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By Zach Montellaro | 09/19/2018 10:00 AM EDT


The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today.

POLLS POLLS POLLS - Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has a comfortable lead over Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke in the latest survey from Texas. In the Quinnipiac University poll, Cruz leads O'Rourke 54 percent to 45 percent. In the state's gubernatorial race, GOP Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 39 percent. The poll surveyed 807 likely voters from Sept. 11-17.

- In Wisconsin, Democrat Tony Evers is leading GOP Gov. Scott Walker in a new Marquette Law School poll. Evers is up 49 percent to 44 percent. In the state's Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Leah Vukmir 53 percent to 42 percent. The poll surveyed 614 likely voters from Sept. 12-16.

- A blue state Republican governor looks strong: Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan leads Democrat Ben Jealous, 54 percent to 32 percent, in a new Goucher poll. Also in the state: Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin leads his Republican challenger Tony Campbell, 56 percent to 17 percent. The poll was in the field from Sept. 11-16, and interviewed 472 likely voters.

- A new poll in California's 39th District gives a lead to Republican Young Kim over Democrat Gil Cisneros. The Monmouth University poll has her up 46 percent to 42 percent in an "all potential voters" model. In a historical midterm model, Kim's lead grows, 51 percent to 41 percent. And in a Democratic turnout surge model she's up 49 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 402 voters from Sept. 13-16.

AD ROUNDUP - My Campaign Pro compatriot James Arkin and I watched over 70 new ads that were released Tuesday and lived to tell you about it. Some takeaways: A lot of the Democratic ads focus on preexisting conditions, highlighting the GOP effort to repeal the ACA in 2017. An emerging theme in Republican ads is attacking Medicare for all as a government takeover of health care that would strip employer-provided insurance. And in another family feud this cycle, the Congressional Leadership Fund released an ad featuring Randy Bryce's brother criticizing him. Ouch.

Good Wednesday morning. It's not quite Rick Perry on "Dancing with the Stars," but failed Arizona Senate candidate Kelli Ward has been cast in a local production of "Mamma Mia." As always email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.

RSVP NOW for #PlaybookElections in Columbus on Sept. 20 at 8 a.m. for a conversation with Republican senatorial candidate Rep. Jim Renacci and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray about the issues that matter most to 50+ voters. bit.ly/PlaybookOH

Days until the 2018 election: 48.

A SPLIT - President Donald Trump has been fuming at former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, his party's Florida gubernatorial candidate. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Marc Caputo: "The president has told close associates in recent days that he views DeSantis - who won his Aug. 28 GOP primary thanks to Trump's strong support - as profoundly disloyal for distancing himself from the president's assertion that the Hurricane Maria death toll was inflated by Democrats for political purposes. ...

"DeSantis's reaction, however, particularly piqued the president. Trump views the former congressman as politically indebted to him, people familiar with the president's thinking say, because he believes DeSantis owes his electoral success to him."

A LIGHT ON DARK MONEY? - The Supreme Court struck a blow to an effort to shield dark money groups' donors. POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Maggie Severns: "The conservative group Crossroads GPS, hoping to avoid having to disclose its donors right before the 2018 midterms, asked the Supreme Court to freeze [a] lower court's ruling and leave the old FEC regulation in place through November. But on Tuesday, the high court declined to do so. The Supreme Court's decision means groups making independent expenditures to support or oppose candidates running for Congress this fall may have a legal obligation to disclose their donors, even if they could have remained anonymous in past cycles. ...

"Just how much transparency will be required for Crossroads' and similar groups' donors remains uncertain, lawyers said. Groups that solicited donors for money to be used in specific federal races could wind up having to disclose where the funds originated. But if solicitations were more vague, donors' identities may still be protected. ... The Supreme Court's action may not be the end of the legal saga. Crossroads can still appeal the substance of [the lower court's] decision to the D.C. Circuit and on to the Supreme Court."

