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10/01/2018 07:59 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

NEW NAFTA -- Congress is unlikely to vote on the new pact the U.S., Mexico and Canada reached Sunday night until next year. The new NAFTA, which is being dubbed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, faced a key Sept. 30 deadline to provide Congress a draft of the agreement. "A formal vote in Congress won't be held until 2019, and it is still an open question whether lawmakers -- including members of the president's own party who have often clashed with him on trade -- will fall in line to support the deal," Adam Behsudi, Alexander Panetta and Doug Palmer report.

"Republicans are expected to pay close attention to the final details regarding dispute settlement and intellectual property issues, while Democrats will likely be looking for stricter labor and environmental standards," they continue. "Even without congressional approval, having the preliminary deal in hand will give the administration and vulnerable Republicans up for reelection at least the skeleton of a policy achievement to use on the trail." But leading congressional Democrats, who appear increasingly likely to be in the majority next year, say they're not convinced the new pact represents a significant shift from past trade policies that have rarely earned their support. Much more:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5ad16fd786b608848c898518e43bb2d3e37eb71eb14cab585ea9c5c67b457db2d2dd115a67860f6d7

SENATE PAUSES KAVANAUGH CONFIRMATION -- Senate Republicans are expected to move ahead with the confirmation process for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh after the FBI completes its limited background investigation into sexual misconduct allegations. President Donald Trump, however, has created confusion over the scope of the investigation. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said it would be limited to "current credible allegations" against Kavanaugh and last no more than a week. But the president rejected reports that he was limiting the probe in any way. "I want them to interview whoever they deem appropriate, at their discretion," Trump tweeted of the FBI.

To clear up the confusion, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) asked White House counsel Don McGahn and FBI Director Christopher Wray for a copy of any "written directive" sent to investigators. "McGahn is most directly involved in guiding the investigation and has been in frequent touch with Republican senators about its scope," The Washington Post's Mike DeBonis and Josh Dawsey report. A senior U.S. official said FBI interviews will be limited to Kavanaugh, Christine Blasey Ford, Debbie Ramirez and witnesses who may have been present for the alleged incidents. The FBI interviewed Ramirez on Sunday, but an adviser said Ford hadn't been contacted as of Sunday afternoon. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5cadd51c30fb0ec49b16496b82bb029f6c51f8c238f9e1ab830675f1d417b4d3f0d54e5b56f32365b

Related: "Democrats Denounce Limits on F.B.I.'s Kavanaugh Inquiry as a 'Farce,'" by The New York Times' Michael D. Shear and Robin Pogrebin: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a55ec7655454d706fd177e8851d26996c13cd9e9d8dbc462969972c67e49d0b8db937c28354b4829ae and "FBI spoke with Deborah Ramirez, second Kavanaugh accuser," from CNN's Ariane de Vogue and Jeff Zeleny: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a560abe7e7f2b514499239531cbef51d1549a8b01fce61a92cd397f5204e6f5a75192b4cf6063faa95

FLAKE'S RED FLAG -- Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) acknowledged Sunday in a "60 Minutes"
interview that Kavanaugh's Supreme Court bid is done if he's found to have lied to the Judiciary Committee. Flake last week voted to advance Kavanaugh's confirmation in committee but had a change of heart following a viral moment with sexual assault victims, who confronted him in a Capitol Hill elevator shortly after he announced he would back Kavanaugh. Flake later told colleagues he wouldn't "be comfortable" voting for Kavanaugh on the Senate floor without an FBI investigation into the allegations against him. Behind the scenes on Flake's remarkable rebellion: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5124f72384718eefcf533a5b292e6be4e93455f0b6f0555c59967eb2b8fea972aa141d735695cda85

Related reads: "'This is march or die': Kavanaugh urged to hit back hard," per Annie Karni: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5a252b3223cfd4a37ed0d9e06608ec270aaf4dbc37d8313bc924b20bfffc00b6e3f00782088fd4dc8 and "Senators digging in for last stand in Kavanaugh confirmation fight," via Quint Forgey: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5a6c4a8b2803f70a76891833ded155f90466a40ea02641f00c85a946d1af36ff198d1294050dd3902

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Oct. 1.

** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: Access to abortion gives us dignity, freedom, hope. When opponents push abortion further out of reach, or criminalize it, they deny our humanity. With heightened threats from every branch of government, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible to everyone, everywhere. **

FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Roll Call's report on 19 members of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus pledging not to support a candidate for House speaker who doesn't back the group's rules changes to "Break the Gridlock" was the winner.

MIDTERM IMPACT -- The Kavanaugh delay signals that the president and Senate Republicans are banking on two things: "that a drawn-out confirmation battle will secure a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and that the fight will give them a better chance of keeping control of the Senate in the midterm elections," The New York Times' Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns report. GOP leaders also believe backing Kavanaugh's nomination will all but ensure Democrats will control the House next year. Republicans are predicting a backlash with women and independents in dozens of competitive House races. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a54cfd7e5db0c3140c85b26f94a59ac296444f6bb2bc43596e40eef65c187e662e1bc07a11c51b25cf

TRUMP HEADING TO TENNESSEE -- President Donald Trump will follow up with his weekend West Virginia rally for GOP Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey with a rally and fundraiser today for Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who is challenging former Gov. Phil Bredesen for a Senate seat. "Trump will be in Johnson City for the events," The Associated Press reports. "A fundraiser invitation says tickets cost $10,000 per couple, including a photo with Trump; or $25,000 a couple, including the photo and a roundtable with Trump. Contributions will fuel Blackburn's joint fundraising committee. The invitation didn't specify the fundraiser's exact time and place." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5ccdaf06ceb2dd6439e9b3c6311661680b0aed984d9648a6b800d76af12739bdffcb78ececb97e959

Related: "Trump rallies in West Virginia," by CNN: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a50862aef2c8bc7cc42825d876d8b8045c2465a639c472612e9da956044733d75e0d42f7e0e4ee47c0

DEMS TO PURSUE TRUMP TAXES AFTER MIDTERMS -- House Democrats are quietly planning to use an obscure law to examine the president's tax filings without his permission. "The nearly 100-year-old statute allows the chairmen of Congress' tax committees to look at anyone's returns, and Democrats say they intend to use that power to help answer a long list of questions about Trump's finances," Brian Faler writes. "Many also want to use it to make public confidential information about Trump's taxes that he's steadfastly refused to release." But lawmakers have kept quiet to prevent riling up the president's supporters.

Trump's returns would not only answer questions about how much he earns -- and pays in taxes -- but also what potential conflicts of interests his businesses pose, any ties to Russia and other foreign governments and how his family benefits from government actions. "Publicly releasing the returns would not come without some risk for Democrats, and not all lawmakers are convinced it's a good idea, let alone legal," Faler adds. "It would be highly unusual, and surely incense the president. Some predict it would precipitate a legal war with the administration." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5946e17aa18e974f129b9dfeb4345136f601ca32e0aea09246aa8c57d9f81346623ad64cba35e5470

Related reads: "House votes to make individual tax cuts permanent," from Aaron Lorenzo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a51bcd812a16ec1baf19a56a70a40d789208805ce79726f7cece2299df956f5785800dc20d2d2d17e5 and "A Judge Ruled Congressional Democrats Can Sue Trump Over His Business Interests," per BuzzFeed News' Zoe Tillman: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a54b2279d217d0e63a458fff014dbd605236a9bf8ddbbaef404b0cf4ffbfb6d44c360c60245671b7e2

