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09/10/2018 08:00 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

PRIMARY SEASON COMING TO A CLOSE -- Primary season will end this week with voting in New Hampshire on Tuesday and Rhode Island on Wednesday. Then it's a sprint to the general election to determine control of Congress. "For both parties, the stakes are exceedingly high," The Associated Press' Julie Pace writes. Democrats are confident they can gain power in Washington by winning the House, where they could launch investigations into the Trump administration -- and even impeachment proceedings. Republicans, meanwhile, are optimistic that they can maintain control of the Senate. History, however, is not on the GOP's side.

"The president's party typically suffers big losses in the first midterm election after taking office," Pace notes. "And despite a strong economy, Republicans must also contend with the president's sagging approval rating and the constant swirl of controversy hanging over the White House." Yet Trump is betting on himself as he takes center stage in the midterm campaign, hoping to bolster turnout from his base to counter Democratic enthusiasm. Trump is expected to spend a lot of time campaigning in swing states this fall, but GOP officials say his stormy summer has put moderate and independent voters out of reach. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab168913647c274c2aab65cf75ff231a6e7a1df5387160b9b8d61bd5954d7bfaf74177cf71ba05e59f544d

Related: "Trump colors the fall campaign landscape: 'He's been the only thing that matters,'" by The Washington Post's Ashley Parker and Philip Rucker: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab168962ac90353638d069033d8f375cde37aec705448a1896b6c569e66142670c5618028b0b01e4485f0f

GOP CAVALRY MOVES TO BOLSTER CRUZ -- Even the No. 2 Republican in the Senate acknowledges that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) faces a real threat from Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas). "We're not bluffing, this is real, and it is a serious threat," said Senate Majority John Cornyn (R-Texas), who's planning an October fundraiser for Cruz at Washington's Capital Grille restaurant. "If Ted does his job and we do ours, I think we'll be fine. But if we have donors sitting on the sidelines thinking that, 'Well, this isn't all that serious,' or, 'I don't need to be concerned,' then that's a problem."

The president will also rally for Cruz next month. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick urged White House officials in a previously unreported meeting earlier this summer to send Trump to Texas to boost turnout. "Republicans [are] increasingly concerned about the senator's prospects in the reliably red state, with some expressing fear that an underperformance could threaten GOP candidates running further down the ballot," Alex Isenstadt reports. "Trump's rally is just the most public display of a Republican cavalry rushing to the senator's aid. ... Behind the scenes, the White House, party leaders and a collection of conservative outside groups have begun plotting out a full-fledged effort to bolster
Cruz." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab168983f904b7d01da12291305c366451b50aed9ef45f501f56fa956b290cd3dd71c0b0448e2ed80a8b7d

Related reads: "Top Trump Adviser Says Ted Cruz Could Lose Texas Senate Race," from The New York Times' Alexander Burns and Kenneth P. Vogel: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=33a57338d7518cf012daf1551a043eb3ff7f9fabf84aad9a7cfe0a39da8fa9a6d2f2978a04c1274093b1a504b9096fd0 and "Cruz: Democrats want Texas to be 'like California,' have 'tofu' and 'dyed hair,'" per CNN's Eli Watkins: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab16896bc8e35466ebf985bf4f495f91342c3baf3aea13a97e955910454c391c6f70a8d1caadbb3ac3185f

SUPER PACS GROW AS DEMS TURN ON THEM -- A growing number of Democratic candidates is rejecting corporate PAC money. Yet Democratic super PACs are bigger than ever. "The super PACs charged with helping Democrats take back the House and Senate are raking in record sums from donors motivated by opposition to President Donald Trump," Maggie Severns reports. The groups are now using their cash to control more of the party's core functions, expanding from focusing on TV advertising to running major field programs and digital campaigns, too. "The current system has created an ongoing, awkward dance in which Democratic candidates are calling for change while benefiting from an increasingly large
flow of outside money seeking to match Republican spending," she writes. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab1689e818329c653fdf4dbccfbe3ba977d6eea4eba1f046a50e891473e861e317f703bffbb471b0f8f1f9

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Sept. 10.

** A message from the National Confectioners Association: The confectionery industry is comprised of hundreds of family-owned businesses as well as global companies operating nearly 1,300 facilities in all 50 states. Manufacturing chocolate and candy, we directly employ 54,000 people in the U.S., and we support more than 550,000 American workers in other industries. Learn more at PowerOfSweet.com. **

FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The image of Rep. Paul Mitchell's (R-Mich.) pet goat, Ruby Sue, was the winner.