MIDTERM MESSAGING - Gun control is taking on a more prominent role this cycle compared to the previous midterms. The Wall Street Journal's Julie Bykowicz: "Ads promoting stricter gun regulations have aired 102,636 times across the country this year-a 22-fold increase from four years ago, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Kantar Media/CMAG data. ... Americans are more likely to see political ads promoting gun control than ones opposing stricter regulations, a reversal from four years ago. In Nevada and Florida, the turnabout is striking: Those states went from zero pro-gun control ads in 2014 to more than 45,000 this year."

ON THE AIRWAVES - House Republicans are going up with ads earlier and in places you might not expect. McClatchy's Adam Wollner: There are "at least a half-dozen House incumbents in traditionally solidly Republican seats who are attempting to reach voters with TV ads for the first time in years, or earlier in the election cycle than usual, according to data provided by the GOP media buying firm Medium Buying. ... 'There's only two ways to run: unopposed and scared. If you're not unopposed, I don't care how safe your district is, because you should be running all out, especially if you're a Republican in this environment,' said Mark Harris, a GOP operative working on several congressional
campaigns."

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE - Democrats can see a narrow path to taking control of the Senate. And POLITICO's Charlie Mahtesian and Steven Shepard have unlikely states that could help dictate control: Texas, New Jersey, Tennessee, Minnesota and Mississippi.

STILL HAPPENING - The investigation into domestic abuse allegations against Rep. Keith Ellison by the DNC and the state party are ongoing, per KSTP. Party officials didn't share details with the TV station, but Karen Monahan, the woman who is accusing Ellison, told the station "she and the investigator have spoken on the phone and in-person at her home. Monahan added that she provided text messages between her and Ellison, medical records from 2017, and notes from a therapist that she was seeing as well."

NOT HAPPY WITH THE DCCC - Democrat Andrew Janz, a prolific fundraiser who is challenging Rep. Devin Nunes in CA-22, said the DCCC is leaving him high and dry. POLITICO's David Siders: "The 34-year-old prosecutor contends that the Democratic Party's House campaign arm has cut him out of promised fundraising money and frozen him out in his bid to unseat Nunes ... . In an interview with POLITICO, Janz and his campaign manager, Heather Greven, said the DCCC misled Janz about the support he could expect from the DCCC in the Central Valley-based district. And Janz said he has asked DCCC staff and members of Congress for a five-minute call with DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján, but 'he won't
return my calls.' ... Following the June primary, he said, 'A DCCC spokesperson basically told me to my face, 'Janz, you're on your own.' ...

"A DCCC aide said the committee continues to monitor the situation and that a political staffer assigned to the race has been in the Central Valley twice. The aide said the DCCC 'has never offered any aid to Janz that it hasn't delivered.'"

BIG SPENDERS - Deborah Simon and Cynthia Simon-Skjodt, a pair of Indiana sisters, have become major Democratic donors in response to Vice President Mike Pence's rise. POLITICO's Maggie Severns has more: "The Simon sisters, as these members of Indiana's most famous business family are called around Indianapolis, are still relatively unknown figures on the national stage. But their turn to big-league giving, mostly to help Democrats retake the Senate, comes after years of donations to progressive nonprofits. ... The sisters have now donated a total of $5.5 million to Senate Democrats' PAC and have given millions more to the political arm of Planned Parenthood, the Democratic National
Committee, American Bridge 21st Century and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, among other organizations."

- EMILY's List said it will spend $37 million this cycle - with a majority of that still on the way. The Hill's Lisa Hagen: "The additional $23 million will be used on digital and TV advertising as well as mailers in the final weeks before Election Day. ... [Group president Stephanie] Schriock said the organization trained more than 5,000 women who ran for office up and down the ballot this cycle. She also noted that the group is already recruiting and training candidates looking to run in the 2020 cycle."

