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Presented by PhRMA: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington Sep 13, 2018 View in browser
By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman and Eli Okun

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP, as you know by now, said 3,000 people did not die in Puerto Rico -- but, rather, Democrats fabricated the number to make him look bad. Of course, there is no evidence that this is true, and SPEAKER PAUL RYAN, RON DESANTIS, who is running for governor of Florida, and FLORIDA GOV. RICK SCOTT, the GOP Senate candidate, have already bucked Trump on this, saying the figures were not inflated.

-- TO BE CLEAR, this is an evidence-free conspiracy theory. The 69-page GW study documenting the deaths

FROM THE WHITE HOUSE ... "This morning the President spoke with Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Mayor Bill Saffo of Wilmington, NC. The President offered his support and reiterated the federal government's willingness to help with whatever is needed."

DCCC CHAIRMAN BEN RAY LUJAN told reporters today on Capitol Hill that he believes Democrats will win the House and thinks it'll be evident early in the evening based on results on the East Coast, via ISAAC DOVERE, who reported from the pen and pad for us.

LUJAN ALSO SAID he's advising candidates to not talk about Trump: "Our candidates don't have to talk about him because he's going to talk about himself for us. President Trump is going to bring more attention to himself than anyone: He'll remind the American people of every investigation he's involved with, every disgusting tweet that is out there, of all the positions that the Trump administration has taken that is making it harder for the American people."

-- INTERESTING CAVEAT: Lujan left open the possibility that if there isn't a big Democratic wave, it could come down to extremely tight races and depend on recounts in California districts. That would mean the outcome of the election - and who controls the majority - wouldn't be known for weeks.

EXCLUSIVE ... BEHIND THE SCENES: WHAT REPUBLICANS ARE SAYING ABOUT THE LAST 54 DAYS OF THE MIDTERM CAMPAIGN ... NRCC CHAIRMAN STEVE STIVERS (R-Ohio) briefed House Republicans this morning at the Capitol Hill Club, and gave them a download on what he considers to be a successful re-election strategy. As we've noted, the generic ballot is slipping away from the Republicans.

-- During a section entitled "what you should be doing," STIVERS TOLD REPUBLICANS they need to "motivate Trump voters," "win married women," "compete among suburban voters" and "win or tie independents." NOTE: Of course, that's a tough task, since Republicans have struggled with independents and educated women just because they have hewed too closely to Trump.

-- STIVERS urged Republicans to keep advertising online, keep their image above 50 percent, localize each race and raise money. NOTE: It's been tough for Republicans to localize races during the Trump era.

-- STIVERS highlighted the generic-ballot deficit, which has been anywhere from 14 points to 3 points. "Things are very clear," Stivers quipped.

-- HOUSE MAJORITY LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CALIF.) continued his sunny demeanor about the political climate, noting that Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo and Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock -- both of whom should be endangered -- are in good shape. Curbelo's numbers have never been higher, he said, and Comstock is winning today. He said Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) has flipped his race against Amy McGrath toward him. NOTE: Barr had help from $1.1 million from the GOP super PAC. Curbelo and Comstock are constantly running races.

-- RACHAEL BADE on PAUL RYAN'S MESSAGE: "Ryan's last, midterm-sprint advice: Sell it"

DON JR. ON THE TRAIL ... The president's son is headlining a fundraiser for the Maine GOP OCT. 1 in Portland. The invite

-- THE PRESIDENT'S SON is also headlining the Pennsylvania GOP dinner Sept. 21. He's in Ohio raising money for Jim Renacci, Mike DeWine and Troy Balderson this week. And he's raising money for North Dakota Senate candidate Kevin Cramer in Fargo Sept. 24.

A message from PhRMA:

What if a couple of small fixes could protect seniors in the donut hole and save them money on out-of-pocket costs? They can. And Congress can make it happen. Congress should act now to reduce out-of-pocket costs for seniors and leave them better off than the BBA changes alone. Learn more.