MODERATE REPUBLICANS WANT VAWA VOTE -- Dozens of moderate House Republicans are asking GOP leaders to allow a vote on the reauthorization of the bipartisan Violence Against Women Act before it expires on Sept. 30. There are only seven remaining legislative days in the House this month. "The programs provide funding to ensure safety and support for survivors, increase prevention efforts, expand educational awareness surrounding domestic violence and sexual assault, implement training for health professionals and law enforcement, and to coordinate responses across agencies," 46 members say in a letter to Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) sent late Friday
afternoon.

"We have all seen the positive impact of these programs in our districts and have met individuals in our communities who have benefited from the protections this law provides," they continue. "This is not a partisan issue. VAWA has been continually reauthorized on a bipartisan basis in Congress. We must act now to maintain and strengthen this critical law." A GOP aide tells Huddle "there is no excuse to allow this historically bipartisan law to lapse," adding, "With 8 weeks to go until the midterms, Republicans need to continue to show they are capable of governing effectively." The letter: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab16898102cbe96968676751205efa6ef896177bb176a1509fa8fe83ce01a4da54458d065d7cb88b03af80

NOT SO FAST -- The White House and congressional leaders see a vote on a second round of tax cuts as a way to bolster their economic pitch to voters and force Democrats to vote against tax relief for the middle class. The bill, which would make permanent the individual tax cuts passed in December, is expected to be unveiled this week. But it faces some opposition from House Republicans fighting to maintain control of their seats in suburban districts where the president is highly unpopular. A dozen GOP members largely from New York, New Jersey and California opposed the bill last year over its cap on state and local tax deductions.

"Some of those GOP lawmakers have openly said they would prefer to leave the tax issue alone as Congress also grapples with how to fund the government and the House potentially votes on health care measures that might be more politically beneficial to vulnerable incumbents," Nancy Cook and Bernie Becker report. "House leaders and White House officials hope it can at least pass through that chamber before the election." The Senate, meanwhile, isn't expected to take up the measure this year, and it lacks the votes to pass it. That reality, Rep. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.) told CNBC, makes passage in the House "an exercise in futility." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab1689d60fc76d7f9f65d1274b960df654f677fcf8aecb9b38ffb5a72a90d7fb7168cbb05f9272846e4fbe

NEXT UP FOR KAVANAUGH -- After four days of confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the next step is a Senate Judiciary Committee vote. Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) plans to hold the vote Thursday, but Democrats can delay it a week, pushing it back to Sept. 20. Absent united opposition and multiple GOP defections, however, there's little more they can do. "At that point, Grassley would be expected to push Kavanaugh's nomination through his panel and onto the Senate floor, setting the stage for a big political win for President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)," Bres writes. Republicans expect to confirm Kavanaugh by Oct. 1.

"The first three days of Kavanaugh hearings were by marked by intense partisan warfare, leaked documents, and dozens of arrests of anti-Kavanaugh protesters," Bres recalls. "Friday's session was much calmer. With Kavanaugh not in attendance, the fourth and final session was largely anti-climactic, although there were some bizarrely fascinating moments, such as the appearance of John Dean, one of the key players from the Watergate scandal 45 years ago." Other witnesses included Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.) and former Solicitor Generals Ted Olson and Paul Clement. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab168942f9933f94eefb3f862123cf94398afe6b93417c5b93f72092f4fca9d17c0ff70363b443a170bbdd

Related: "Kavanaugh gives no ground on abortion," via Adam Cancryn: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=33a57338d7518cf0a05d6623586e6b4f5f80ef9c6771eb32318539b05b7f6b9170952696ca99d62f3c6071f4e0184b22 and "Liberal groups urge Dems to seek perjury probe of Kavanaugh," by Elana: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab16894bf9900e37a1989074e916efa3db3aee43cfc007a411423af17bbcbf894aa6bee801bc7fb0a81c61

BOOKER MAKES MOVES IN IOWA -- Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) has four staffers on the ground in Iowa, signaling a possible 2020 White House bid. He will also speak at the Iowa Democratic Party's fall gala next month, "a key event for activists in the first state to hold presidential nominating contests," The Guardian's Ben Jacobs notes. "The senator is assisting Democratic efforts to regain control of the state legislature and raising money for Democratic candidates and progressive causes across the state." Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) also have operatives on the ground in Iowa. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab168927c11f2fbe9e93277c5b3399262edb2b5504c8e452a9d46e296636d5f96a25654438eb96f7925153

Related reads: "Booker to McConnell on ethics charges: 'Bring it!'" from Burgess: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=33a57338d7518cf01cbf12cf439037d7c456933e6264a0a32864a0fa6693810901facbaa27d5c480abac533efa362bdd and "Harris and Booker borrow Trump's tactics in Supreme Court fracas," per David Siders and Elana: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab1689f62f4be79554cbe28428d37c5680ee0ac99fa915a73b59081fbcb2d0e9dea00b1463c3f21a8c3734

