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By Zach Montellaro | 07/10/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Elena Schneider, Maggie Severns, James Arkin and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

THE HIGH COURT - President Donald Trump's choice of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court vacancy puts red-state Democrats squarely in the hot seat - especially Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), all of whom voted for Justice Neil Gorsuch's confirmation last year and are seeking reelection in states Trump won overwhelmingly.

- Each said in initial statements they would consider Kavanaugh's nomination without tipping their hands at all. But the pressure is on: both from their Republican opponents, and from a panicked Democratic base hoping the party can stop Kavanaugh's nomination, despite the GOP majority in the Senate.

- The political jockeying has begun, nationally and in some of the key 2018 Senate states. The conservative Judicial Crisis Network immediately released a bio spot (backed by a $1.4 million buy), and a constellation of progressive groups - including NARAL, End Citizens United and Indivisible - are set to preview their plans today to oppose the nominee, including a national day of action on Aug. 26.

- The Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity swiftly hailed Trump's choice on Monday. AFP plans to spend seven figures on the nomination. As of Monday, AFP's 36 state affiliates were already manned with scripts for door-to-door and phone conversations, the group said. The group is readying mailers, events and tele-town halls as well.

- And some interesting SCOTUS politking, per The Washington Post's Seung Min Kim: Donnelly turned down a White House invite to attend the president's announcement, saying in a statement, "I declined so that I can meet first with the nominee in a setting where we can discuss his or her experience and perspectives." CNN reported that Heitkamp, Manchin (who later tweeted about it) and Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) were also invited but chose not to attend.

WITH THE PRESIDENT'S BLESSINGS - Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.) was in serious trouble when she failed to win her primary outright, instead being forced into a runoff against former Rep. Bobby Bright. But now, after the president's endorsement, Alabama Republicans say she is the favorite. From Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "The July 17 election between Roby and former Rep. Bobby Bright was supposed to test which Republican apostasy was worse: voting for Pelosi, or voting against Trump. But the president's tweet on a Friday morning last month, which omitted any mention of Roby's past disloyalty, upended that equation and could effectively seal her reelection."

Good Tuesday morning. Republican Michael Cloud, who won a special election last month for former Rep. Blake Farenthold's (R-Texas) seat, is expected to be sworn in today as the newest member of Congress. As always, you can email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

The entire Campaign Pro team pitched in today. Email them at sbland@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, mseverns@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @MaggieSeverns, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 119.

Upcoming election dates - July 17: Alabama primary runoffs. - July 24: Georgia primary runoffs.

Upcoming primary filing deadlines - Delaware: July 10. - Louisiana: July 20.

MORE EARLY FUNDRAISING - FL-SEN: Republican Gov. Rick Scott's campaign said he raised $10.7 million in the second quarter, his first full quarter in the race. Scott's campaign did not say how much he personally contributed, per POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon.

- ND-SEN: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) raised over $1.9 million and has $5.2 million cash on hand.

- NV-SEN: Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) raised $3.5 million and has more than $3.8 million cash on hand, via The Nevada Independent.

- OH-SEN: GOP Rep. Jim Renacci raised $2 million, according to his campaign. More from Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "The $2 million figure included donations both to Renacci's campaign and to a joint fundraising committee he has with the state Republican Party, according to a release from his campaign. The campaign did not specify a breakdown of fundraising between the two, or provide a cash on hand figure. ... The fundraising total for the second quarter does not include any self-funding from Renacci, one of the wealthiest members of Congress."

- FIRST IN SCORE - WI-SEN: Republican Kevin Nicholson's campaign raised over $1 million, per a release from his campaign.

- FIRST IN SCORE - CA-25: Democrat Katie Hill raised more than $1.3 million in the second quarter, according to a statement from her campaign.

- IA-03: Democrat Cindy Axne raised over $650,000 and has $460,000 cash on hand, per her campaign.

- IL-06: Republican Rep. Peter Roskam raised $943,508 and has $2.3 million cash on hand, per his camp.

- NH-01: Democrat Maura Sullivan raised $604,000 and has more than $1.09 million cash on hand, per WMUR.

- NJ-03: Democrat Andy Kim raised $1 million last quarter with $1.6 million in cash on hand, per his campaign.

- PA-07: Democrat Susan Wild raised $710,000, per her campaign.

- TX-31: Democrat MJ Hegar raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, with $750,000 coming in the 10 days following her viral campaign video, The Texas Tribune reported.

- TX-32: Democrat Colin Allred raised almost $1.1 million and has $900,000 in the bank, also per The Texas Tribune.

- GA-GOV: Democrat Stacey Abrams raised over $2.7 million in the most recent filing period and has $1.5 million cash on hand, per her campaign.