MEANWHILE ... THE PRESIDENT is not talking about keeping control of the House.

-- HITTING BACK AT JAMIE DIMON -- @realDonaldTrump at 7:22 a.m.: "The problem with banker Jamie Dimon running for President is that he doesn't have the aptitude or 'smarts' & is a poor public speaker & nervous mess -- otherwise he is wonderful. I've made a lot of bankers, and others, look much smarter than they are with my great economic policy!"

... at 7:39 a.m.: "We are completely ready for hurricane Florence, as the storm gets even larger and more powerful. Be careful!"

-- ON THE INVESTIGATIONS ... at 8:06 a.m.: "More text messages between former FBI employees Peter Strzok and Lisa Page are a disaster and embarrassment to the FBI & DOJ. This should never have happened but we are learning more and more by the hour. 'Others were leaking like mad' in order to get the President! ........" ... at 8:10 a.m.: ".....'It is a cesspool of corruption, and the people who did this need to be brought to justice.' @GreggJarrett"

... at 8:25 a.m.: "'Middle-Class Income Hits All-Time High!' @foxandfriends And will continue to rise (unless the Dems get in and destroy what we have built)."

... at 10:15 a.m.: "The Wall Street Journal has it wrong, we are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us. Our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing. We will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs & making products at home. If we meet, we meet?"

Good Thursday afternoon. SCOTUS WATCH -- BURGESS EVERETT, "Kavanaugh moves toward confirmation vote": "Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley set up a final committee vote on Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh on Thursday, slotting in President Donald Trump's high court pick for a Sept. 20 panel vote. The full Senate would vote on Kavanaugh shortly after." POLITICO

2018 WATCH -- YIKES ... "Exclusive: Audio Reveals Potentially Illegal Coordination Between NRA and Montana Senate Hopeful Matt Rosendale," by The Daily Beast's Lachlan Markay: "Before the National Rifle Association dropped hundreds of thousands of dollars to try to flip a competitive, Democratic-held Senate seat, the gun-rights group's chief lobbyist apparently gave the race's Republican challenger a heads-up. ... Rosendale's remarks are potentially problematic, as the NRA-ILA, a 501(c)(4) 'dark-money' group, is legally barred from coordinating its ad buys with a federal campaign." The Daily Beast ... The audio

-- WHAT OBAMA IS UP TO ... "Obama jumps into Dem fight to reclaim Ohio," by Daniel Strauss in Columbus, Ohio: "Barack Obama is diving into Democrats' campaign to retake the Midwest on Thursday, headlining an Ohio rally for former top appointee Richard Cordray in a bid to rebuild the stricken state Democratic Party. ...

"Cordray is an awkward fit in some ways for a marquee 2018 race: The former bureaucrat, who led the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau after serving as Ohio's attorney general, has invoked his kids to defend himself against charges that he's too bland ... in a year when Democratic activists have demanded a more strident approach to politics. But Cordray insists his approach is the right fit for Ohio, where he is campaigning relentlessly on his record regulating Wall Street banks." POLITICO

-- DAVID SIDERS in Los Angeles, "'Tofu and silicon and dyed hair': Republicans gang up on California": "Republicans are increasingly looking West to find their foil - invoking California in an effort to depict Democrats as feckless and out of touch. ...

"The anti-California rhetoric now ratcheting up represents a subtle shift from past practice, when Hollywood, San Francisco and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi frequently came in for criticism - at least as much as the state as a whole. The broadened criticism reflects the more partisan profile that California cuts now as the beachhead of the anti-Trump Democratic resistance." POLITICO

ON THE BORDER -- "Separated parents would get another chance at asylum under settlement proposal," by Ted Hesson: "The proposed agreement - issued jointly by plaintiffs in three related lawsuits and the Trump administration - outlines a plan to address the asylum claims of parents and children who were split at the border.