- NextGen America, the Tom Steyer-funded group, announced it is launching a $1 million initiative called "Black Lives rising" to mobilize young black voters with digital ads, voter contact and mailers.

IN TENNESSEE - Former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen, who is running for Senate, told a GOP tracker that he's "fine" with federal funds going to Planned Parenthood for non-abortion services. More from James: "When asked specifically about abortion services, Bredesen said: 'I don't have a problem with them doing it' and called himself 'pro-choice,' but emphasized again that federal funds aren't used for that purpose. 'I'm not the least bit interested in defunding Planned Parenthood,' Bredesen said. ... Bredesen's position is consistent with the one he held as governor, when Planned Parenthood received state funds that were prohibited from being used for abortion services. "

FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with two new testimonial ads in Ohio's 1st District, both criticizing Democrat Aftab Pureval. "Pureval is the Resistance candidate for Congress," Diane Horvath, a Morrow, Ohio, resident says in the first ad. She says "these radicals" want to abolish ICE and that "Pureval would vote with Nancy Pelosi for open borders and amnesty." Pureval himself does not support abolishing ICE and said he would not support Pelosi for party leader, according to CNN. The second ad has a testimonial from CIncinnati resident Megan McEnaney. "As a mom of four, I want a leader in Congress my family can trust. Aftab Pureval fails the
test," she says, referring to his work for a lobbying firm and a complaint about him spending money from his county campaign account while campaigning for Congress.

ABANDON SHIP - Former Kansas Sen. Nancy Kassebaum, a Republican, announced she would back Democrat Laura Kelly over Republican Kris Kobach in the state's gubernatorial battle. Per The Kansas City Star's Hunter Woodall: "Kassebaum joins former GOP governor Bill Graves, who announced earlier this month that he would also be supporting Kelly. 'I'm a Republican, but that doesn't mean you walk lock step always with the party,' she said."

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - The president will headline a fundraiser for a joint fundraising committee benefitting Nevada GOP Sen. Dean Heller, Nevada 3rd District nominee Danny Tarkanian, the NRSC and the NRCC on Friday, The Nevada Independent's Riley Snyder reported (here's the invitation). Trump is holding a rally in Nevada on Thursday.

WAY DOWNBALLOT - Democrats are feeling bullish in several attorneys general races, thanks to a Republican lawsuit to gut the ACA. From POLITICO's Alice Miranda Ollstein: "The lawsuit has already injected unexpected energy and cash into many of the 30-plus races across the country for state attorneys general - a dozen of which are seen as competitive. Democratic challengers in battleground states like Florida, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona are attacking the incumbents for bringing the lawsuit and vowing to withdraw their states from the case or join with states defending Obamacare."

FIRST IN SCORE - WEB WARS - The League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund launched a $275,000 digital ad campaign to hit three California Republicans: Rep. Steve Knight in the 25th District (ad); Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in the 48th District (ad); and Diane Harkey in the 49th District (ad). The ads targeting Knight and Harkey claim each "sides with polluters," while the Rorabacher ad plays him saying "global warming is a fraud" and argues he's "too extreme."

CAMPAIGN TOOLS - Symantec will offer political organizations a free service to alert them when a spoofed version of their website is set up. From Pro Cybersecurity's Eric Geller: "The security firm is expanding the SpoofProof service that already protects paying customers to any organization that signs up, with a specific focus on political candidates, campaign organizations and state election offices. ... 'As we sat down and tried to think, 'These are things we can contribute in terms of election security,' this idea came forward,' Kevin Haley, Symantec's director of product management for security response, told POLITICO in an interview."

FIRST IN SCORE - ENDORSEMENT CORNER - Winning for Women endorsed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). She's facing Democrat Mike Espy and Republican Chris McDaniel in a special election.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There was a lot of cynicism. I fought that with humor. When people dismiss me, I say OK, when my district is under water, I am going to go run against you," said Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), on how he responds to those in his conference who reject climate change, to the Washington Examiner.

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