and policies outlined by the Trump administration over the past fiscal year and analyzes their impact on the defense sector.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt
(Photo credit: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images.) National Security Advisor John Bolton today at the White House.


** Recommended Reading
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“Why a Space Force Can Wait (https://defense360.csis.org/why-a-space-force-can-wait/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Kaitlyn Johnson.

“Why We Need a Space Force (https://defense360.csis.org/why-we-need-a-space-force/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Todd Harrison.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 10:00 a.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/csis-pertamina-banyan-tree-leadership-forum-malcolm-turnbull?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) , join CSIS for a new installment of the CSIS-Pertamina Banyan Tree Leadership Forum, featuring 29th Prime Minister of Australia Mr. Malcom Turnbull.

Later, at 1:30 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/arthur-vandenberg-legislative-architect-marshall-plan?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) , CSIS will hold a conversation with author Hank Meijer to discuss his book, Arthur Vandenberg: The Man in the Middle of the American Century.
And at 11:00 a.m. (https://www.hudson.org/events/1610-vice-president-mike-pence-to-deliver-remarks102018?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) the Hudson institute will host Vice President Vice Pence as for a speech on the administration’s policy towards China.


** Video
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Today, Ambassador Richard L. Armitage and Professor Joseph S. Nye today released a bipartisan study on the U.S.-Japan alliance (https://www.csis.org/analysis/more-important-ever?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) . Watch the full presentation, including the report’s suggested agenda for the U.S.-Japan alliance from now through 2030, here (https://www.csis.org/events/us-japan-alliance-more-important-ever?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) .


** Podcasts
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Die Welt
The Smart Women, Smart Power biweekly podcast features powerful, in-depth conversations with women leaders from around the globe who are experts in foreign policy, national security, international business, and international development.

Listen on Apple Podcasts (https://csis.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaac&id=9c105e09b6&e=e731b56470&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=da98f477e4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_02_04_55&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-da98f477e4-&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) .


** Smiles
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There are a few artists that just stay with me in a way that others do not. I’m sure you have yours too. For me, it begins with Bob Dylan and The Band. Their music is forever stamped on my soul. Same thing with the Neville Brothers and Bruce Springsteen. And then there is Tom Petty, who tragically passed away a year ago yesterday.

I’ve been listening to the new Petty collection, “An American Treasure (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx0JBnvJk24&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789) ,” a four-disc box set comprised of deeper cuts, alternate takes and unreleased songs. It’s excellent. One of the most striking gems of this collection is an early live recording of “Breakdown,” before a small audience at Capitol Studios in Hollywood. Listening to it, you feel as if you are in the room with Petty and the Heartbreakers. And it’s such a joyously groovy, extended version of the song. Indeed, Tom Petty was/is an American treasure.
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=ebbdfab68d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_03_06_40&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-ebbdfab68d-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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