"Parents who failed an initial interview to determine whether they had 'credible fear' to return to their home country, but who remain in the United States, would be granted a new interview under the agreement." POLITICO

THE BIG PICTURE -- "U.S. Recovery Eludes Many Living Below Poverty Level, Census Suggests," by NYT's Glenn Thrush: "The supplemental poverty measure for 2017, widely regarded by economists as more accurate, was ... 13.9 percent in 2017, essentially unchanged from the year before. That is an improvement from the recent high of 16 percent recorded in 2013. But economists and advocates for poor people say the relatively modest gains over the last few years are fragile, endangered by the Trump administration's policies and vulnerable to a long-overdue economic downturn." NYT

HEADLINES THE PRESIDENT WON'T LIKE -- "U.N. Secretary General: American Power Is in Decline, the World Is 'in Pieces,'" by The Atlantic's Uri Friedman: "[António] Guterres has reached a verdict: The United States, once the guarantor of global stability, is losing its ability to influence world events." The Atlantic

2020 WATCH -- "Meet 2020's Millennial Kingmaker," by National Journal's Hanna Trudo in Concord, New Hampshire: "Lucas Meyer, a burly 28-year-old who runs New Hampshire's biggest group for young progressives, has quietly created a back channel for presidential aspirants looking to enter the state surreptitiously. And since President Trump took office, nearly a dozen top Democrats have lumbered up north to use it. ...

"Part operative, part fundraiser, Meyer-whose love for political schmoozing goes way back to when 'Tipper Gore did a luncheon at our house'-is building the type of track record that could draw even more national Democrats into his orbit. Since becoming president of the New Hampshire Young Democrats in 2015, Meyer has led the group to double its fundraising each year." National Journal

NEXT UP ... "Republican Lawmakers Take Aim at Judges Issuing Nationwide Rulings," by WSJ's Byron Tau and Andrew Duehren: "The House Judiciary Committee will consider legislation Thursday to curb nationwide injunctions-when a federal judge on one of the U.S.'s 94 district courts issues a ruling that covers the entire country, often halting a presidential initiative, program or action. ... Although the legislation's path to enactment is far from clear, the proposal ... reflects a frustration among some conservatives and the administration about the workings of the court system in the Trump era." WSJ

SANCTIONS WATCH -- AP'S MATTHEW PENNINGTON: "U.S. blacklists NKorean-controlled IT firms in China, Russia"

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- COMING ATTRACTIONS: BRIAN HOOK, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's special envoy on Iran, is heading to the Hudson Institute next Wednesday at 9 a.m. to hold a Q&A about Iran with senior fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs.

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "Under Fire, Robert Mueller Has a Novel P.R. Strategy: Silence," by NYT's Michael M. Grynbaum: "Silence as a public relations strategy is risky, especially for someone who is impugned almost daily by Fox News pundits, Trump allies like Rudolph W. Giuliani and tweets from the president himself. Supporters fear that the fusillade is eroding public confidence in the special counsel's investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election before Mr. Mueller has a chance to present his findings. ...

"Yet veterans of similar investigations say that keeping quiet may be Mr. Mueller's only viable option, given the limited set of strategies available for federal prosecutors to communicate with the public." NYT

MOTHER JONES' DAVID CORN: "Two Republican Congressmen Hobnob With an Alleged Holocaust Denier. Again: Reps. Matt Gaetz and Dana Rohrabacher just can't quit Charles C. Johnson": Mother Jones

KNOWING RONNA ROMNEY MCDANIEL -- "This Is the Woman Who Could Help Republicans Win in November," by Glamour's Celeste Katz: "Since January 2017, when she became the chair of the [RNC], she has helped the party haul in well over $210 million, more than any previous RNC chair during a midterm election cycle. The Michigan-based mom of two has traveled more than 150,000 miles, visiting over half the states. ...

"It's easy to imagine McDaniel as one of those candidates in the arena. ... But the ugliness of her mom's 1994 U.S. Senate bid in Michigan doused any interest she might have had in making her own run. Instead she now puts her strategic chops to use behind the scenes for the GOP." Glamour

WHAT KAREN PENCE IS UP TO -- "Karen Pence wants to help ease burden for military spouses," by AP's Darlene Superville: "One example is getting states to accept out-of-state professional licenses instead of making spouses get new licenses every time they have to relocate. Mrs. Pence sees these spousal challenges as key to military readiness. ...