NRCC YANKS ENDORSEMENT - The NRCC pulled the endorsement of Seth Grossman, who has a history of controversial statements, in New Jersey's 2nd District. My scoop from Monday night: "It wasn't until Monday - when the liberal group Media Matters for America flagged that Grossman had also used his Facebook account to promote a post from a white nationalist website that said blacks were 'a threat to all who cross their paths' - that the NRCC rescinded its endorsement. 'Bigotry has no place in society - let alone the U.S. House of Representatives. The NRCC withdraws our support of Seth Grossman and calls on him to reconsider his candidacy,' [Chairman Steve] Stivers said in a statement provided
first to POLITICO. 'The people of New Jersey's 2nd District deserve an inclusive Republican candidate who will be a trusted conservative voice in Congress.'"

THE SHOW-ME STATE - Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) is in the political fight of her life against Republican Josh Hawley. POLITICO's Burgess Everett takes a ride with her with the incredible dateline of "aboard Claire McCaskill's RV in rural Missouri": "Hurtling across the state in her generously equipped campaign motor home, Claire McCaskill is informed of a massive beetle crawling on her shoulder. She promptly flicks it off, locates it on the floor of the rattling vehicle and stomps it to death. The moment is a perfect crystallization of the Democratic senator's persona - and her advantages and disadvantages in one of the most hard-fought Senate races in the country this year. She's a
longtime politician with a posh condo and a private plane. But she also has a light 'Missour-uh' twang, exudes a down-home style - and is more than willing to engage in vicious political combat."

OPPO DUMP - Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is locked in a tight GOP gubernatorial primary runoff against Lt. Gov Casey Cagle, released audio from a secretly recorded meeting between Cagle and former gubernatorial hopeful Clay Tippins. Cagle seemingly insults GOP primary voters in the recording: "The issues you talk about are the issues I care about as well, right? The problem is in a primary - and you and I are just talking off the record, frank - they don't give a shit about those things. Ok. In the general election, they care about it. Ok. But they don't care about it in a primary ... This primary felt like it was who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who
could be the craziest." In a statement to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cagle's campaign manager encouraged Kemp to "Share the transcript. PLEASE," because the recording lacks context and "we have nothing to hide."

ON THE AIRWAVES - Women Vote!, the super PAC tied to EMILY's List, is going up with a broadcast and cable buy in Kansas' 3rd District with an ad backing Sharice Davids. The buy is at least $387,000 from July 10 to 26, according to Advertising Analytics. EMILY's List endorsed Davids in May.

- The Chamber of Commerce went up with a new ad in Alabama's 2nd District promoting Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.) and bashing former Rep. Bobby Bright ahead of the GOP primary runoff. Advertising Analytics tracked cable spending of just under $10,000 from the Chamber from July 9 to 17.

- The DCCC added to its broadcast buy in Illinois' 12th District, where Democrat Brendan Kelly is facing incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Bost. It added at least $319,000 to its buy in October, per Advertising Analytics.

- FIRST IN SCORE - Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith's campaign released a new web ad highlighting GOP state Sen. Chris McDaniel's past comments criticizing Donald Trump. The ad shows a video of McDaniel saying, "Trump is not a constitutional conservative. He's just not."

ENDORSEMENT CORNER - Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) endorsed Leah Vukmir in the Wisconsin GOP gubernatorial primary, per a release from her campaign.

- Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) endorsed John James in the Michigan GOP senate race with a video.

- End Citizens United backed six Democratic challengers: Greg Stanton (AZ-09), J.D. Scholten (IA-04), Antonio Delgado (NY-19), Madeleine Dean (PA-04), Leslie Cockburn (VA-05) and Dan Kohl (WI-06).

RIDING THE WAVE - The Republican National Committee is doing all that it can to push back a blue wave. NBC News' Alex Seitz-Wald: "The RNC told NBC News it has already made 20 million traditional voter contacts by phone or door knocking this election cycle, a large number for a nonpresidential election year. That's just part of the total 487 million contacts it says it has already made this cycle, including emails opened (250 million), calls made for data gathering purposes (183 million), digital petitions or surveys completed (19 million), direct mail sent (9.6 million), and get-out-the-vote calls made (5.6 million)."

GAMING IT OUT - Rolling Stone released an edited transcript of an interview with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Tim Dickinson's interesting piece based off the interview was published a couple of weeks ago). Pelosi talks about what she thinks went wrong in 2016, her thoughts on impeachment ("it's a gift to the Republicans") and her thoughts on Democrats like Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), who have called for new leadership: "Inconsequential. They don't have a following in our caucus. None."

CUE THE YAKETY SAX MUSIC! - A Rhode Island gubernatorial candidate was rescued by the Coast Guard after his yacht hit a rock while he was playing music at a beach to try to attract attention. The AP's Jennifer McDermott: "[Joe Trillo's] strategy was to approach a beach and announce that if elected, one of the many things he would do is put garbage cans on beaches so beachgoers wouldn't have to carry their trash out in plastic bags." Plus a photo from the Coast Guard!

CODA - "I married a wealthy guy! And that somehow transforms me into a different person? It's total bullshit," McCaskill to POLITICO.

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