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By Zach Montellaro and Elena Schneider | 07/17/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Maggie Severns, Daniel Strauss and James Arkin

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

SIREN - Q2 TAKEAWAYS - 54 House Republicans were outraised by their Democratic challengers last quarter, a jump from the 43 GOP members in the first quarter, in a sign that fundraising for Republican candidates is getting worse, not better. In 25 open, battleground races, Democrats led fundraising in all but two of them. Of those Democratic challengers in GOP-held seats, 22 raised more than $1 million in the last three months. Republicans point to a candidate's cash on hand as a better metric for financial strength, but the numbers haven't improved much over the last three months. In the first quarter, 16 Republicans members had less cash in the bank than their Democratic challengers, but
in the second quarter, 15 GOP members still had less cash on hand than their Democratic opponents.

- But, and this is a big but, the Congressional Leadership Fund raised $51 million in ONE quarter, all of which will go toward holding on to the Republican majority and shoring up members who are lagging financially.

- One huge haul that's worth noting is Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), who raised the most of any sitting member this quarter. The Washington Examiner's David M. Drucker reported that Nunes raised about $5 million and has $6.1 million cash on hand.

- The House Victory project, a group of Democratic megadonors, also transferred money to 10 Democratic campaigns, each receiving somewhere in ballpark of $250,000, per an FEC report.

TONIGHT'S RUNOFF ELECTION - GOP Rep. Martha Roby will try to fend off former Rep. Bobby Bright in a primary runoff in Alabama's 2nd District tonight (you can check out the results here). The race was looking dicey for Roby coming out of the July primary, where she only got 39 percent of the vote after her opponents painted her as not supportive of President Donald Trump. But, as Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reported last week, things began to look up for her after the president tweeted an endorsement (Bright still went up with a late ad painting her as a "Never Trumper"). It also didn't hurt that the entire state GOP House delegation backed her and the Chamber of Commerce went up on air
with ads supporting her and hitting Bright for backing now-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi for speaker when he served in Congress as a Democrat. Bright gave an interview to BuzzFeed News' Alexis Levinson where he tried to paint the president's endorsement as a bad thing, saying "she told the president to step down and get out of the way, and then she went - every time he pooted, she was there to smell it." GOP residents also told Levinson that Trump's endorsement is not the first thing on their mind.

Good Tuesday morning. A fun fact I'm just now learning: Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) spent a week on a deserted island together for a Discovery special. The more you know! As always, you can email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. A thanks to the great Elena Schneider (eschneider@politico.com; @ec_schneider) for her House fundraising takeaways. Make sure you catch her and Steve Shepard today at the POLITICO Pro Summit (which will be livestreamed), where they will interview the NRCC's John Rogers and the DCCC's Dan Sena at 3:40 p.m.

The entire campaign team contributed today. Email them at sbland@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com, mseverns@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @MaggieSeverns and @JamesArkin.

JUST RELEASED: View the latest POLITICO/AARP poll to better understand Arizona voters over 50, a voting bloc poised to shape the midterm election outcome. Get up to speed on priority issues for Hispanic voters age 50+, who will help determine whether Arizona turns blue or stays red.

Days until the 2018 election: 112.

Upcoming election dates - July 24: Georgia primary runoffs. - Aug. 2: Tennessee primaries. - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries.

Upcoming primary filing deadlines - Louisiana: July 20.

** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers.
aarp.org/vote **

2016 FOREVER - The takeaway from Trump's joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin is best summed up in POLITICO's headline: "Trump publicly sides with Putin on election interference." More from Matt Nussbaum: "President Donald Trump on Monday publicly sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin over his own intelligence agencies, refusing to condemn the Kremlin for interference in the 2016 election and saying that 'I don't see any reason' why Russia would have hacked Democratic computer servers. ... Putin, for his part, denied that Russia interfered in the U.S election, though he declared that he did want Trump to win the 2016 presidential election. 'Yes, I did,' Putin
said. 'Yes I did.'"

- And how are Trump's supporters reacting to his meeting with Putin? McClatchy's Anita Kumar reported that they think the president should be able to do what he thinks has to be done (this was published before the press conference, however): "They say they admire Trump for what they think will be his strategy to show Putin he's the boss in their relationship. They praise him for a successful meeting with another autocratic leader, North Korea's Kim Jong-un. And they believe Trump has been hurt by the slow and ongoing investigation into whether Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to interfere in the 2016 presidential campaign."

SOME LAST FUNDRAISING NUMBERS - MI-SEN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) raised nearly $1.9 million with $9.6 million cash on hand, Campaign Pro's James Arkin reported.

- The Democratic Governors Association announced it raised $13 million in the second quarter, per Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss.

- The Republican Governors Association doubled the fundraising of the DGA, bringing in $26.6 million in the quarter, also from Daniel.

- The Republican Attorneys General Association raised nearly $5.5 million in the second quarter of 2018, bringing the organization's haul for the cycle to $26.6 million.

- The Democratic Attorneys General Association raised almost $2 million in the second quarter, bringing the group's total haul for the cycle to $12.2 million.