"It's where Mrs. Pence wants to use her influence, while staying mindful of the relatively short amount of time she has to make a difference. ... Mrs. Pence, who has a son in Marine flight school and a daughter-in-law in graduate school, said she wants to be a voice for military spouses." AP

FOR YOUR RADAR -- A group of Obama administration alumni volunteers -- Brian Forde, Paulette Aniskoff, Taryn Vogel and Allison Zelman -- are launching the 44 Fund to raise funds for their 14 peers running for Congress. The website

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- Hillary Clinton will be a special guest at House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's Ultimate Women's Power Luncheon and Issues Conference in San Francisco on Sept. 24. The event

-- "'Meet the Press' Film Festival Lineup Focuses on Midterm Issues," by Variety's Ted Johnson: "The event, to be held in Washington from Oct. 7-8, will feature 23 projects from outlets including HBO, Netflix, and the New York Times. The focus of the film festival is on issues at the forefront of this year's midterm elections." Variety

MEDIAWATCH -- Fox News and the National Merit Scholarship Program are creating the Dr. Charles Krauthammer Memorial Scholarship, which will provide college scholarships to children of Fox News and Fox Business staffers starting in 2020.

OUT AND ABOUT -- SPOTTED at Martin's Tavern last night to celebrate the restaurant's 85th anniversary and what would have been the 65th wedding anniversary of President John F. Kennedy and Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis, who got engaged there: Madeleine Albright, Vincent Gray, Billy Martin Jr. and Gina Martin, Muriel Bowser, Adrian Fenty, David Tafuri, Ed Buckley, Michael Brody, Gary Kraiss, Torrey Shallcross, Henry Rodgers, Shomari Stone, Jon Harsch, Erica Suares, Nic Breeding, Alyssa Farah, Michael O'Harro, Linda Roth, Sonya Bernhardt, Paul Cohn, Janet Donovan, Capri Cafaro, Jack Evans, Kevin Cirilli, Tom Quinn, Mary Bird, Anita Bonds and Peter Newsham.

-- SPOTTED at a "Salute to America's Farmers & Ranchers" hosted by Walmart with "The Pioneer Woman," Ree Drummond, on Capitol Hill last night: Dan Bryant, Bruce Harris, Tres Bailey, Sens. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.), Reps. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) and Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), Don Nichols, Cathy Boozman, Joyce Brayboy, Kyle Simmons, Sean Bresett, Anita Fendall and Jana Barresi.

SPOTTED: Leon Panetta at Four Seasons this morning for a breakfast fundraiser for son Jimmy Panetta's re-election campaign. ... Mark McKinnon walking on Constitution Avenue NE this morning. ... Nina Totenberg entering the Dirksen Senate Office Building this morning.

TRANSITION -- Kaya Singleton is joining the Entertainment Software Association's federal affairs team. She most recently was the congressional outreach manager at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Will McKinley, president of PooleMcKinley.

A message from PhRMA:

In 2020, a Part D Cliff looms for seniors as the threshold for catastrophic coverage will suddenly expand by $1,250, quickly raising out-of-pocket costs for the most vulnerable seniors. At the same time, changes made in the Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) earlier this year leave seniors in the Part D donut hole paying at least 5 times more than insurers for the brand medicines they rely on. But Congress can protect the most vulnerable seniors and address both of these problems right now by fixing the Cliff and restoring balance to payment responsibility in the donut hole. Together these two policy fixes reduce out-of-pocket costs for seniors with high drug spending more than the BBA changes
alone, leaving them better off and, in 2020, saving them up to 7% on their out-of-pocket costs. Learn more.

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Anna Palmer @apalmerdc

Jake Sherman @JakeSherman

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Eli Okun @eliokun

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