NRCC CUTS YODER AD BUYS -- The NRCC planned to spend more than $1 million in advertising to boost vulnerable Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.). Not anymore. House Republicans' campaign arm pulled the plug on the $1.2 million ad buys that were slated to begin running next week. It will spend the money elsewhere. "The decision to cut advertising ... is a hint that Republicans are pessimistic about Yoder's chances of holding his Kansas City-area district," The Hill's Reid Wilson reports. Yoder, however, has had significant help from outside groups, including the Congressional Leadership Fund, which has spent about $1.8 million on TV ads for him. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a523c65234f2e2f8ab2ca85dc5b95fd88a404647a61342b769ae1e341f64c8e1eb09fc471c8f9bf710


Also in trouble: Reps. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) and Mike Coffman (R-Colo.). CLF is canceling its planned TV ads for both members as the super PAC refocuses its funds on races leaders are confident they can win. "The organization had $1 million in TV advertising reserved for Coffman and $2.1 million for Bishop, dollars that will now be redistributed elsewhere," Alex Isenstadt writes. "Party officials say both incumbents are trailing Democratic challengers ahead of the midterm elections, and both are expected to be significantly outspent during the final weeks of their campaigns." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a57dbe1fa6c3e982da21b4fa739962b75b281c679078e5261373a83c710fe50443ee5b4a4c63972cb3

ONLINE DONORS POWER DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGNS -- Hundreds of thousands of online donations to Democratic House campaigns are countering the late-summer ad assault Republicans hoped to launch to save their majority. "Republicans have long seen their outside-money advantage as a key factor in the battle for the House, with Congressional Leadership Fund pledging to spend a massive $100 million in 2018," Elena Schneider notes. "The super PAC's plan is to attack Democrats early and often, and it unleashed a salvo of TV attack ads in 15 districts before Labor Day, seeking to disqualify Democrats before the fall campaign even heated up."

However, a rush of online money that has flowed to Democrats has allowed them to hit the airwaves earlier than ever. "Democrats in nearly 20 districts aired TV ads first to define themselves before facing GOP attacks, according to a review of TV spending totals shared with POLITICO," she writes. "In another seven districts, CLF went on offense first." Democratic candidates raised more than $35.8 million online in August, according to a POLITICO analysis of FEC data from the digital Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue. That total is nearly six times greater than the $6.2 million raised in August 2016. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5a21bd79dd9c266090060445907b8b3238bf53d38bafc916d61f8bf7e7cc5b2a6239f16eb76e7c4f6

SHE'S RUNNING? -- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told a town hall crowd over the weekend that she "will take a hard look at running for president" after the midterm elections. "Until now, Warren has responded to questions about her presidential ambitions by insisting she is focused on winning reelection to the Senate in November," the Boston Globe's Victoria McGrane writes. "On Saturday, she linked her potential interest in the nation's highest office to the damage she sees President Trump doing to the country and, more recently, to how Republicans have handled the sexual assault accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a35fe28ba05fc5a5a26c2783313113c2b1f1b2d3d1438e53cc2cddea0a404bafdfe05ebf43e5854f650ed332f61009aa

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Caleb Orr, a policy adviser for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), on Saturday married Gabby Morrongiello, who will soon be a White House reporter for POLITICO. The couple met at an off-the-record happy hour for Hill staffers and journalists at the height of the 2016 presidential campaign. Wedding pic

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The Senate meets at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of the FAA reauthorization bill. At 5 p.m., the chamber will hold a procedural vote on the motion to concur in the House amendment to the Senate amendment to the bill. The House is out.

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Joe Bookman was first to correctly guess that President James K. Polk offered James Buchanan a nomination to the Supreme Court. Buchanan ultimately declined and later became president.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Joe: The two longest lived former presidents, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, are alive today. But before now, when was the last time the two longest lived former presidents were both alive? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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** A message from National Partnership for Women & Families: A recent report by nonpartisan medical experts concludes that abortion is safe and effective health care. The report makes clear that quality abortion care is threatened by medically unnecessary regulations that target abortion providers, limited training opportunities, and a lack of public funding. These restrictions punish women and undermine care.

Now more than ever, we must continue to fight to ensure that abortion is accessible without shame, stigma or barriers.

Learn more and join the fight at www.liesintolaws.org/abortion **

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