MORNING BLUES -- Advisers to Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) say not to read too much into the lawmaker's tweet about leaving the Republican Party, pointing to similar statements Sasse has made about leaving the GOP before. Sasse told a Twitter user over the weekend that he "regularly" considers leaving the party. "I probably think about it every morning," he added in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday. He also cast himself as an independent who caucuses with Republicans. But advisers say no change in party affiliation is imminent, and "it's still unclear whether he intends to run for reelection in 2020," The Washington Post's Paul Kane reports. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab1689f034dd4f2a70e48d8b4a56954b2bd04ab9e3a9250e0d1b0dd0ae45a893d0ff39533757136fe9fd9f

CLINTON, OBAMA PLAY MIDTERM ROLES -- Hillary Clinton will headline a fundraiser this week for five first-time female candidates. Arena PAC, a group that coaches and advises first-time candidates, is hosting Wednesday's fundraiser, which lists Clinton as its "special guest." The event will benefit five women who are running for Congress in competitive races: Lauren Underwood in Illinois, Gina Ortiz Jones in Texas, Liuba Grechen Shirley in New York, Haley Stevens in Michigan and Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico. Clinton "has raised money for the cash-strapped Democratic National Committee, and the nonprofit organization she founded last year, Onward Together, has donated $5,000 to at least
19 congressional candidates," BuzzFeed News' Ruby Cramer writes. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab1689d9751d38f417eb9f0ad590a2aa84c3db7df613ef3b588dda3a4a958fc61647c3bb815deb8fe8b82c

Former President Barack Obama kicked off his midterm campaigning with a bang Friday, mentioning his successor by name in a speech that urged citizens to vote "because our democracy depends on it." On Saturday, he traveled to California to play a different role: to highlight seven California Democrats running in GOP-held districts. More on Obama's stop from David Siders in Anaheim, California: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab1689e275e6f1cb1d16c2295fe3367fe42928e524579b33579dbc9de791ba694faefc7dbba5fbb1b0dbff

Related: "Obama delivers full-throated rebuke of Trump's presidency," via Edward-Isaac Dovere: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=33a57338d7518cf0f784539e5c709f32ebcd1f6e7ee8dbaa3fe7e936f593c88a8490108d7df6d0018a990581e3bfd8c2 and "Obama vs. Trump: The clash everyone's waited for arrives," by Edward-Isaac Dovere and Andrew Restuccia: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d68675392ab16891ef06ea300af6d8facaa99a446a8a93f34cc9c249e49c0fb5a047e2ce5d8caf02996ba5a9dba34ed

ESTABLISHMENT GROUPS' MISSED OPPORTUNITY -- The CBC Pac has a problem. Her name is Ayanna Pressley. "The Congressional Black Caucus PAC backed her white incumbent opponent," BuzzFeed News' Darren Sands notes. "And when Pressley won anyway Tuesday, she didn't just beat Mike Capuano: She and a new generation of insurgent candidates raised deep questions about a set of big money institutions whose ties to the establishment may turn them into victims of a revolution they used to champion." That includes Emily's List, which named Pressley its Gabrielle Giffords Rising Star in 2015 but stayed out of last week's Democratic primary.

Aides close to black lawmakers says the CBC Pac board's endorsement of Capuano wasn't reflective of each member. One aide said members "were really rooting for her," but sources suggested they didn't go public because the caucus likes to "speak with one voice." "Democrats, and even Pressley herself, understand political realities surrounding loyalty," Sands adds. "But concerned Democrats say the groups have a relevancy problem, and the question going forward is if establishment groups are prepared to make taking risks on women like Pressley and New York's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez part of their mission or...nah." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=33a57338d7518cf0df1e3a964856184c4961d8140f7da95a641b9de5a2ddb2c840eab33252bdbeeba8628ce11ca231ea

TRANSITIONS -- Ann Marie Anderson has left the office of Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), where she was deputy press secretary. She is joining Kaegi Resources, a Nashville-based fundraising firm.

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Ritika Robertson was first to correctly guess that Jimmy Carter is the former commander in chief who has lived the longest since leaving the Oval Office.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- Who was the last Democrat elected to represent Texas in the Senate? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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** A message from the National Confectioners Association: For every job created in confectionery manufacturing, another ten are supported in related industries, creating a 1:10 multiplier effect. Beyond economic impact, America's leading chocolate and candy companies are committed to community engagement, responsible marketing and helping consumers manage their sugar intake. Consumers understand the unique role that chocolate and candy can play in a happy, balanced lifestyle; in fact, most people in the United States enjoy chocolate & candy about twice a week, averaging about 40 calories per day and about one teaspoon of added sugar per day from confectionery items. Confectioners are a
vital piece of the American economy, as they have been manufacturing some of the world's most iconic brands for decades. Learn more about the #PowerOfSweet at PowerOfSweet.com. **

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