- America First Action Inc., the super PAC established to help Donald Trump's presidency, raised $5 million during the most recent quarter -- similar to the amount the group pulled in during the first three months of 2018 despite having held a major fundraiser featuring the president himself in June. America First Action also has an affiliated 501(c)(4) group, America First Policies, that raises money and does not have to disclose its quarterly fundraising. See the filing here.

THE MIDTERM MESSAGE - The script for the Affordable Care Act has also flipped: Democrats are now using it as a cudgel on Republicans, promising to defend the law. The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan: "Democrats on the front lines of the battle for Congress are talking more openly than ever about protecting the health-care law. They frequently contrast their positions with the 2017 GOP push to repeal and replace the ACA, which collapsed in the Senate after three Republicans banded together with Democrats to defeat it. ... Other factors have also made campaigning on health care more complicated for Republicans. The failed repeal effort has left a bitter taste for conservative voters who
yearned for them make good on their longtime promise to shred the law."

- Democratic gubernatorial campaigns are also casting themselves as the last line of defense for abortion rights policies. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "'This issue has been at the forefront of my campaign because down the road I see that it is not only possible but probable that Roe v. Wade would be overturned,' said former Rep. Gwen Graham, a Democratic candidate for governor in Florida. Democrats in at least a half-dozen other competitive gubernatorial races are making the same case. The moves over the past week to seize on the Supreme Court vacancy show how thoroughly President Donald Trump's performance and hot-button national issues are driving the debate in the midterms - even in
state-level contests."

DARK MONEY GETS DARKER - The IRS announced that many tax-exempt 501(c) groups won't have to disclose donors' names or addresses. Tax Pro's Aaron Lorenzo: "Under just-released guidance from the agency, organizations registered as Section 501(c) groups other than charitable groups under section 501(c)(3) no longer need to file Schedule B to Form 990 with their annual return, on which they had to list donors who'd given at least $5,000. Republicans in Congress have pushed for the change for years alongside conservative groups, arguing that the IRS has used donation information for punitive, political purposes. That's targeting Americans' First Amendment rights, according to Schedule B
opponents."

ON THE AIRWAVES - The DSCC is reserving an initial $30 million in television advertising in six battleground states. From James: "The initial round of investments from the independent expenditure arm of the DSCC will go to Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana - states with Democratic incumbents - as well as Nevada and Arizona, two of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats, according to a DSCC aide, who requested anonymity to share committee strategy. ... The DSCC aide did not provide a breakdown of how much the committee is investing in each individual state, and emphasized that this represented only the initial round of investments."

THE SCOTUS FIGHT - The conservative Judicial Crisis Network is dropping an additional $1.4 million in ads to support Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination. POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "The group's ad buy this week will bring its total spending to $3.8 million, according to an official familiar with the efforts. The latest batch of ads will target four Democratic senators from conservative states on national cable and broadcast networks in their home markets: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Doug Jones of Alabama."

- Americans for Prosperity announced it will spend six figures on a direct mail and digital ad campaign supporting Kavanaugh's confirmation. The flagship group of the Koch Brothers' political network is sending direct mail in Florida, Indiana, West Virginia and North Dakota. A digital ad will run in those four states, plus Missouri, Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Michigan, all states with Democratic senators up for reelection in 2018, as well as Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones will be up again in 2020.

CONVENTION WATCH - The Charlotte, N.C., City Council narrowly voted 5-4 to support hosting the 2020 Republican convention. The Charlotte Observer's Steve Harrison, Ely Portillo and Katie Glueck: "With their vote in favor of allowing the city manager to negotiate contracts with the Republican National Committee and the local host committee, city leaders expect to win the convention this week. The RNC site selection committee will make its decision at a vote in Austin, Texas. ... Council members debated whether Charlotte could host President Donald Trump without endorsing him and his administration's controversial policies, but they ultimately decided that the potential benefits outweigh
risks to the city."

PEEK BEHIND THE CURTAIN - National security adviser John Bolton's former super PAC was a major client of Cambridge Analytica. But Mark Groombridge, a longtime adviser to Bolton, called the data "comically bad" in an interview with The Center for Public Integrity's Dave Levinthal and Carrie Levine: "Groombridge had a front-row seat to Bolton's efforts to elect pro-national security conservatives at a time when Bolton himself was bent on boosting his personal profile and pondering a presidential run. 'He said, 'Look, this is [Robert] Mercer's group, we're going to do something with them,' Groombridge said of Bolton, who since April has served as Donald Trump's national security adviser and
has severed ties with his still-self-named super PAC. 'Bolton had $5 million reasons to keep going with Cambridge Analytica.'"

What role will Hispanic voters over 50 play in Arizona this Fall? Read POLITICO Magazine's new series "The Deciders" which focuses on this powerful voting bloc that could be the determining factor in turning Arizona blue.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I've seen Russian intelligence manipulate many people over my professional career and I never would have thought that the US President would become one of the ones getting played by old KGB hands," Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) on the Trump-Putin summit.

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington.
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **

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